|
This was supposed to be the week that the golfing headlines stayed away from LIV Golf and focused on the strategic partnership between the PGA and DP World Tours. Ian Poulter’s victory at a Sports Resolutions (UK) hearing yesterday scuppered that. It clears the way for Poulter, Justin Harding and Adrian Otaegui to compete this week. What odds they will be put together in either the first or the final grouping on Thursday? In other news, this is a historic week. This is the first co-sanctioned event between the two Tours and results in 14 of the top-15 in the World Rankings competing this week. That is newsworthy in any week. To achieve that the week before a Major Championship and while most are playing in a pro-am on Monday-Tuesday in Ireland is very surprising. It is a statement of force, but it will be interesting to see how many give it 100% attention if they have an indifferent first round. Collin Morikawa dropped from 23rd to 71st over the weekend last year, but then won at Royal St George’s the following week. They will compete at The Renaissance Club, which is on a great piece of land between Muirfield and North Berwick, but the course is only 14 years old. And it was not until 2013 and a land swap with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers (based at Muirfield) that the Renaissance Club could boast that it had holes on the coastline. For the purist, this is a links-style golf course rather than a pure links. The course was originally designed with relatively wide fairways, but these were subsequently narrowed before the event first hosted the Scottish Open in 2019. When Bernd Wiesberger defeated Benjamin Hebert in a playoff that year with a score of 22-under-par, it was clear that the course needed to be toughened up if it was to remain the host of this event. The fairways were narrowed further, but the most visible change to the course was the reversal of holes 1-7 and 10-16, which allowed the holes alongside the First of Forth to played on the back nine. This meant that the opening holes played significantly easier with only the par-5s providing any respite over the closing 11 holes. The changes clearly had an effect as the winning score in 2020 was 11-under-par, but it is probable that most of the higher scoring resulted from the event being played in October rather than July. Padraig Harrington was brought in as a player consultant to advise how to toughen up the course, but the winning score last year was 18-under-par. The primary issue has been the weather over the last three years. Rain has fallen before the event each time to soften up the course and the typically strong from the west have not materialised. Links courses need to be playable in wind so there is limited scope for course modification, else the course can quickly become unplayable. Remember ‘Carnasty’ in 1999? But once again, the forecast is that winds will reach no more than 15mph and there is at least a 35% chance of rain on Wednesday. The winds are a little stronger than last year, but again this course is likely to be deprived of its key defence. Its secondary defence is its heavily contoured greens, but they should be no match for this week’s field. Another low-scoring event is forecast. The following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Look for previous experience in this event Links golf is unique, so the standard angle would be to look at experience in links events. That can be done easily, but this is a more focused approach on this event. Every winner since the event moved to a links course (2011) had previously competed in this event. Even last year's 200/1 winner, Min Woo Lee, and the 400/1 winner in 2018, Brandon Stone, had previously competed in this event. In terms of the three events held at The Renaissance Club, Lee defeated Thomas Detry and Matt Fitpatrick in a playoff and all had achieved at least a top-30 finish in the previous two Scottish Opens here. Poulter and Lucas Herbert finished a shot back and had both finished in the top-6 at The Renaissance Club the previous year. There was also a playoff in 2020 when Aaron Rai defeated Tommy Fleetwood and they had previously competed in two and five Scottish Opens, respectively, and both had already secured a top-10 in this event. The 2019 event here also resulted in a playoff, between Bernd Wiesberger and Benjamin Hebert, and they had both competed in this event five times previously. 2017’s winner, Rafa Cabrera Bello, had competed in eight previous Scottish Opens, while the six previous winners of this event back to 2011 had all achieved at least one top-10 finish in this event. Links experience is important, but so is links experience in this particular event. 2. This event will be determined tee-to-green In terms of standard stats, Hebert (finished 2nd), Roman Langasque (3rd) and Henrik Stenson (4th) all ranked inside the top-5 for greens in regulation on this course in 2019. Rai won in October 2020 and was also ranked inside the top-5 for greens in regulation. Last year, Poulter (4th), Herbert (4th) and Jon Rahm (7th) all ranked inside the top-3 for greens in regulation that week. But it is in terms of the strokes gained stats that this is even more evident. While none of the seven players in the three playoffs here ranked inside the top-8 for strokes gained: off the tee or strokes gained: putting, Wiesberger and Hebert ranked 3rd and 2nd, respectively, for both strokes gained: tee-to-green in 2019, Rai and Fleetwood ranked 2nd and 1st, respectively, for strokes gained: tee-to-green in 2020, and Lee, Detry and Fitzpatrick ranked 4th, 5th and 30th, respectively, for strokes gained: tee-to-green last year. Detry ranked 1st for strokes gained: approach the green. 3. PGA Tour regulars fare well in this event Last year’s winner, Min Woo Lee, and Detry were not PGA Tour regulars, but the top-10 on the leaderboard featured seven PGA Tour regulars: Fitzpatrick, Herbert, Ryan Palmer, Poulter, Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele. There were very few PGA Tour regulars competing in the 2020 event last year for obvious reasons, but Tommy Fleetwood was such a PGA Tour regular and lost out in the playoff. Ian Poulter and Erik Van Rooyen had played exclusively on the PGA Tour for months and both finished 6th. PGA Tour regulars, Henrik Stenson and Andrew Putnam, finished in the top-5 in 2019 while PGA Tour regulars Luke List finished 3rd and Rickie Fowler 6th. In 2017, Cabrera-Bello won after concentrating on the PGA Tour until the U.S. Open. That was also the case with Justin Rose in 2014 and the 2013 and 2015 editions were won by Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler, respectively. In the missing year, 2016, the event was won by Jeev Milkha Singh, but Danny Lee finished 3rd and four PGA Tour regulars finished in the top-10. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood lost out in a playoff in 2020 and returned to this event last year to finish 26th. That is the only time in his last five events in Scotland that he has finished outside the top-7, and that doesn’t include his maiden Tour win at the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles. His links form is also good with a runner-up finish in the Open Championship three years ago and with a top-5 finish in the PGA Championship and a top-10 finish in Germany last month, there are clear signs that he is returning to the form that he showed pre-pandemic. When he has driven well, his approach play is as good as anyone on Tour, and that will be the key to his success this week. Justin Rose
Rose hasn’t played in this event since finishing in the top-10 in 2018, which means that he will be making his debut on this course. But given that he won this event in 2014 around Royal Aberdeen and was a runner-up at the 2018 Open Championship at Carnoustie, his links pedigree is solid. He finished 4th in the Canadian Open last month after shooting 60 and has finished in the top-15 in three of his last five starts, which includes two Major Championships. As his odds suggest, he is off the radar this week. Billy Horschel
Horschel has been a regular competitor on the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour never had a problem giving his a conflicting event release. He used that to win last year’s BMW PGA Championship and finish 2nd on the DP World Tour rankings. He was set for a top-10 finish in the BMW International Open two weeks ago until a poor final round. The point is that he feels comfortable on this Tour and even though he links record isn’t great, the calm winds and soft conditions should help him, as last year when he shot four rounds of 70 or lower round this course. He is also a player in great form, having won the Memorial Tournament last month when he topped the rankings that week for greens in regulation and strokes gained: tee-to-green. Tips 1-2; +6.25pts 1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood 45/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 4th 1pt e.w. Justin Rose 80/1 (LiveScoreBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 69th 1pt e.w. Billy Horschel 45/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
|
