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This will be the second week at Al Hamra Golf Club after the Qatar Masters was postponed due to Covid restrictions. There will then be a week’s break after the Indian Open was also postponed and re-scheduled for March 31st – April 3rd, the week before The Masters. The field is similar to last week, though there is more variation than in previous two-week events held at the same venue. Adri Arnaus, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Laurie Canter, Justin Harding and Shaun Norris are all inside the World top-110 and compete this week after playing in the Saudi International last week. They will compete on a course designed by Peter Harradine, architect for Doha Golf Club and the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, used on the European Tour for the Qatar Masters and Abu Dhabi Championships, respectively. Five million cubic metres of sand were used in the design of the course, but this is still a very flat and open layout so there is little barrier to the winds off the Arabian Gulf. These are again forecast to be very calm this week, at least until Sunday. Meandering around three sides of a marina, there is plenty of water on and around this course, which may have been challenging for players of this calibre in strong winds. With winning scores of 15-, 17- and 20-under par in three Challenge Tour events, and 24-under-par last week, this does not look to be a particularly challenging course without wind. Given that the top two last week, Nicolai Hojgaard and Jordan Smith, ranked 1st and 2nd in strokes gained: off the tee last week, there has justifiably been a lot of focus on big hitters in previews this week. They certainly did overpower the course, Hojgaard in particular, but such an obvious feature from last week has resulted in much smaller odds on such players this week. Having been 33/1 to win last week, Hojgaard is no more than 14/1 this week. The value clearly lies elsewhere. As will be outlined below, there is little to suggest that last week’s angles shouldn’t also work this week. Angles to consider: 1. In-form players have won here previously This angle is retained from last week and so a full explanation can be found here. It merely remains to be shown that this was a good angle to follow to form a shortlist, even if the choosing of last week’s selections from that shortlist wasn’t particularly profitable. While 20-year-old Hojgaard is a very erratic player, runner-up Smith had finished 9th and 12th in the previous two weeks, and those were against very much stronger fields. Form remains a valid angle. 2. Greens in regulation is the key stat this week This angle is also retained from last week (see above link for a full explanation). For all that Hojgaard and Smith topped the strokes gained: off the tee stats, it should also be noted that Hojgaard ranks 2nd for strokes gained: approach the green, while the top-ranked player in that category, Haotong Li, finished 3rd. And the same indictors can be found in the pre-event stats as well: Hojgaard ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation on the European Tour last year, so these approach play stats help to identify the winner pre-tournament as well as explain the winner post-tournament. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Julien Brun
The Frenchman was competing on the Pro Golf Tour only two years ago, but progressed to the Challenge Tour and made quite an impact. He won twice, recorded five top-5 finishes and finished the season in 4th place in the Road to Mallorca standings. And he looks untroubled at this level as well, finishing in the top-25 in all three starts this season, including 13th last week. He ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation last week, just as he did in the Abu Dhabi Championship, so clearly meets both angles. Richard Bland
Missed the cut last week, but that is not a concern given that Daniel Van Tonder won the Kenya Savannah Classic after missing the cut the previous week in the Kenya Open last year; both events played on the same course. Jazz Janewattanond finished second having also missed the cut the previous week. There were four cases of consecutive events on the same course last year on the European Tour and there isn’t a clear pattern to emerge across such a small sample, other winners in week 1 feature strongly in week 2 before fading over the weekend. Back to Bland and there shouldn’t be any concerns about his form given that he lost out to Viktor Hovland in the playoff for the Dubai Desert Classic. Ranking inside the top-15 for strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation last year, he again meets the angles and is retained as a selection this week at much better odds as well. Marcus Armitage
Armitage is also retained from last week as, explained last week, he has a game built upon solid tee-to-green play: he ranked inside the top-20 for strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation last year. He also won the European Open and secured five top-10 finishes to highlight his consistency. A 12th place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic and an 8th place position at the cut last week is enough evidence that he has the form required to meet both betting angles this week. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Julien Brun 40/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1pt e.w. Richard Bland 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 54th 1pt e.w. Marcus Armitage 45/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 9th
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