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The last but certainly the least of the three events on the autumn Spanish leg on the DP World Tour. The field is certainly stronger than last year when there was only one player who ranked inside the top-35 of the Race to Dubai or inside the top-100 in World Rankings – the respective figures this year are seven and three – but it is difficult to match the history of the Open de Espana or the legacy of Valderrama. The Tour returned to Mallorca last year after a ten-year absence after the Trophee Hassan II had been cancelled less than 12 weeks beforehand and is retained this week with the Moroccan event still unplayed since 2019. Whereas last year’s course had previously been used on Tour in the 1980s and 1990s, there is no such history with this year’s venue, Son Muntaner Golf Club. Designed by Kurt Rossknecht and opened in 2000, this is typical Spanish parkland resort track. It underwent a major overhaul in 2016 with the reseeding of all fairways and greens, which now makes this an eligible venue for a Tour event. But measuring less than 7,000 yards and little to indicate this will play anything other than a resort track, this should be a very straightforward task for Tour pros. With such a lack of course history and only one event played in Mallorca in the last decade, there are only two angles offered this week. Angles to consider: 1. Approach stats are key indicators to low scoring This was a very common angle when resort courses were common during the 2020 season. If low-scoring is to be expected, this can easily be described as a putting contest, but it is the ability to hit approach shots close that creates those birdie opportunities. Until the DP World Tour matches the PGA Tour and publishes data on performance at various yardages, the composite strokes gained: approach the green stat will be the best predictor of capacity to shoot low scores. 2. Avoid players still to earn their 2023 Tour Card For all Angel Hidalgo’s emotions on Sunday after securing his Tour Card for 2023, it must remembered that he was in second place at start of the final round and failed to record a single birdie as he hung on to finish 4th. That pressure of securing a Tour Card means ‘bubble players’ are unlikely to take to risks to win the event as future playing rights are the primary objective. A similar thing happened last year: the winners of the three full-field events after Valderrama were Jeff Winter, Thomas Pieters and Joachim B. Hansen. All three had already secured their playing rights for 2022. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Julien Brun
The Challenge Tour graduate, who won in Spain on that Tour last year, secured his Tour Card for 2023 with his top-15 finish in the Open de France four weeks ago. He is very strong from tee-to-green, ranking inside the top-10 for greens in regulation and inside the top-25 for strokes played: approach the green. That should mean he will have plenty of birdie chances this week and warrants shorter odds. Jason Scrivener
Scrivener is another with very good strokes gained: approach the green stats, ranking inside the top-15 on Tour in that category. While he has had a disappointing season, he is extremely unlikely to finish outside the top-117 in the Race to Dubai standings and has far better quality than these odds suggest, particularly this type of field. Yannik Paul
Paul comes to this event in very good form and with a game profile that should suit this course. In the last four weeks he has finished in the top-10 twice, a feat that only the market leader, Rasmus Hojgaard can match. On the DP World Tour, he ranks inside the top-20 for strokes gained: approach the green, greens in regulation, scrambling, scoring average and strokes gained: tee-to-green. Much shorter odds, but a very strong profile relative to this field. Tips 1-2; +31.00pts 1pt e.w. Julien Brun 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 37th 1pt e.w. Jason Scrivener 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 1pt e.w. Yannik Paul 28/1 (10Bet, SportNation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 1st
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