Preview & Tips by Halfway House

 

One of China's most exclusive venues, the Shenzhen course may have an unfamiliar name - Hidden Grace - but it's a well-worn path for three runnings of the Shenzhen International, held for three consecutive years from 2015, and the 2019 China Open, all under its previous moniker, Genzon Golf Club. 

The track also held two runnings of the China Open on the home tour, and an International Series event in 2023. Form for that may be at a lesser level that is required this week but it's notable that two weeks ago, 2021 champion Jin Zhang was a last-gasp qualifier for this week's event, so all experience counts.

The course centres around the large Dragon Lake, but at average length (less than 7200-yards) and with forgiving fairways, it's a course on which the brave should find plenty of opportunity, although the 2019 leaderboard suggests all types of players can succeed here.

Winner Mikko Korhonen was successful for only the second (and final) time in his 359-event career, beating European Tour maiden Benjamin Hebert in a play-off. Behind, Jorge Campillo, known for his success on the more tricky tracks, held off a fellow pair of desert lovers in Hao-Tong Li and Mike Lorenzo-Vera. The best we can get out of that is a quality set of tee-to-green merchants, backed up by the figures.

Five of the top-10 were in the top-12 in tee-to-green, that particular table headed by Jordan Smith (T5) and Hebert, first and second. Those two had contrasting success off the tee but got the maximum out of their approach play, a factor that was apparent in Sarit Suwannarut's win here last November, when three of the first four commanded the short par-5s.

The vast majority of the 2019 leaderboard had previous around here, all of them improving on their first look. Korhonen had finished no better than 24th in three outings, Hebert two missed-cuts and a best of 35th, Campillo hadn't bested 25th in four previous outings, and Smith improved on his 14th place on debut. The well-travelled Ashun Wu has surprisingly only played the course three times, the best again being his latest top-five in 2019.

In contrast, the mercurial talent that is HaoTong Li has been very in-and-out, his 4th place being his second top-5 in five outings, although two missed-cuts and 50th place demonstrate his all-or-nothing game. The same description can be levied (sorry) at Alex Levy, victorious here in 2014 but, contrastly, making his course debut, as was Kiradech Aphibarnrat in 2015, Soomin Lee in 2016 and Bernd Wiesberger a year later. It's a mixed bag.

Four years ago, all of Korhonen, Hebert, Campillo and Li were in good form, with the Spaniard coming off a win at the Trophee Hassan, an event Levy won four years later, when the Finn tied in third place with Alexander Bjork. The latter ties it in nicely, winning the China Open champion at Topwin, a year after Levy's second China championship at the same venue.

Levy approached the 2014 running with a top-20 finish, Alphie after a top-six at Bay Hill, Wiesberger, another arriving after a successful run of events in higher class, this time including the Masters, and whilst Soomin Lee wasn't in great immediate form, it had been only a few weeks since three top seven finishes, including running up in Malaysia, with Campillo in fourth place.

While Suwannarut had no recent form to speak of, I'm taking the line that favours those with an immediate top-20 finish or several top-15 finishes over the past couple of months. Things may be skewed by the relative lack of action throughout April but get used to it - we are due another break after the conclusion of the Asian Swing.

There will be a lot talked about the vulnerability of the four par-5s this week. November's event suggests a big influence but the 2019 running, held in decent enough weather, was much different.

The longer holes contributed just 6-under to the winner's 20-under total while fellow play-off contender Hebert found the par-5s contributing half his score.Campillo was another with just a third of his total scored on the same holes. 

In total, the top-10 scored a combined 166-under the card, the par-5s contributing a combined 71-under, with nobody recording better than 10-under for their 16 opportunities.

There has been a bit of rain at the course, which will ensure that length is an advantage but it may be the par-4 play that seperates.

As the last couple of events shows, it appears best to leave the short priced favourites well alone, none of them looking convincing over the past two events.

India saw the better-known European names fall by the wayside and, whilst Nakajima wasn't a surprise at around 30/1, runners-up Ahlawat and Johannes Veerman saw triple-figure punters well rewarded.

Splitting those names, Sebastian Soderberg was the best of the shorties, as he was on Sunday,when dividing winner Katsuragawa (100/1) and Kinoshita, the two Japanese again showing local advantage bias.

The shorter price players have had their chances but the likes of Yannik Paul (sub 20/1 for both the last two events), Hojgaard, Fergsuon and Smith have simply proved not up to the task at the prices offered, so we'll delve deeper.

I wanted so much to be with Tom McKibbin this week. The course should suit, he has a bit about him that reminds me of previous winners here and he is on a 2024 run of form that reads 7/mc/9/12. His efforts off the tee suit this place, and he is the one name that could eventually be on another level. However, I felt 20/1 was only just right, so the current 18/1 is reluctantly left alone - he'll be a bigger price in a better field.

Although tough to take a huge downturn in price, recent results suggest home players go very well on these co-sanctioned events, and HaoTong Li is by far and away the best of them on this occasion.

As mentioned above, the 28-year-old has been impossible to read at times, but his best form sees him relate very well here, even giving up that excellent course record that sees him top five in 2019 and 2021.

A shock winner at Topwin in 2016, his two victories since have been off decent, recent form, ending 2017 in terrific form (4th Nedbank, 13th DPWT Championship, T19 Hong Kong) before a warm-up missed-cut in Abu Dhabi. Four years later, Li won the BMW International, beating Thomas Pieters in a play-off after coming into the event off T37 at the Dutch Open and an immediate T18 at Green Eagle, the latter event won by McKibbin a year later, and a source of reward for the flashier driver.

2024 has been a busy year and after eight starts, he is yet to miss a cut. Opening up with finishes of 14th and 7th in Dubai (on both occasions could have been better) he's back in top form with a pair of top-20 finishes at the Saudi Open and in Japan last week. Better still, the selection lay in third place at both events after three rounds.

This is probably the shortest price we will see Li at for the entire season, but it's for good reason. He hits the ball a mile, has a top class iron game when right and is proven to putt on these greens.Back-form is in the more open links-type course in Dubai, Scilly and at the Dunhill Links, and he has enough about him to rank well at Le Golf National, Gary Player and in Malaysia. It all fits.

Big-hitting Sam Bairstow has already made waves in his rookie year, and looks the type to relish the open fairways of Hidden Grace.

Another accomplished amateur, ranking a best of 7th in the WAGR, the man from Sheffield has progressed significantly from a maiden win at the Scottish Challenge - "While it wasn't a links course it did have a linksy feel. I love links golf and I always seem to play well in links conditions," - starting with a top-20 at Galgorm Castle before a run of 8th in Switzerland, 23rd in Hainan and 4th at the Challenge Tour finale.

Of course, it may not come down to brute strength. This isn't Blair Atholl or Green Eagle, so the shorter drivers shouldn't be ignored, particularly if they are as good as Adrian Otaegui, four-time winner on tour, including the Scottish Championship (bookend rounds of 62 and 63) and a tonking of his Valderrama field less than two years ago.

Since that victory, performances have been steady rather than spectacular but the last two seasons have seen the Spaniard finish runner-up at the KLM, in fourth at Galgorm and top-10 when defending his Andelucia Masters title, this time at the driver-heavy Sotogrande.

Best of '24 sees a contrast with top-five in Kenya and top-25 at St. Francis Links, and a more recent pair of top-30 finishes in India and Japan. All that sees the selection rank 5th for tee-to-green over the last eight weeks - table here - with his driving accuracy, approaches and tee-to-green as high as anyone playing this week.

Otaegui hasn't played here since 2017 but has memories of an opening 68/66 on debut in 2014 and is, of course, a far more accomplished player these days.

Having grown his game on the Asian Development Tour, Johannes Veerman might be more comfortable here than most. 

Not short off the tee, the Californian won his only event at this level at the Czech Masters, on the long Albatross course, beating fellow bombers Sean Crocker and Tapio Pulkkanen. That maiden victory came a month after finishing third at the Irish Open behind Lucas Herbert and Rikard Karlberg, both players with heaps of Asian tour form.

2023 didn't end well, although look just behind and that 10th in Himmerland is a pointer, but something clicked in South Africa and the selection has now racked up nine successive cuts, including 16th place at both Dubai and Qatar.

The stats for Singapore do not ring true but we will go with yet another top-10 for greens-in-regulation, a factor he improved on when leading the field in India, notably attacking the course successfully during the final round.

Whilst form in China looks completely opposite to his overall form in Asia, Veerman has to take something from that latest runner-up at the DLF and this forgiving track looks the perfect place to build on an excellent run.

I wanted to back Masihiro Kawamura in some way but I'm undecided how to play at the moment, so I'll turn to one of last week's selections for the final pick.

It's hard to say much more about Matteo Manessero than seven days ago, but the summary is that we have a player with an extraordinary talent that is coming back to form, should be contending in this grade, has won recently, and yet is four times the price than those that haven't seen the winner's enclosure for over a year.