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The first two weeks were everything that the new Tour sponsors could have hoped for, but now that the circus has moved onto Saudi Arabia, the Tour now focuses on those mainstream events that most of the Tour’s pros will rely upon to make a decent career. There are none of the World’s top-50 in this event and the purse is 75% smaller, but that doesn’t necessarily mean less entertainment, though the last two weeks will be hard to beat. This is an inaugural event, played on a course never previously used on the European/DP World Tour. Al Hamra Golf Club did host three events on the Challenge Tour between 2016 and 2018, including the 2018 Challenge Tour Grand Final. But the Challenge Tour doesn’t collate playing stats for its events and there is a transient nature to second-tier Tours. This was never going to be easy! The course was designed by Peter Harradine, architect for Doha Golf Club and the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, used on the European Tour for the Qatar Masters and Abu Dhabi Championships, respectively. Five million cubic metres of sand were used in the design of the course, but this is still a very flat and open layout so there is little barrier to the winds off the Arabian Gulf. These are forecast to be very calm this week, at least until Sunday. Meandering around three sides of a marina, there is plenty of water on and around this course, which may have been challenging for players of this calibre in strong winds. With winning scores of 15-, 17- and 20-under par in those Challenge Tour events, this does not look to be a particularly challenging course without wind. Given the limited history at this course, only the following two angles are offered to identify who should be profitable to back this week. Angles to consider: 1. In-form players have won here previously There is an obvious caveat in that the three Challenge Tour events have been held at the end of the season, whereas this is an early-year event, but this is a clear trend from those events. Each of the three winners had secured a top-10 finish in their last three starts and each of them had secured each least four top-20 finishes in their last six starts. And this extends beyond the winners. In 2018, second-placed Victor Perez had finished in the top-15 in his last seven starts, including one win. Third-placed Clement Sordet has finished in the top-20 in his last three starts in 2017, while in 2016, second-placed Jose-Filipe Lima had finished in the top-25 in each of the last four weeks while third-placed Johan Edfors had won three weeks previously. 2. Greens in regulation is the key stat this week It is difficult to refer to any stats when none are collated by the Tour and it is not particularly instructive to say that the winner makes lots of birdies or holes lots of putts. Some information can be gleaned from players who had recently played on the European Tour. In 2018, Perez was ranking highly for greens in regulation when competing on the European Tour, as he would continue to do so thereafter. The 2017 winner, Jens Dantorp, had ranked inside the top-15 for greens in regulation in his previous three European Tour starts, while 2016’s Edfors had ranked 1st in his previous Tour event for greens in regulation and this had long been the key strength of his game. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Richard Bland
This is why you don’t need the marquee players to make the DP World Tour enthralling. It has been a remarkable transformation for Bland who will turn 49 on Thursday. He became the oldest first-time winner on the Tour last year and erased any doubts about his recovery from knee surgery when losing out to Viktor Hovland in the playoff on Sunday. He still rose to 53rd in the World Rankings and is so close to making his Masters debut. Ranking inside the top-15 for strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation last year, he looks a far better prospect than most at the top of the market. Marcus Armitage
Armitage also has a game built upon solid tee-to-green play: he ranked inside the top-20 for strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation last year. He also won the European Open and secured five top-10 finishes to highlight his consistency. A 12th place finish last week is enough evidence that he has the form required to meet both betting angles this week. Padraig Harrington
Harrington is the second ‘veteran’ selection. He even made his Champions Tour debut last October. His last European Tour victory may be the 2016 Portugal Masters, but he has shown that he has remained competitive at this level. He has finished inside the top-20 in each of his last four European Tour starts, three of which have been in the UAE and included a top-10 finish last week. He is now 139th in the World Rankings, his highest ranking since 2017, so he is showing no signs of ageing and could certainly feature again this week. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Richard Bland 33/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Marcus Armitage 45/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 35th 1pt e.w. Padraig Harrington 60/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 27th
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