Mid-July and the final major championship of the season.
It still seems bizarre that the genuine history-makers of the game have just until the end of July to make their mark, but the 2019 move to run the PGA Championship in May (from August) has meant a very congested time for players to create their own legendary status.
Tiger's you-know-what chip in, Phil's approach from pine straw and through the trees, Lyle's second to 18, Bubba's banana shot....just some of the memories from Augusta that stay forever. Similarly, Pod staring down Sergio at Carnoustie, his grind in +3 the following year, Louis' incredible seven-shot win at St. Andrews, Spieth's get-out-of-jail card at Birkdale, Lowry thrashing his field at Portrush, Cam Smith's record-equalling 20-under victory over a heart-broken Rory McIlroy on the Old Course and latterly Brian Harman's incredible mid-two rounds last year, each one a moment in time that stays in the mind at this time of year.
They can talk about the US Open and, sure, it's not far behind, but whilst they are so different in set-up, these are the two events that stand out each and every year.
Royal Troon is the host for the 10th time in Open history, twice since the start of the century. 2004 saw rank outsider Todd Hamilton see off two-time champion and three-time runner-up Ernie Els in a four-hole play-off after both had recorded 10-under, while in 2016, eventual champion Henrik Stenson and runner-up Phil Mickelson recorded book-end 63s on the way to much lower scores of 20 and 17-under the card.
Organiser's have lengthened the South Ayrshire course by a couple of hundred yards this year, keeping it as a par-71 but lengthening a few holes, most notably the par-5 6th hole to just over 620-yards, a true test in a sideways wind. With blind tee shots and severe bunkering, perhaps that 20-under is a thing of the past - it will, as always in this event, all be down to the wind.
The opening half-a-dozen holes are where to strike. 2016 champ Stenson commented "that’s where you need to make your scores," before noting that it's "definitely harder to make up the score in the back nine." Ironically, beaten three shots, but nine shots clear of third, Mickelson was adamant that being a left-hander makes the course an almost opposite challenge - "I’m more cautious on the birdie holes, and I feel much more comfortable on the inward nine, where the wind is kind of a hooked wind off the water for me."
Remarkably, even under the pressure of being in the final pairing, neither of those top-class players dropped a shot in 36 holes between them on Sunday and that's probably the key factor. This is a test of patience and plotting.
Although both the last two course winners ranked in the top-11 for driving distance, they were solid throughout their game, finding fairways and greens, recording figures in the top 11 for scrambling and making three-putts a rarity. Indeed, Mickelson commented that good shots get rewarded here, bounces being fair and not taking the ball away from pins, as it does, for example, at St. Andrews.
In that sense, appearing at last week's Scottish Open looks a very worthwhile task, backed up by both the Swede and his foe, tied-13th at Castle Stuart, behind links-positive winner Alex Noren and Tyrrell Hatton. With more PGA Tour players acknowledging this factor and making the journey across to Scotland, the novelty is lessened but has to be considered a crucial piece of preparation (sorry, Scottie). Just being there for four days looks entirely useful given Collin Morikawa came on from a poor effort the week before to win at Royal St. George's.
Although there has been the odd three-figure priced winner, it is the current form that counts whatever the price. Harman came into last year's Open off a runner-up at Travelers, 9th in Detroit and that effort in Scotland, Smith a top-10 in Scotland and. not long before, a win at The Players, 3rd at the PGA and a pair of 13th place finishes on the PGA Tour.
To offer another recent example of current form, Collin Morikawa perhaps should not have drifted as much as he did after that poor effort at the Scottish, with previous recent form including 8th at the PGA, 2nd at Memorial and 4th at the US Open. It is big time names for big time events.
Dave Tindell's 10-year-trends piece is always worth a look, with even the man himself surprised how often it locates the winner/contender at a major.
For me, the most interesting stat is that every one of the last 10 Open champions has had a top-two finish in a previous major. Make it course relevant and Stenson finished runner-up three years before his win (ironically behind Mickelson) whilst Lefty himself had five major championships and 10 runner-ups on the card. Go figure!
Points to note
All round game - Despite recording winning figures that nobody really wants to see, every year this is a grind. It may not be the brute of the earlier 2000s when nine of the first 14 Open championships finished in 10-under or higher (including Pod at +3) but even Smith, at 20-under, and a cruising Harman, at 13-under, fought for every shot.
Bombing it here may be an advantage but it has to come with control. Bunkers are usually bad here - forget the easy up-and-downs we see each week - find the greens and don't lose shots unnecessarily.
Recent form - Players must be in good recent form. While form from both sides of the Atlantic are useful, immediate form in Scotland is very much a pointer. 2020 Scottish Open champ, Aaron Rai, isn't a player often linked with major status, but finished 19th at both St. Andrews and earlier this year at Pinehurst (top-10 after first round) and is now beginning to challenge every week in elite fields. 2022 winner, Xander, speaks for himself with a stunning major record, topped off with the victory at Valhalla this year.
Even shock 2022 champ Min Woo Lee, a sure-fire challenger in the coming years, has gone on to finish 5th at the US Open at the LACC (Rory runner-up) and 21st and 41st at The Open, both lying in the top-12 at the halfway mark. Runners-up were Tommy Fleetwood, with a multitude of top finishes and a pair of runner-up placings at major championships, including at Portrush, and Matt Fitzpatrick, winner of the 2022 US Open.
Selections
This could almost be a repeat of last week's selections, all of which may not have paid out, but did enough to warrant going in once again.
It looks easy enough to make a case for all of the top lot in the market, and even easier to believe one of those at 33/1 and shorter will be holding the Claret Jug come Sunday.
Top for me though, is a repeat bet on Xander Schauffele, looking to follow up a very encouraging 15th last weekend.
On the checklist, he qualifies for interest on his tied runner-up behind Frani Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018, having jointly held the lead going into payday. That made it three top-10s in his first five majors, a theme he has continued since, with 10 top-10s and that vital win at Valhalla, the catalyst for a very consistent run of form.
8th at Jacks' Place was followed by another top-10 at the US Open, an event at which his worst ever finish is 14th from eight starts, before 13th at the Travelers and last week's 15th at the Scottish Open, both events that appear on his champion's CV.
After being 2-under through 11 holes of his first round, the 30-year-old made the only bogey of the event, thereafter recording 61 holes without a dropped shot. The stats are there, ranking 1st, 3rd and 12th for greens-in-regulation for the final three rounds, but no better than 36th for putting average. In today's numbers, 3rd for approaches, 19th tee-to-green but 26th for strokes-gained-putting, all figures that tally up with much of the year so far, listed on the PGA Tour as 12th off-the-tee, 5th in approach, 10th for putting, 11th for greens-in-reg and 1st for three-putt avoidance. Impressive stuff.
Mickelson commented that after his top-15 effort at the Scottish Open he knew he had to improve his lag putting, and that looks remarkably similar to the fate of the main selection. Now free of the nonsense that surrounded his comments on the new US Ryder Cup captain, and a far better player than the one with a runner-up, 15th and 17th at this event, he looks primed to inch that little bit closer to Scottie SDcheffler at the top of the world rankings.
I was tempted to go back to Tommy Fleetwood as he weirdly gave me vibes of Ewen Ferguson last week.
Whilst the Scot has been a multiple winner on tour, he had been letting good chances go after being in contention on a Sunday. Of course, when giving up on him, he shone through tough conditions in Italy, and Fleetwood gives the impression that last week's Sunday collapse would bring him on.
Of course, the man from Southport is, as yet, a league higher than Fergie, but I'd much rather be on if it turned nasty and was likely to be won in single figures under par. At the price, I'm just about passing.
Instead, despite trying, I can't make a case for turning down Collin Morikawa, holder of the PGA/Open championship double sought by Xander.
The two-time major winner looked in rude health last week putting up his fifth successive set of positive figures that include an average of 18th for putting, a serious improvement on a lifetime of poor efforts and surely offering up a renewed confidence. To make his case stronger, last week's top-five came after a very poor course record of 71st and a missed-cut, the former leading to that two-shot victory over Jordan Spieth in Sandwich.
Now holding seven top-10s from 19 majors (not including the wins) the former elite amateur (was alongside Scottie at the 2017 Walker Cup) is having his most consistent major season thus far, finishing 3rd at Augusta, T4 at Valhalla and T14 at Pinehurst.
Morikawa's clubs had a slight tweak last week - according to aTaylorMade rep they were "taking away nothing and giving a tiny bit of something in forgiveness [on the slight misses].
Off a tee-to-green game that you can rely on and now ranking in the top-15 for the flat stick on three of the last four occasions, he will do for me.
Wyndham Clark is holding on to 60/1 having been as big as 80/1 in the outright but, despite his claims on the form-book, his Open record doesn't inspire for win purposes. Instead he'll go in as the best value top-20 shot on the card.
The 30-year-old (it's that age again) was ranked outside the world's top-160 at the end of 2022 but an excellent 2023 saw him rise inside the top-10, missing just one cut in the entire season and courtesy of a four-shot victory over Xander at the Wells Fargo and a remarkable victory at the US Open, held at LACC.
Whilst the form at Quail Hollow reads nicely, his beating of McIlroy, Scheffler, Smith, Fowler and Lee is a huge pointer to his chance at a similar test, let alone him drawing away from his field during the opening holes of the final round.
2024 saw Clark beat much of this week's field at windy Pebble Beach, running-up to Scheffler at Bay Hill and Sawgrass, and finishing in third at the Heritage, behind yer man Scottie. Arriving here after two flying final rounds at River Highlands (63) and at Renaissance last week (62) he can repeat his use of power off the tee and putting prowess to finish in the top echelons and comfortably land a no-stress wager.
The final pick goes to a veteran that I believe I've never backed before in any of his 562 previous professional starts, took a bit bigger on Saturday night, but might still know too much for a good deal of these.
Social media was all over Adam Scott's 'driver off the deck' last week and, whilst undeniably a thing of beauty (if hitting a dimpled ball with a bit of metal can ever be so), it did show just how good the Aussie is when it comes to judging the wind and dropping the ball short on the green , allowing it to run it's distance. Where point-and-shoot isn't so much of an advantage, the 43-year-old can still compete.
Naturally, folk return to the collapse at the 2012 Open, losing a four-shot lead down the stretch, but he is a multiple top-10 major regular and looks to be returning close to the form he showed in the mid-2010s, when racking up a sequence of 2/T3/T5/T10 from 2012 to 2015 inclusive.
During that period he won the Masters, in a famous play-off from Angel Cabrera, and an Australian PGA (again in 2019) and when conditions are suitable, he pops up to show he still has what it takes to compete.
The most recent advert, of course, is last week's runner-up, where he did nothing wrong in finding an inspired Robert MacIntyre just a shot too good, putting up some figures that encourage the bet this week.
6th off-the-tee, 7th for tee-to-green, 6th for greens-in-reg and in the top echelons for putting, as he was a week previous at Travelers, all read very nicely for this week.
The start of the season was a possible pointer, with four made cuts and a worst finish of 20th, while a mini-run between The Players and Wells Fargo once again showed consistency that we hadn't seen for a while. Now on another mini-run of five consecutive cuts, his figures start with a 12th at Colonial, at which he is a previous winner, and scene of victories by Open champions Tom Watson, Zach Johnson, Mickelson and Spieth and a myriad of cross-form from the likes of Garcia, Leonard, Keopka amongst others.
Follow that with 32nd at the US Open, 39th at Travelers (opened with a 74, final round 64) and last week's improved effort, and the 19-time major top-10er looks primed to do his thing on the windy East coast, commenting last week that, "It's the first time I've been in contention this year," before giving backers a boost. "I like where my game is headed going into next week. Feel like I'm playing at a high level."
