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1-4; -0.60pts Aaron Rai - 1 point each-way 22/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 8 places) 4th Guido Migliozzi - 0.50 points each-way 90/1 (Unibet 1/5 7 places) mc Ewen Ferguson - 0.50 points each-way 100/1 (General 1/5 8 places) 18th Sami Valimaki - 0.50 points each-way 100/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 8 places) 57th Adrian Otaegui - 0.50 points each-way 150/1 (Skybet 1/5 8 places) 18th
Well, if we thought a gruelling weekend in Switzerland was the best we'd get....
After Matt Wallace had clung on to a play-off victory at the European Masters, it seemed as if Rory McIlroy was going to justify his short price at his home Open. And then it all went a bit wrong.
Two shots clear with four to play, stalling at both the 15th and 17th holes meant he had to eagle the par-5 72nd hole. Try as he might, it all ended in a one-shot defeat to Rasmus Hojgaard, whose chip-ins contributed to an outrageous back-nine of just 31 strokes. It wasn't pretty for Rory who summed it up by saying he was "getting used to it this year," a reference to his runner-up finishes in Dubai and at the US Open, 3rd at Texas and further top-5 finishes at the Scottish Open, Canadian Open and Olympics.
Whilst this week's weather forecast is great for that final visit to the coast, the more sadistic of us would have hoped for similar conditions for a third week in a row. Wentworth won't be seeing much of the wind and rain though, so expect a return to scores of 'level-fours' in order to challenge.
Harry Colt's original design of the West Course has been altered a couple of times in recent years, with Ernie Els' original 2016 revamp causing many of the top players of the time to launch into criticism, so much so that many of the new bunkers and greens were removed or renovated once again just three years later.
The stunning course at Virginia Water returned to the style of course that Colt intended - to make it a ball-strikers track rather than a war of attrition, and the figures back it up.
The four winners since 2020 have all ranked in the top-10 for tee-to-green, three of those leading the field at the end of the week. Whilst finding the fairway here is very helpful, the last 10 results suggest that isn't quite as vital as having the irons on point.
Strokes-gained-approach figures show rankings of 7/9/1/20 for second-shot prowess, whilst of the last 10 winners, three have ranked top for greens-in-regulation, with a further three players inside the top eight.
Apart from last year's champ Ryan Fox and debutant Benny An, eight of the last 10 winners have put up a top-10 finish here at least once in their careers, whilst there are some very clear course correlations.
Fox, alongside joint runner-up Tyrrell Hatton, BMW PGA champ in 2020, and 2019 winner Danny Willett have all won the Alfred Dunhill Links, with Victor Perez (runner-up to Hatton) also landing the links pro-am.
Through Perez and Aaron Rai (tied with Hatton last year) we see a link to Italy, whilst Hatton, Willett and Alex Noren (winner here in 2017) point clearly to Crans-sur-sierre.
Wentworth may not show it's teeth quite as violently as either of the venues hosting September tournaments thus far, but there is an easy-to-make link to those results.
Selections
I'm reluctantly leaving Rory alone this week, even though current, course and figures suggest he may be a bet-to-nothing, whilst Shane Lowry stayed on late after a slow start last week to frustrate all of us that expected a proper charge at the title.
Either of the Irish lads could take this with ease, whilst Billy Horschel is very tempting at his favourite UK course. However, the 2021 champion looks an absolute steal at odds-against for top American player, and that will be my main play for him, particularly as he wants to show his compatriots why he is so angry at being left off the President's Cup team.
For the outright market, I'll start with last year's runner-up Aaron Rai to continue a theme of course specialists turning up year-on-year.
Always a considerate tee-to-green player, his game is more reminiscent of the style used by Luke Donald and Matteo Manassero, who won the three events from 2011 to 2013. However, the 29-year-old has elevated his status to inside the top-25 of the world rankings and can prove that a tightish tree-lined track is very much to his advantage.
Rai's three wins on the Challenge Tour in 2017 include at tree-lined, fiddly Muthaiga and at Le Vaudreuil, a course conquered by Ryan Fox and by Beef Johnston, three times a top-10 finisher at Wentworth, whilst the Wolverhampton-born Florida resident also has a pair of wins on the main tour, both reading very well for this week's test.
A win over Matt Fitzpatrick in windy Hong Kong and then a play-off defeat of Tommy Fleetwood at the Scottish Open, in horrendous conditions, all pay testament to the selections methodical play and he's gone on from there to follow-up some consistent efforts on the PGA with his maiden victory.
Top-five finishes at the Byron Nelson, Rocket Mortgage and Scottish Open, backed up by a top-10 at the John Deere, gave some indication he could strike soon enough, and he put in a sparkling display of tee-to-green prowess at the Wyndham Championship, following up many of the classic ball-strikers on tour.
Rai has led the driving accuracy charts three times this year, been top-10 in eight events for greens-found, and led the approach stats at both the Wyndham and St. Jude, before going on to finish 21st at the Tour Championship nonsense finale.
Watching him last Saturday, I felt he was coming to peak for Wentworth, ranking 15th for irons and 10th for tee-to-green. However, he fell backwards on Sunday, potentially easing off knowing he could not contend, and he'll come here having made three of six cuts at this event, ranking in the top-10 off-the-tee in all, top-22 for approaches and top-12 in tee-to-green.
Bob MacIntyre looks obvious after another solid effort last week, but he hasn't quite conquered Wentworth in five tries. It might be a little too claustrophobic for the Canadian and Scottish Open winner, but he's on the radar for one of the big desert events soon.
Instead, I'm moving further down the board with a pair of players with tree-lined, wind-affected form, that seem far too big this week.
Guido Migliozzi is almost impossible to read, but he gave notice when flying late in Crans and may be a far fresher player than those that competed at Royal County Down just a few days ago.
The Italian won at the 'other' Kenya track, Karen, before winning the Belgian Knockout at another plotters course, Rinkven, just three months later.
The world seemed at his feet but it took three years before he won again, this time when beating last week's champ Rasmus Hojgaard at Le Golf National (final round 62) and subsequently when winning a play-off at windy and tricky track, The International, for the KLM title.
The 27-year-old should probably have won when beaten in a decider at The Belfry in 2021, but combine that with form at Himmerland, Qatar, Valderrama and Crans, and he should be approaching the sort of form that saw him finish 13th in the shortened 2022 running of this event.
It was his short game that got him into the top-10 last time out, making it his second top-10 and third finish inside the top 13 at the European Masters, but he was consistently in the top echelons for his approach game for a good spell during the Spring.
It isn't perfect, but 80/1 shots aren't, yet his overall form and suitability suggest he should be a good few points shorter.
Once again, Matteo Manassero was tempting, but at three-figures, I'll take a chance with Ewen Ferguson, whose overall form is plenty good enough for this week's test.
Ignoring his missed-cut on debut is easy enough, and last year he missed the weekend by a single shot, the effort following a spell of winning at Galgorm Castle and losing out to a bizarrely good display of putting by Oliver Wilson at Himmerland.
The victory at the ISPS Handa was the second of three titles he now holds, the first coming in tough windy conditions at Doha, the latest when winning the BMW International, having showed up well in both the Netherlands and in Italy and, potentially, he could be sitting on a nap hand having let a solid overnight lead go awry at Karen in 2022, and being the best player on the park in Denmark.
The Scot's irons are leading to positive figures for tee-to-green and his 12th and 22nd in both the Scottish Open and Open Championship show he can compete at the highest level, and with three wins in 77 top-level starts, he appears overpriced.
Fellow Doha winner, Sami Valimaki, is also worth a look at prices around 100/1.
The Finn, now off a spell on the PGA Tour, has caught the eye at both the Czech Masters and Irish Open over the last month and has enough form in similar conditions to be a play this week.
Winner in tough, windy conditions in Oman, the selection has also featured in Qatar (1st) , tree-lined Joburg (2nd), at the linksy BMW International (4th), Alfred Dunhill Links (6th) and here, when 13th on debut, and his initial foray onto the PGA Tour hasn't been without highlights, namely running-up at the Mexico Open and finishing 12th at Deere Run.
His putting was up there with the best at Royal County Down, so whilst he'll probably need to tidy up his long game a touch, at the price I'll take the chance.
Adrian Otaegui has done me a few favours in the past, and it's always tough to leave out an impressive Valderrama winner around a tree-lined track.
Another winner at Rinkven, his wins at the Scottish Championship (by four strokes from Matt Wallace), at the Andalucia Masters (by six shots) and lately at the China Open (from Guido) make the 31-year-old one to look at any time that ball-striking is the order of the day.
Back-form includes top five finishes at Bernardus, Scandi Mixed, Perth, Qatar, Tshwane Open and Kenya, all plenty enough to pique interest, but after losing his way from tee to green through July and August, he bounced back to lead the field in driving accuracy and greens through the four days of the Irish Open.
Those figures returned the Spaniard to the form he was showing earlier on in the season and he arrives looking to follow up three years of consistent play, finishing 26t, 13th and 49th.
As an aside, take a look at the 4/1 offered about Otaegui in the top-20 market.
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