Outright Betting Tips - DP World Tour

Jordan Smith 1 point each-way @ 40/1 (1/5 7 places Power/Hills, Betfair) 13th

After a magnificent season on the DPWT, the final event before the play-offs ended in a tie between Tom Kim and Benny An. Not a major surprise given their class, but very unique in that both avoided separation after 72 holes, were ante-post joint-favourites, and playing in their home country. Golf.

Around 22 months ago I wrote a column that more-or-less started with the line, "we get the chance to see the first full-field event of the 2023 DP World schedule."

Back then, it was a reference to the Abu Dhabi Championship, an event that may have transferred courses in 2022 but has since 2006, taken part in January, among the early-season desert swing. A re-jig of the European schedule (a successful one in my view) now means the event takes pride of place as the first of the two big-money play-off events at the end of the year.

Interestingly, the prize fund remains the same as it was last year but there are huge implications for the top 70 players that have qualified. Events in South Korea meant the likes of Casey Jarvis and compatriot Brandon Stone moved into the 70 alongside in-form Francesco Laporta, Nicolai Hojgaard and Gavin Green. However, thanks to a number of higher-ranked players choosing not to play, those listed at 71 to 76 also sneak in. The likes of Matt Baldwin, Alfredo Gracia-Heredia, Joost Luiten and Sean Crocker all just get in and still retain some hope of getting inside the cut for Dubai.

Whilst those names, along with much of the lower half of the 70 probably need a miracle to get into the top-10 of the rankings at the end of the Dubai World Tour Championship, there are still Ryder Cup points to play for, as well as the incentive of finishing as one of the top 10 players yet to have a PGA Tour card. If they needed it, over the past 12 months we've seen PGA Tour victories for Matthieu Pavon, Robert MacIntyre and Aaron Rai, all players that may not have been seen as obvious winners of a regular PGA Tour event but have elevated their game to another level.

As with the Genesis and a final chance to cement a place for one of 70 invites, the Abu Dhabi Championship allows everyone to grab a slot inside the top-50 and play in a stellar no-cut event alongside the best Europe has to offer. This time, the bubble may really matter. I wouldn't want to be on the players at 49th or 51st heading into Sunday.

As for the event itself, the very name of the course gives it away. Wide, exposed fairways, pot bunkers, large greens and the threat of wind allow the most obvious of connections to the likes of St. Andrews and pals, whilst designer Kyle Phillips is a name most links fans can admire. Courses such as Bernadus and Hilversumche in the Netherlands, Kingsbarns in Scotland, Vendura in Sicily and The Grove in London scream the same attributes, whilst the same names repeat themselves.

Alfred Dunhill Links legend Tyrrell Hatton, a three-time winner of that unique pro-am, won at Abu Dhabi Golf Club in 2021 and has a 6th and 7th place finish here; Tommy Fleetwood, a two-time winner at ADGC has too many links-biased results to name; defending champ Victor Perez is a previous winner at the Links Championship and won the 2022 Dutch Open at Bernardus, whilst tied-5th with Hatton was Alex Noren, winner of the 2016 British Masters on the only occasion it was held at The Grove.

It's never a perfect science but with winners at ADGC reading Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry, Paul Casey and Jamie Donaldson, combine that with the move to coastal Yas Links and...you get the picture.

While established and respected, the event will never have meant so much to the assembled field. All will have their various pressures but the elite will know they are certain of a place at the Earth Course next week.

Apart from Gary Stal (125/1) in 2015, there have been few shock names engraved on the unique trophy so perhaps expect the obvious. That said, he came off a 5th at the South African Open and recorded 7-under for his final round, his putter firing well enough to pip hot favourite Rory McIlroy by a shot, and desert specialist Martin Kaymer (3-over) by two.

Now changing the event to November and with a stellar top of the market, anyone looking away from the elite are probably just chasing a couple of places at best.

Think Links, get it on the green and take care with the longer putts. Pieters found enough greens that meant he could be less than average with the putter, but Perez was excellent all-round, hitting 80% of greens and knocking a large majority in.

Modern stats give a differing view too. Both were highly ranked off the tee (2nd and 3rd) and ranked in the top-11 for tee-to-green despite only being rated 23rd and 48th for approach. A combination of getting it there, no matter how, trusting the short-stick to work, and a knowledge of the location would seem to be as perfect a combination as we can get.

The weather looks typically 'desert' with plenty of sun and the odd decent gust. The ball will roll plenty on the fairways and there may be a leaning to the longer drivers.

The absence of Jon Rahm meant Rory McIlroy was certain to go off a short-priced favourite although I'm surprised he can be backed at a bet-to-nothing price of around 9/2 or 5/1. Still, he's probably best suited to next week's finale and has been beaten at least three times this year, when looking almost certain to go on and win, including at his home Open and at Wentworth, when having his pocket picked by one this week's most notable absentees, Billy Horschel.

Tyrrell Hatton was going to be much more favoured given his love of the country and also his clear bias to links golf. 6/1 is giving nothing away though, and with hard-to-win-with Tommy Fleetwood making up a price of shorter than 6/4 for the trio, there has to be value elsewhere, in an event that mid-range shots do particularly well in (granted the new calendar may have a big effect).

I'm starting the card with Robert MacIntyre, a player I've longed believed has the game to win the Claret Jug, and crucially has looked in fine spirits lately away from the course, carrying the match ball onto the field in a recent rugby international.

That has little to do with golf, other than let us know he is relaxed, something very much key to a golfer that often crops up mentioning he is a far better, or more mentally tuned, player than he was back in 2021-ish.

Very much at home on the links, relevant form goes back long enough, with 2018 Challenge Tour form including a play-off loss to Dunhill and Abu winner Victor Perez before a season-ending top six finish at the finale at Al Hamra - Perez runner-up behind Adri Arnaus - a course that has seen Ras Al Khaimah winners and contenders, the Hojgaards, Thorbjorn Olesen and Jordan Smith, all put up respectable efforts around here in limited tries.

The list goes on with a debut effort at The Open finishing in 6th at Royal Portrush and a should-have-been-better 8th at St. George's, all through to his wins at the Italian Open and at this year's Scottish Open. The former allows comparison with Nicolai Hojgaard once again, whilst Fleetwood, Matt Fitpatrick and Adrian Meronk do nothing but boost the form.

A year before his win at the Renaissance Club, the 28-year-old saw his final round of 64 just a shot shy of McIlroy's total and he went on to win his Ryder Cup singles match against US Open champion, Wyndham Clark, before qualifying for one of the 10 PGA Tour cards at the end of the year.

A slow start to 2024 was left behind with top-10s at free-hitting events, the Mexico Open and Myrtle Beach, 8th at the US PGA and, in June, his first PGA Tour victory. The win at the Canadian Open came courtesy of a two-shot gap to Perez and a further stroke to Scottish Open and Open Championship top-three Tom Kim, and McIlroy.

Now up to 16th in the OWGR, the Scot has kept his place via the victory from an elite field at his home Open, 7th and 16th at two of the three FedEx play-off events, 5th in Ireland and 12th at the BMW PGA.

More was expected at his last outing at the Dunhill Links but, fascinatingly, that finish means his record at the event reads 20th, 25th twice and 26th from five tries.

Boib sat 17th after the first round on his debut at this course in 2022 before an awful follow-up of 80, and was very consistent last season, leading the stats for off-the-tee and ranking in third place for tee-to-green. The flat stick let him down badly previously but he's been in much better shape for most of this season and he knows how to beat the elite in 2024.

Away from the elite, Jordan Smith is probably the best tee-to-green player on the tour, and in an event that will reward pin-seekers he has to go into the plan after coming right back to form since September.

Currently ranking 2nd for greens-in-reg on the tour, he sits in fourth place on our overall figures for the last three months, being 16th for ball-striking and 3rd in greens. Those figures return him to the status he seems to have carried permanently since arriving at the level after dominating the 2016 Challenge Tour.

A maiden victory at the long Green Eagle track sees him link with Paul Casey, MacIntyre, Tom McKibbin and Bernd Wiesbereger, whilst his second victory, at Vilamoura reads just as well, if not better, with the list of winners and runners-up a whos-who of links golf - Alvaro Quiros, Paul Lawrie, Tom Lewis, Shane Lowry, Ross Fisher, Pod Harrington, Lucas Bjerregaard, Tom Lewis, Marc Warren and Eddie Pepperrell.

So to today and a run of form since the turn of Autumn that reads 12th at The Belfry and at Crans, 7th at Royal County Down, 18th at Wentworth, 35th at the Dunhill Links 915th after three rounds), 13th in France and 4th last time out in Sotogrande.

The 31-year-old hasn't fired quite yet in this event, never bettering 19th for tee-to-green, but on the flip-side he has ranked inside the top-15 for the shorter game. Not only is that a bit of a surprise, but it's happened in a full field of 155-odd players.

Take those course attributes along with a return to his best and he's very capable of shaking this field up for much of the journey, confirming his current status as a 2025 PGA Tour card holder.

Veteran Justin Rose is tempting in some fashion, but surely he'd rather this a test of endurance and short game rather than a shoot-out, so the last place goes to a man who may not be quite the class, but is in flying form and is value to nick one of the four or five places that will be left open after the names have snaffled their place.

Although he has won just three events, all on the Challenge Tour, Francesco Laporta they do have some significance to this week's task.

The 34-year-old won his first event at the Hainan Open in China, closely followed by a victory at the Grand Final on a course won by a mix of long-drivers (Marco Penge) and tee-to-green merchants (Nathan Kimsey) before winning the Big Green German Challenge some four years later. The latter event, on a 7400-yard par-72 has already been referenced above, having been won by Del Rey, Hidalgo and last year by flying Dane, Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson, a player I have down as relishing this type of test next year.

In between all that, some of the Italian's best results are found in Dubai, Italy (fourth place behind Nicolai, Tommy Fleetwood and Adrian Meronk) and a myriad of top-10s that include Himmerland, Sicily, Wentworth and at the Irish Open.

Back on the DPWT, Laporta has had a progressive year and his recent efforts see him currently sitting in 60th place, not too far off a place in next week's big money event if he can put in a stellar week, and recent efforts suggest it may be close.

The final position of 43rd at the Dunhill Links disguises his top-20 position at halfway, whilst a week later he shot 64/66/67 to come from 85th to 6th in France. Att the Andelucia Masters, the selection flirted with the top-20 throughout the event, showing form with his driving accuracy but being let down by his irons, the first time he has shown negative figures in eight starts, and he was back to form in Korea last time, ranking in the top-25 for all his stats, the highlights being 13th for tee-to-green and 9th around-the-green and rewarding our each-way wager..

Nevertheless, his overall greens-in-regulation play sees him rank 6th in our tracker, courtesy of finishing 6th on that table at the huge Albatross track, 1st at Crans, 5th at the Links and 8th at Le Golf National. Given two of his three Challenge Tour wins have come in 6-under and 7-under, I'm happy enough to think he's adaptable whatever the conditions.

On his only outing here, in 2022, the 34-year-old sat inside the top-20 after an opening 69 before following up with 77 but he was in nothing like the form he is showing now, and with top-10s in Dubai, Italy, Portugal, Sicily and Denmark on his CV, he can continue this great run and nab a place on the front page.

Preview & Tips by Halfway House