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The first year of the rebranded DP World Tour draws to a close this week and what an eventful year it has been. A year ago, there was controversy as Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed received invitations for this event even though they hadn’t played the minimum number of Tour events. They were just two of the Tour’s players who joined the breakaway LIV Golf series this year. And that is just one issue that has affected the Tour this year. The other is the granting of full PGA Tour Cards to the top-10 DP World Tour players who are not already exempt. By the time the Tour reaches Europe again, the LIV Golf issue will have been resolved in terms of law courts and world rankings points. Who knows what types of fields will be playing in these events by that stage. For those that are here, they have qualified by being the top-50 ranked players in the Race to Dubai. A few absences mean that Haotong Li, ranked 53rd, makes the field, but this is clearly a very strong field with so few absences. At stake is not only this week’s title, but also the mantle of Europe’s (sic) #1. At the top of the list are Rory McIlroy and Ryan Fox. McIlroy has played in five DP World Tour events, plus four Majors; Fox has played in twenty, plus three Majors. McIlroy is certainly the best player in the world at the moment, but Fox warrants this title on the basis of his support for the Tour. They will compete on the Earth course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates. A Greg Norman-designed typical desert course. It is long – measuring 7,675 yards – featuring generous fairways, plenty of water (for the middle of the desert) and plenty of sand (we are in the middle of the desert). Water features on each of the last three holes to add to the drama of the finish here with an island green for the par-3 17th hole and water in place for both those laying up and those going for the green on the par-5 18th hole, and there are 99 bunkers. The rough has been toughened up over the years and length off the tee has become less of an advantage, but the formula is clear. Stay out of trouble off the tee so that the pin can be attacked for approach shots and putt well on the fast greens. That looks like the formula for any course, but there is nothing particularly different that is required here. The rough is not too punitive, the fairways are not too narrow and the greens are not small. It is a good course for TV with its closing holes and it is a good course to showcase the best players’ talents. Here are a few angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Recent form is important This may seem obvious given that this event features the top-50 players on the DP World Tour, but that is a measure over the whole season whereas closing the season in strong form is not necessarily the same. Ten of the thirteen winners here recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous two starts. The two exceptions were Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016) who had recorded top-20 finishes in both of his previous two starts (a WGC event and a Rolex Series event), Jon Rahm (2017) who still had four top-10 finishes in the PGA Tour Playoffs within his last seven starts and the 2020 winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick again, who had been competing on the PGA Tour in preparation for the Masters and had secured a top-10 finish in his last European Tour start. Clearly, all the ‘exceptions’ had strong incoming form anyway.. 2. Tee-to-green stats matter here Given the lack of challenges off the tee, despite the length of the course, and the low winning scores, it is clear that approach shots are central to any low score here. Good approach play presents the players with the birdie chances that they need to win. When Collin Morikawa won last year, he was widely regarded as the best iron player in the world. Before him, the strokes gained stats for tee-to-green pointed to the top of the leaderboard: in 2020, the top-6 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-8 for that category and in 2019, the top-4 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-5 for that category. That shows that it is before the green rather than on the green that is more important here. In terms of greens in regulation stats, each of the last four winners here have ranked inside the top-7 for greens in regulation. 2. Around the green also matters Low scores are compiled not only by scoring lots of birdies, but by also avoiding dropped shots. Morikawa may have been famous for his iron play, but he led the field in scrambling and was ranked inside the top-3 for strokes gained: around the green last year. In the previous two years, the top-ranked player for strokes gained: around the green had finished in the top-3 on the leaderboard, while in each of the four years beforehand (before strokes gained stats were used on the European Tour), the top-ranked player for scrambling had finished in the top-4 on the leaderboard. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Robert Macintyre
Macintyre has been in great form recently, winning the Italian Open in September and then finishing in the top-20 in his next five starts before last week’s event in South Africa. That form has been based on a very strong short game, particularly the putter. That was the basis of his strong performance here last year when he finished 4th, which confirmed his ability to play desert golf. In the United Arab Emirates alone, he has finished in the top-25 in ten of his last twelve starts. Alex Noren
Noren is another in very good form, finishing 4th in the Houston Open at the weekend. The indicators had been good heading in to the week as he top-ranked for greens in regulation the previous week in Mexico. He finished 2nd in his last DP World Tour outing, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last month and he finished inside the top-20 in his last appearance on this course (2018). In terms of relevant stats, he ranked inside the top-20 for both scrambling and strokes gained: putting in the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. Adrian Otaegui
A controversial winner of the Andalucia Masters as he was omitted from all the official Tour coverage until the last round despite holding a six-shot lead and setting a new 54-hole scoring record around Valderrama. He had played in a number of LIV Golf events earlier in the summer. He would go on to win his fourth DP World Tour title that week. In terms of game profile, he looks a strong contender to repeat this week: he ranks inside the top-15 for strokes gained: tee-to-green, inside the top-10 for strokes gained: around the green and ranks 1st for scrambling on the DP World Tour. He has finished 4th and 14th in his last two visits to the Earth course at Jumeirah. Tips 1-2; +3.25pts 1pt e.w. Robert Macintyre 40/1 (Unibet, Sporting Index 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 34th 1pt e.w. Alex Noren 33/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 2nd 1pt e.w. Adrian Otaegui 66/1 (Unibet, Spreadex, Sporting Index 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 16th
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