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And the ‘Links Swing’ continues for another week. Sort of. Last week’s venue, Hillside, neighboured Royal Birkdale and it was apparent. This week’s venue, Fairmont St Andrews, is only four miles along the coast from the Old Course at St Andrews, but whereas the latter dates to the 15th century, the former was built in 2001. There is an attempt to make it look like the Old Course, but it isn’t. This is a links course, resort-style. The course was designed by Denis Griffiths with input from Sam Torrance and then re-designed in 2008 in preparation for the Scottish Senior Open that it hosted between 2009 and 2014. It hosted the 2020 Scottish Championship and has hosted the Hero Open since last year. The winning scores in those two events were 23- and 24-under-par, so it is not surprising to read that there will be another renovation of the course, including using some holes from the Kittocks course, in an attempt to toughen up this venue for Tour golf. In St Andrews Bay Development’s own words, ‘such a move would enhance the hopes of attracting European [sic] Tour events’. With those winning scores, this is unlikely to remain a Tour venue unless it is toughened up. As with all seaside courses, their main defence is the wind and, with a gentle breeze expected throughout, another low-scoring event is expected. With generous fairways and greens and at a length of 7,230 yards, this is links course, resort-style, and so very easy for Tour pros. With only two events played on this course, here are a couple of angles to consider. Angles to consider: 1. Tee-to-green to success This has been written about many times in these previews at low-scoring venues. Otaegui’s 2020 winning score was very low, he made 29 birdies and he naturally ranked very high in the traditional putting stats, but the strokes gained data shows that he scored well because of his tee-to-green play. He had lots of birdies because he gave himself many very good chances, rather than he had a career week on the greens. The top-3 on the leaderboard (Otaegui, Matt Wallace and Aaron Rai) also ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in strokes gained: tee-to green. They ranked, respectively, 6th, 24th and 36th in stokes gained: putting. The same was also true in 2021. Grant Forrest won the event and led the field in greens in regulation, while Calum Hill and David Law also finished in the top-5 while ranking inside the top-5 for greens in regulation as well. In terms of strokes gained stats, six of the first seven places on the leaderboard were filled with players who ranked in the top-10 for strokes gained: tee-to-green; only two of them ranked in the top-10 for strokes gained: putting. Ball control is always important around links courses and this week should be no different. 2. Course experience should also matter There was no course history to draw upon in 2020, but four of the top-5 in the 2021 Hero Open has played on this course in the 2020 Scottish Championship. Ten of the top-15 last year had played in that event, including two who had finished in the top-5 in 2020 and six of the ten had finished in the top-25. Experience on links courses should be important, but based on just one year’s history, it appeared important last year to have previously played on this resort-style links course. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Justin Walters
Walters has been very consistent recently with top-20 finishes in three of his last four DP World Tour events before competing in the two PGA Tour events this month. Before that, he had finished 3rd in the British Masters in May. He does have a very good history on this course, finishing 16th in 2020 when shooting 63 in the final round, and then finished 8th in this event last year. As a player who ranks within the top-20 in greens in regulation on the DP World Tour, he has the type of game that has fared well here in the past and should so again this week. Brandon Stone
Stone also finished 16th in the 2020 Scottish Championship here, but that is just part of a wider success that he has had on courses in East Scotland. He won the 2018 Scottish Open at Gullane, has two top-15 finishes in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and finished in the top-20 in the Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. His form is good with a top-5 finish in the European Open and a top-15 finish in the BMW International Open last month, but it is his success on courses in this area that put him on the shortlist this week. Masahiro Kawamura
Sticking with Kawamura even though he missed the cut again last week. He shot a final round 64 last year to finish in the top-20 here so he has had success here and, prior to his current run of missed cuts, he finished 5th in the European Open last month. He fits the profile of a player who should player well here – he ranks inside the top-10 for driving accuracy and top-35 for greens in regulation on Tour this year – so warrants another chance at increasing odds. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Justin Walters 66/1 (Skybet, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 22nd 1pt e.w. Brandon Stone 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 63rd 1pt e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 70/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 14th
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