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0-3; -6.00pts Matteo Manassero - 1.25 points each-way 45/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365) 47th
Sean Crocker - 1.0 point each-way 50/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365) 20th
Andrea Pavan - 0.75 points each-way 70/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365) mc
After a couple of events at unfamiliar tracks, it feels good to be back in the warm arms of the Golfclub München Eichenried, host of the BMW International Open for the fourth time in succession.
After a history of rotation, the event looks to have settled at this regulation par-72, the circa 7300-yard track offering up the standard four par-3s and four longer holes, split equally over a pair of nine-holes measuring almost exactly half the total yardage.
There is little surprise for the players on this well-worn yet respected course, and the last four events held here probably cover the extremes when talking of the winner's likely score this week.
From Hao-Tong Li's tee-to-green masterclass and 22-under in 2022 to last season's victory by Thriston Lawrence in a full nine strokes more, it is likely that conditions will play a major part this week. In looking at the event, it seems a very useful thing coming off both The International and Adriatic, both courses that required a fair degree of technical skill in the wind, and an ability to play away from danger.
Where that matters more is the move away from the US Open, traditionally the precursor to this event. Last year, we also had to contend with players frantically attempting to make their way into the Ryder Cup team as well as getting to grips with the new pathway onto the PGA big bucks. Hopefully, we'll find that current form (particularly over relevant tracks) leads on on a more straight-forward path than guessing who has come out best from a tough major championship.
Points to note
I'm happy to row along with the thoughts from last week in Italy - links form and associated events.
Defending champ Lawrence had a stellar 2022, winning three events including the European Masters at Crans before overcoming a poor first half of 2023 and adding this title to his name. That links (sorry) beautifully with the likes of Lee Westwood (winner here at Crans), Thomas Bjorn (two-time winner at both), cross-champions Miguel-Angel Jiminez and Colin Montgomerie.
Put that alongside the names Stenson, Kaymer and Fisher, all of whom have significant form at both, but who also join Willett, Westwood and Howell as those that have won the Dunhill Links Championship. Indeed, current Sky Golf anchorman Nick Dougherty has three top-level; trophies in his cabinet - two of those being the 2007 Dunhill Links and the 2011 BMW International. The form goes on through 2019 champion Andrea Pavan, winner of the 2018 Czech Masters (from yer man Pod Harrington, Links champ and a multiple runner-up in Germany) and with a 5th and 10th at the much-discussed pro-am, and 2023 PGA graduate Ryan Fox, 3/14/26 here and runner-up in his defence of the 2022 St. Andrews showcase.
There is plenty more evidence beyond even that, with two-time Czech champ Thomas Pieters holding a record here of 2/29/18 and pointing to Abu Dhabi, whilst the Rocco Forte and Oman, are all relevant when discussing the ability to play on undulation, wind-affected courses.
Strokes gained
Off-the-tee seems to matter as little around here as anywhere of standard fare, with Lawrence following the theme set by Pavan and Li. Have your irons dialled in to correct yardages and scramble like mad if you miss one. Italy saw a real mix of talents, and that's likely to be the theme we saw last week. Tee-to-green stats are formed of a number of factors and I'd rather stay with the irons over driver, with plenty of opportunity coming up for the true bombers.
Selections
This looks a tough week, excellent to watch, but hard to decipher even with the mounds of history.
For the second week in a row, Patrick Reed is put as clear favourite with the bookmakers. I didn't read of a single tip for him in Italy but whilst the former Masters champ didn't catch any pigeons, he was eye-catching in finishing 29th after ranking 3rd for approach and 5th for tee-to-green. It's hard to judge what he's been doing on LIV, but he recorded minus figures at both the PGA and last week, enough to put me off at 14/1.
Bernd Wiesberger looks like a winner waiting to happen, supported by an excellent record here, but has lost his mojo off the tee and might need to be a wizard from the wrong positions. Fellow 20/1 chance Ryan Fox, however, was a definite possibility given his record at St. Andrews and win at Wentworth. However, recent PGA efforts look regressive, and despite three top-10s over the last few weeks, the stats read as though there is either an issue or fatigue. Flying over from Michigan seems one too many negatives, but I'll keep an eye on him for any encouragement for next week at the Scottish Open.
I'm starting the card with a well-worn name, who still remains fairly treated by the bookmakers despite recent form.
Last week, Matteo Manassero landed his second successive top-10 and his fourth in nine starts, yet can be backed at 10 points bigger price than another of last week's selections, Ewen Ferguson, a player that is badly struggling to finish off on a Sunday and who has a pair of missed cuts from three outings here.
The 31-year-old Italian also has two weekends off here, but that was back in 2015 and 2017 when his long-term struggles were making themselves visible in the results.
That period has been covered in numerous pages, let alone on the handful of times he's been put up in this column, so concentrate on the obvious good.
Two wins on the 2023 Challenge Tour preempted fifth place at the South African Open and the Italian has kicked on again this season, rising 200-odd places in the rankings thanks to a win at Glendower, a haven for lovers of tree-lined par-72 golfers. Since then, the former amateur superstar has racked up 5th in India, 13th at the Soudal, and latest results of 7th at the KLM and last week's home Open.
This week's main selection was highly consistent last week, ranking 26th, 3rd, 1st and 21st for greens-in regulation across the four days, equating to 10th for iron play and tee-to-green. Those figures were Manassero's eighth top-20 ranking for approaches this year, whilst he has only once been out of the same position for tee-to-green over the same period, when 21st in Belgium.
Pre-downfall, Manassero finished 55th here on debut before 22nd and 14th, whilst his finishes and win at Wentworth (admittedly a fair time ago) as well as 3rd at Crans and top-10 at the Czech Masters all point to suitable conditions and he is doing plenty to convince of any top performance this week.
Rather like the much-missed Adrian Meronk, off playing for the LIV bucks, Sean Crocker first caught the eye at the 2020 Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek, another quality South African parkland track. Both couldn't quite cope with the tricky back-nine and, whilst the American has struggled for consistency, the best of 2021 reads like a perfect guide for this week's test.
In a four-week spell, the 27-year-old finished runner-up at the Czech Masters, 4th at Crans, 18th at the Marco Simone and 9th at Wentworth, a run to savour when looking for correlations this week.
2022 was quiet, average efforts perforated by a 7th at the Soudal Open (Fox 2nd, Pieters 9th) and his sole DPWT win, at Fairmont St. Andrews, home to the Scottish Open and victories for too many links-positive players to ignore, and despite injury concerns, '23 did have it's highlights.
Runner-up at the Scandi Mixed was followed by a 14th here, ranking top-5 for approaches and 3rd for greens-in-regulation for the second year in a row, while a top-10 in Qatar and 20th at the Nedbank are all again positives for the next few days.
So to this season where in 11 starts, Crocker has made seven cuts, finishing 6th at the opening Dubai Invitational, 16th in Bahrain, and latterly 23rd in the Netherlands and a closing 3rd in Italy a couple of days ago. His tee-to-green stats have used varying assets over the past month but have resulted in rankings of 21st at Green Eagle, 12th at the KLM and 17th last week at the Adriatic. With his putting improving over the past fortnight, the run to next week's event at Fairmont is the perfect time to catch him.
In a tricky heat, just one more wager.
Andrea Pavan wouldn't be the most hardy player when in front, but it was an admirable effort to finish tied-fifth last week after losing his first-round lead very quickly during the second round, and he arrives here after a pair of top-5 finishes in similar company.
His two wins at this level couldn't read much better - a two-shot victory at the Czech Masters from Pod and a play-off win here from Matt Fitzpatrick - whilst he also followed with a top-3 when defending at Albatross, finished in fourth place behind Wiesbereger at the Renaissance, had successive top-10s at the Alfred Dunhill Links and has a host of top finishes in Morocco, at the Gary Player and at Crans.
The former Texas A&M student (home of Cameron Champ and current DPWT players Adri Arnaus and Nacho Elvira) has had a decent first half of the year, finishing 11th at Glendower, 35th at the shortened China Open, 24th at Soudal, 51st at what would been a far too long Green Eagle, and 4th and 5th over the last two weeks.
Never going to be one of the bombers, Pavan caught the eye at his home event with a stats-leading effort for approaches and bogeys, fifth for greens-in-regulation, and recorded positive numbers for the short game. He's on a run and on the right course.
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