1-4; +4.00pts
Frederic Lacroix - 1 point each-way 45/1 (Unibet, 1/5 6 places) 4th Pablo Larrazabal - 1 point each-way 55/1 (Unibet 1/5 6 places) 50/1 fine (General) 29th Ross Fisher - 0.25 each-way 110/1 (Bet365 1/5 8 places) 65th Oliver Wilson - 0.25 each-way 450/1 (Bet365 1/5 8 places) mc Oliver Wilson - 1 point Top-30 finish 7/1 (Bet365) mc
Out of the UAE, but the DP World Tour continues its stay in the sun with a couple of weeks left in the Middle East.
The long-standing Qatar Masters arrives in a week's time, but first a visit to Bahrain for the first time since 2011. Back then, in what seems a completely different golf landscape, Paul Casey finally took charge of an ever-changing leaderboard to win the inaugural Volvo Golf Champions, summing up the final round as brutal.
"We thought it was going to be benign, but we faced a course that was treacherous," said Casey, after picking up the trophy, highlighting the main defence against this scorable course.
Early-round scores of 63 flattered the final round as the wind picked up, with the difficult run-in proving as hard as any on the traditional swing.
12 years later, things have certainly moved on. However, the Royal GC continues to garner favourable reviews from all levels of golfer, all commenting on the beauty of the location, as well as the undulating fairways and slopey greens. Mix those links-positive conditions with some fairway hugging water (particularly down the stretch) and, whilst there have been changes on some of the greens, you have a Colin Montgomerie design that screams European Tour.
While tee-times may affect the scoring - early slots look much preferred as a rule - in 2011, only two players from the final top-12 shot any single round over par (72 and 73), suggesting Royal GC offers up enough birdies to get close enough to 20-under as a final score. Form coming in was mixed - of the top five players, Robert Karlsson was making seasonal debut, but had won the then Tour Championship to finish 2010, Stephen Gallacher warmed up with a midfield 31st place at Abu Dhabi, two shots behind Bahrain champ Casey (18th) and a further stroke off Miguel Angel Jimenez in 11th, while Peter Hanson left a steady finish to 2010 behind with a missed-cut at Abu.
Of much more relevance is the continual correlation between much of the top five that involves Abu Dhabi, Dubai Desert Classic and Wentworth.
Casey, Gallacher and MAJ have all won at the Dubai Desert Classic, Casey beat Hanson and MAJ by a single shot at the 2007 Abu Dhabi event, whilst the Englishman and Spanish legend have won at Wentworth. Even course designer Montgomerie comes into this, having been Wentworth king on three occasions, beating MAJ by a shot at the 1996 DDC and winning the Dunhill Links a year after Gallacher had triumphed and three before Karlsson's victory..
Points to note
Correlation to win/links - the evidence is old, but the connection to the events mentioned above - Abu, Dubai, Wentworth and the Dunhill Links - are strong. The tour has changed, equipment improved and field strength raised a notch, but confidence in strong iron play, particularly under links conditions looks key.
Scrambling - Connected with the above, missing undulating greens will require a skill-set involving scrambling (think St. Andrews, scoreable, but dangerous if missing greens).
It's been tough for punters looking outside of the top two favourites in all three events so far. Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy and Thorbjorn Olesen have all been short enough for their victories, whilst fancied players have filled the majority of each-way places.
This week, I'm hoping for change and avoiding the very top of the market. Rasmus Hojgaard has a similar field to beat as when 12/1 last week but, as he has done more than a couple of times, stalled when hitting the front. Yannik Paul is hitting the ball like a dream and continues to impress without winning. However, with the unpredictability of the wind this week, I was looking for more than 18/1.
Plenty of players in the sub-40/1 range hold claims on their best form, and whilst respect is due to Antoine Rozner and Romain Langasque, it's tough to avoid the claims of their compatriot, three-time Alps Tour winner Frederic Lacroix.
The 28-year-old Frenchman qualified for the main tour via the 2021 Challenge Tour, recording a trio of runner-up finishes on his way to a 5th place on the end-of season lists. Prior to that, three wins on the development tour saw him victorious by a total of 10 shots, winning in 15, 28 and 22-under, the first couple in 54-hole events.
He missed retaining his card by a whisker, despite a top-10 at the BMW International and a significant 12th in Portugal (see the likes of Quiros, Lewis, Harrington and Bjerregaard for proven links form) but 2023 saw him take advantage of his few chances at DPWT level.
Finishing in fifth place at Green Eagle nods vigorously to Casey, whose form there reads 6/1/7, whilst a top-10 finish at the Scandi Mixed and six top-10s on the Challenge Tour give a belief in his consistency at this level.
The new season has gone particularly well for the selection, now on a run of 17th (Joburg), 5th (Blair Atholl) and last weekend's third place finish at Ras, his first outing for six weeks.
It's early doors, but Lacroix is smashing the ball off the tee and directing it where he wants it, leading him to rank 8th, 6th and 2nd for tee-to-green. Now on his 10th cut in a row, I'm happy to ride the train on a player that may yet prove worth a much shorter price come mid-season.
With doubts surrounding a few maidens at shorter prices than they have been of late, the biggest standout looks to be Pablo Larrazabal, a player with no qualms about sticking his head in front, and in better fields.
A nine-time winner on the DP/European Tour, four wins were split equally in 2022 and 2023, just that fact making him far more attractive at the price than the likes of Langasque, with a sole win back in 2020, non-winner Zander Lombard and several maidens, all of whom trade significantly shorter than the mercurial Spaniard.
Although now 40 years of age, he struck the ball well at both Dubai outings, ranking in the top 20 for irons and tee-to-green, whilst continuing an excellent run of short-game prowess. Indeed, scrambling is Pablo's best asset, a factor that could be vital here, should he be able to continue his tee to green figures at a course on which he was top-25 when held as a 'champions' event.
He certainly did not look fazed by a missed cut when pictured by the beach last weekend, clearly believing he still has what it takes after weekend rounds of 68 and 67 at Dubai Creek, and a best-of-the-day closing 66 at Emirates against a superior field.
Ignore last week's miss. You will always get sporadic form spikes with the likes of Pablo, and he did win two events in three weeks last season - Korea, a week after a missed-cut in Japan, and then the KLM after a low-down finish at the USPGA.
In terms of suitability, it is all here. Winner, runner-up and 6th at Abu Dhabi golf club read well against Casey's two wins and a ninth place, whilst three top-12 finishes at Wentworth and a best-ever 4th at Emirates top the connections. Form in China, Saudi, Ras (2022) helps form his case, and he comes here having played some of the best iron stats of his career.
The middle of the market looks too tough to navigate, and whilst Andy Sullivan made some appeal on his best form in the Middle East, I'll throw a few shekels on one of last week's selections, Ross Fisher.
It's doubtful the 43-year-old has any improvement left, but it may suit this wily veteran if the wind does get up and it gets a bit too much for the all-out pin-seekers.
Past form includes some nice correlation, being runner-up behind Casey at the 2009 BMW Championship and filling the same position behind Karlsson at the Dunhill Links. That's enough to give interest, even if it's a long while ago.
However, Fisher has some more recent form to justify a pick at a big price, running-up twice at the Links before splitting Fleetwood and McIlroy at the 2018 Abu Dhabi Championship, Closer to today, the selection beat most of this field when in second place behind Ryan Fox in Ras in 2022, finishing that year with five straight top-25 payouts, including Portugal and the Nedbank. Last season was similar, with two top-10s, at Ras and Himmerland, as well as four top-25 finishes that included that links event, The K Club and the South African Open.
A pair of missed cuts would not appear to be the ideal preparation for a win attack, but he was on the number at Ras, putting up what appears to be far better numbers that at his opener, and those six cuts in-a-row, from August to December, are still fresh enough in the mind.
Finally, a huge stab at Oliver Wilson, impossible to predict but very capable of causing a shock under these conditions.
The 43-year-old has famously won just twice on the European Tour, but both are significant.
Back in 2014, the Englishman beat both Fleetwood and McIlory to the Alfred Dunhill Links, before taking eight years to beat the best player on the park, Ewen Ferguson, with a stunning home-straight display in Denmark. There's no doubt that the Scot would have been firmly on the radar for this week, and it's up there with the best of available recent form.
Long-time current form suggests he may be on a slump again, but current form has never been a baramoter of what he'slikely to produce from one week to the next After all, it is just seven months since he gained silver at The Belfry and 16-odd weeks since a top-25 at the shortened Links, where a final round 65 lay up with the best of the day.
With past form containing a play-off loss to Jimenez at Wentworth (Karlsson in 3rd), as well as form in China and Qatar, it's worth a poke at a silly price, as well as on the top-30 market.
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