After a long history, 12 months ago we said farewell to Valderrama as host to the Andelucia Masters, replaced by the nearby Real Club de Golf Sotogrande. While both clubs sit close to the Southernmost area of Spain, they seem to have very different properties.
For many years, we marvelled at the difficulty of the former venue and the way it made mortals out of some of the biggest stars. Of course, the classic duel of 2020 highlights the trial, a full 72-hole of arduous work being settled after a final hole bogey by the 14/1 ante-post favorite Martin Kaymer, losing out to all-the-way winner and 100/1 shot John Catlin in a ridiculous 2-over par.
It wasn't quite as tricky when Matt Fitzpatrick sauntered home a year later, and less so when Adrian Otaegui produced a masterclass to win by six shots in 19-under but, even so, we probably didn't foresee the Real Club giving up four eagles to last year's champ Adrian Meronk, scrambling home by a single shot from Matti Schmid and by two from Richard Mansell, all three recording places inside the top-17 for driving distance.
Indeed, rather than resembling the Valders, Crans and Belfrys of the world, there seemed a more linksy side to the top of the board, highlighted by the runner-up's top-10 at the 2021 Alfred Dunhill Links, three shots behind tied-fourth Richard Bland, the veteran finishing finishing in third place here 12 months ago.
Bland, of course, famously won at tree-lined The Belfry and was tied runner-up (with Meronk) at Leopard Creek, a tournament that saw Schmid finish in fourth place in 2023 behind Louis Oosthuizen, doyen of the links.
With only one year behind us, it's probably not best to get carried away with firm requirements, but it seems as if controlled aggression off the tee is key to setting up those important eagle looks at the gettable par-5s, whilst driving close to the green at the trio of short par-4s helps, after which a short flip in from less than 80-yards sets up simple birdie chances. Whilst 2022 hero Otaegui sat close enough after three rounds, he and fellow short-hitter and overnight joint-leader Jeff Winther struggled come Sunday due to the lack of length.
As always with a coastal course, the weather and wind direction will be the difference. Meronk said after his win that, "it was a tough tournament, tough weather," but there is enough forgiveness in the course to make plenty of red numbers.
Also in the back of players' minds will be this penultimate outing before the cut to 70 players, all those above the line being qualified for the big play-off events in November. Personally, I think we make too big a thing about these things on a pre-event basis but it's worth taking a look in-running, especially on Sunday, when players on the bubble will either thrive or crack.
Points to note
Driving was the conduit for high tee-to-green stats last year and, with a good half-a-dozen holes offering the bomber an advantage, those that can take those particular 24 chances over the four days will almost certainly challenge come payday.
Home players often thrive in Spain. As the Volvo Masters, we often saw Sergio Garcia compete through the Sunday back-9. Even more convincing results occurred as the tournament name changed, with Garcia winning three of the first four Andelucia Masters held at Valderrama, beating Miguel Angel Jimenez for his inaugural success. Travel on to witness Christian Bezhuidenhout's six-shot win from five players tied in second place, four of those from Spain, whilst we've already mentioned Otaegui in 2022.
The long-standing and nomadic Spanish Open sees even more home bias, with home players winning five of the last six events, three of those seeing the Spanish flag hoisted for the runner-up position. Most recently, Angel Hidalgo beat Jon Rahm for the prize, with yet another Spaniard, David Puig, dominating the final round until the home stretch.
Selections
Jon Rahm rightly enters this week as a hot favorite. In terms of class, he is on a different level to this week's opposition, ranking in third place behind Scottie and Xander on Datagolf's figures, and fourth on the numbers supplied on this site. That gives him a massive advantage over the next in the betting, Rasmus Hojgaard and Thorbjorn Olesen, and understandably he is around 11/4 to prove that in a few days time.
Four tries at Valderrama have seen him record a joint-second behind Bezhuidenhout and a 10th place, while he has three wins from six starts at his home Open.
He'll be terrifically difficult to beat as he completes his fourth outing on the tour, making him qualified for the 2025 Ryder Cup team. This should also suit him down to the ground, his elite tee-to-green game certain to suit the attacking challenges of Real Club.
Still, we were on at a slightly bigger price in Spain when a slow start on Sunday allowed compatriots Hidalgo and Puig to keep with him, the former ultimately proving hardy enough to take him down in a tight play-off. The two-time major winner was probably only an eight-foot putt away from winning his fourth Spanish Open and, whilst it's with a grimace, I'll leave him out, fearing we now have one place payout opportunity.
Rasmus Hojgaard continues to play excellent golf and is just preferred to Olesen and whilst I wanted to be with Puig this week, that's an awfully short price about a player that, on the numbers, is struggling with his irons.
Instead, at a few points bigger, I'm in for the third successive week on Niklas Norgaard, the Dane showing no real sign of letting up after his maiden win six weeks ago.
Since leading the tee-to-green rankings at the Scottish Open, the three-time Nordic Golf League winner has gone 16th at the Irish Open, 26th at Wentworth and 14th at the Alfred Dunhill Links, the middle event witnessing a superb final round of 64.
Last week's top-20 at the unsuitable Le Golf National was despite some dubious approach stats, but again led for driving distance and was in the top echelons with the short stick. Proven on links tracks, with a record of 12/37/7 at the Dunhill Links, he also brings in form from the Scottish Open, Himmerland, Albatross and Green Eagle.
A more controlled player than once was, Norgaard has to go close.
Fellow Dane Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson is an improving youngster that we were with alongside Norgaard at the Links. He finished nicely to land a place at 100/1 but, despite some eye-catching figures, I can't quite take around 35/1.
We'll go further down for the remaining selections, the first being Grant Forrest, an exceptional amateur that won the Scottish Amateur and finished runner-up at the Amateur Championship, an exact feat carried out by Robert MacIntyre a short while later.
Progressive since arriving at this level in 2019, the 31-year-old had a chance to win the 2021 Irish Open at Mount Juliet before showing inexperience when it mattered, bettering that fourth by a place when in third position at the K-Club last season.
That improved effort probably reads better than his victory at Fairmont in 2021 and as well as his fourth behind (2021 Irish Open champion) Lucas Herbert, a fine purveyor of links golf, at the ISPS in Japan last season.
2024 hasn't gone his way but we saw with Dan Bradbury last week that motivation can do wonderful things. Forrest currently lies in 50th place on the Rolex rankings, comfortably inside the cut-line for Abu Dhabi, but right on the mark for a place at the season-closer in Dubai.
Recent form has seen definite improvement, a closing 66 seeing the Scot finish in fifth place at Royal County Down having led the greens-in-reg numbers (6th tee-to-green) , whilst 30th was his worst in-running position at Wentworth.
A final round 64 at the Spanish Open saw Forrest finish tied with the likes of Puig and Tommy Fleetwood before his 35th place at the Dunhill Links looks average despite four rounds in the 60s and his long game in rude health.
The selection missed the cut on the number here last year, but with two medal finishes at Club de Campo, I'm expecting a much better run from a player that might have found his mojo.
Rather like Niklas Norgaard, Daniel Hillier won his maiden at the British Masters at The Belfry. With Thorbjorn Olesen (9th here last year) and Richard Bland (terrific record on links) also winning on the Warwickshire course, that form may stand up, particularly as last year's Sotogrande winner, Meronk, has a 3rd and 15th there from three outings.
Prior to that, 8th and 3rd at the Di-Data as well as good finishes at County Down and at the BMW International give clues to the strength of his driving and he comes here listed as 11th on this site for driving distance over the last three months.
Top-20 this season at both the Open Championship and PGA Championship demonstrates his ability in higher grade, and while he closed Wentworth with a 67/68, he opened up the Dunhill Links with a 63/69 to lie in fifth place at halfway. Sadly, a treble-bogey on the 17th, the 71st hole of the tournament, cost him a much higher finish, and he comes here with good memories of the course, lying 18th, 4th, 30th and 19th through the four rounds here 12 months ago.
Both Sam Bairstow and Jesper Svensson caught the eye last week in France, but it's the 26-year-old Sheffield man that gets the vote after a much better effort than his rival when in the mix.
Bairstow, with just two bogeys in his final three rounds last week, is plumped for after finishing ranked in sixth place for driving distance and 13th for greens-in-reg, both showing a degree of consistency throughout the four days, following on from similar figures at the Spanish Open.
The improving Englishman was, of course, an excellent amateur, making the final of the 2022 Amateur Championship before turning professional a few weeks later having ranked as high as 7th in the world amateur lists.
It was only last year that Bairstow started on a full year, finishing 5th at the Irish Challenge before reversing form with Brandon Robinson-Thompson and Jordan Gumberg in Scotland. That may not sound great form at first glance, but the former was 6th at the Czech Masters and 18th at the recent Spanish Open, whilst the American won the SDC at St. Francis Links in March.
Form has continued on a steady incline in 2024, his rookie year on tour, starting with 23rd at Ras and Bahrain and 13th at the Qatar Masters before an excellent run in March this year.
Starting with a 15th at Glendower, the run continued for another five tournaments, landing a 3rd at Singapore, 13th in India, 36th in Japan (led at halfway) , 23rd in China and top-10 at the Soudal. After a trio of missed cuts, the 26-year-old was back with a sixth place at the ISCO (formally Barbasol, a haven for wind lovers) and a 12th place at the driver-friendly Albatross.
Autumn has been unspectacular but that 6th for driving distance and greens-in-reg in Spain catches the eye and numbers for France are better than would be expected for such an attacking player.
3rd off-the-tee, 23rd for approach, 18th for tee-to-green and 3rd for putting all led to an eight-birdie, one eagle, one bogey weekend at Le Golf National, a course that shouldn't have suited as well as this week's might.
He may have finished 45th at the recent Spanish Open but that disguises the fact he was in 2nd, 3rd and 14th place after each of the first three days and he'll face easier conditions this week.
A lefty with more than a passing resemblance to Bobby Mac in style, expect further progress over the next 12 months.
