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There has been plenty of emotion over the last couple of weeks with players not winning the tournament, but securing their playing rights for next season. This event represents the last chance for many players outside the top-117 on the Race to Dubai. In two weeks’ time, the top-60 in those standings head to the Nedbank Challenge with a purse triple the size on offer this week, while those still outside the top-117 head to the Qualifying Tournament, which is being held for the first time since 2019. There is a lot at stake this week and that inevitably means lots of drama and sub-plots while the final round unfolds. As if there wasn’t enough drama over the final holes of a DP World Tour event, as last Sunday showed! With the exception of the Covid-disrupted schedule in 2020, the Portugal Masters has always been a late season event since its inception in 2007 and in most years, it has been the last event to be played in Europe. Prior to Covid, this was the final event before the HSBC Champions and the European Tour Playoff Series. Those have gone, but it retains its status as the final ‘full-field’ event of the season. The venue is the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course which is another resort-style course that will not overly challenge players’ games. This was the site of the European Tour’s first 59 when Oliver Fisher reached that mark though he only finished 7th. Low scoring will be the norm this week. There were some modifications to the course before the 2019 event – a new strain of Bermuda grass for the rough, some re-positioning of bunkers and some strategically-placed trees on three holes to limit the degree to which players can cut the corner on dog-legs – but it is still largely the same course. The fairways are wide, the rough is not particularly penal and the greens are large. There have been no 59s since the course modifications, but there have been scores of 61 in the opening rounds in each of the last two years. With so many consecutive years at this venue, there are a number of angles that can be used this week, but two are retained from last week given this event's unique position on the Tour schedule. Angles to consider: 1. Approach stats are key indicators to low scoring This was a very common angle when resort courses were common during the 2020 season. If low-scoring is to be expected, this can easily be described as a putting contest, but it is the ability to hit approach shots close that creates those birdie opportunities. Until the DP World Tour matches the PGA Tour and publishes data on performance at various yardages, the composite strokes gained: approach the green stat will be the best predictor of capacity to shoot low scores. This is an angle retained from last week when Yannik Paul won and ranked 1st for strokes gained: tee-to-green and 64th for strokes gained: putting. Paul Waring should have won and he ranked 3rd and 60th for those two stats, while the favourite at the start of the final round, Ryan Fox, ranked 2nd and 70th for those two stats. It was a resort course, but scoring was created before the green. 2. Avoid players still to earn their 2023 Tour Card Nicolai Von Dellingshausen matched Angel Hidalgo’s feat the previous week in finishing high enough, but not win, to secure his Tour Card for 2023. That pressure of securing a Tour Card means ‘bubble players’ are unlikely to take to risks to win the event as future playing rights are the primary objective. Despite the field being dominated by ‘bubble players’, only one other player, Jazz Janewattananond, managed to jump inside the top-117 on the Race to Dubai. That pressure will be even more intense this week. 3. Putting ability is not a good indicator of success around the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course A somewhat anti-angle for this one and a course-specific reformulation of the first angle. Since the winner typically ranks very highly for putting in this event (6th-2nd-1st-5th-1st-1st-4th-1st-7th-1st for putts per GIR in the last ten years), it is commonly argued that this a putting contest. That is not necessarily so. However, it is true for all low-scoring events and that is the case here. But low-scoring can be a product of good putting, good approach plays or simply very true greens. Angles that are considered pre-event should corroborate the evidence post-event, both before and after those events and not solely focus on the stats during the tournament. Normally, that is sufficient, but there is a divergence in this event. Consider those last ten winners and their putts per GIR rankings outlined above. Prior to the tournament, they had the following ranking on the European Tour for putts per GIR: 103rd-3rd-70th-173rd-98th-10th-107th-65th-152nd-34th. George Coetzee (2020 winner) and Padraig Harrington (2016 winner) were clearly a very good putters, but the 2020 event was played much earlier in the (re-started) season. Last week confirmed that it is tee-to-green that is important on resort course (angle 1), while the course history in this angle confirms that putting rankings are not a useful predictor pre-tournament. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Jason Scrivener
Sticking with Scrivener for another week. He ranks highly in terms of the strokes gained metrics that will matter this week, ranking inside the top-20 for approach-the-green, and he also boasts an impressive and consistent record around this course. He has finished 8th-12th-29th-17th in his last four visits. John Catlin
Catlin returned to form with an 11th place finish in his last event, the Andalucia Masters. And with a game profile that matches the above angles perfectly, he looks a strong candidate to win for the fourth time since 2020: he ranks 13th in strokes gained: off the tee, 18th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 28th in strokes gained: approach the green. That game profile can explain why he has finished 22nd and 8th in the last two years here. Edoardo Molinari
Molinari is another who has shown improved form recently with a top-5 finish in the Open de Espana where he led the field in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation. A player with a similar, if not better, game profile than Catlin: he ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained: tee to green and approach the green, while ranking inside the top-20 for both strokes gained: off the tee and greens in regulation. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Jason Scrivener 80/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 18th 1pt e.w. John Catlin 60/1 (10Bet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Edoardo Molinari 90/1 (10Bet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 15th
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