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Jon Rahm to LIV, Rory's admission it all isn't that bad after all, and a PGA Tour season that actually (and logically for once) starts in January, Times they are a-changin'.
Not to outdone, the DP World Tour has also made changes to its schedule. In a major move to become a true world tour, Keith Pelley and pals have revised the schedule to include a series of 'swings', before 'The Back Nine' and a pair of play-off events conclude the revised schedule - read more here.
Those final two events include the concluding DP World Tour Championship (won three times by newly signed LIV player Jon Rahm) and, just prior, the Abu Dhabi Championship, now moved from its regular mid-January slot.
Even without Yas Links, the desert still takes prominence with back-to-back weeks in Dubai. The first Rolex event of the year takes place in a week's time at Emirates Golf Club, straight after an obvious warm-up at one of the new events, the Dubai Invitational, at rarely-used Dubai Creek Resort.
As seems always the case with the Middle East, this week's track looks like a paradise. However, whilst it looks pretty, a few of the review sites list the course well below its near neighbours and Yas Links, a course that should prove its worth in 11 months' time.
With only 60 professional 'invites' accompanying the same amount of amateurs, perhaps organisers were expecting a deeper field than the one assembled this week. Sure, the top half contains names that frequent the leaderboards at major championships, but go past the first 15 or so and we are back to a bog-standard European event.
That shouldn't bother hot favourite Rory McIlroy, a player that could take this 7000-odd yard track apart.
The world number two came straight out the blocks to win at the Emirates last year, so fitness should not be an issue. Coupled with an extraordinary record in this part of the world - five wins and countless top five finishes - he has to be hard to beat.
Layers can point to him needing the run out for all of his outings at Abu when not taking in a rare run at Kapalua, but eight top-three finishes in 12 outings suggest that isn't going to be easy money, and he has less than half the number of players to beat. That said, he'd need to win around 25 of 100 outings to justify 3/1 quotes, and that's not for me, however possible. Neither is the 6/1 about Tommy Fleetwood, coming straight here after a poor 47th at The Setry in Hawaii over the weekend. He's surely a better bet at a bigger price in a deeper field. Whilst the course has held two runnings of the Dubai Desert Classic at the turn of the century, golf has changed too much to rely on evidence from more than twenty years ago, and the modern player has plenty more than just a bomb in his bag.
Points to consider:
Recent form - The majority of winners at Abu (the previous opener to the season) had come off a recent top-10 finish, with the last three champions having finished top-15 at the previous season-ending DP World Tour Championship. Don't worry about the break, in-form players have an extremely strong record here.
Location form - Again, we need to look at both Abu and the Desert Classic, but winners at the Emirates have strong form in the desert, or related wind/links form. It therefore seems logical that high finishes in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as well as Qatar and Ras are almost vital.
DP World Tour Championship - The emerging Thriston Lawrence aside, each one of the top-10 from the finale at last year's DPWTC had at least significant form line in the region, including those away from star status - Wallace runner-twice in Dubai, Pavon a 3rd at Ras and 11th at the Desert Classic, Ferguson winner in Qatar, and Winther with top six finishes at Qatar and Abu. As well as that, recent winners at Yas Links have come in with top-15 finishes from the DPWTC a couple of months prior.
Par-5 performance - Whilst McIlroy put up stunning scoring figures for both his wins at the Emirates, the two winners before him made their score purely from the par-5s. Hovland recorded 10-under for the four longer holes compared with just two-under for the remainder, whilst the par-5s contributed 13 of 17 positive numbers for Paul Casey. Whilst there are only three long holes this week, they must exploit those 12 chances along with the pair of drivable par-4s.
Bogey avoidance - Hard to factor in the confidence on the greens so early on, but the course certainly gives off the impression that three-putting here is giving more than one hole to the field.
Selections (6 points staked) 0-3; -6.00pts
Adrian Meronk 1 point each-way 16/1 Unibet (1/4 five places) 10th
Celebrate the Ryder Cup winners as you will, but just behind them was Adrian Meronk, famously gutted to have missed out on a Captain's pick in Italy. While we need to see who is ready and who needs a run-out, the Pole is the value pick from the top.
It was visibly hurting for a while but he was back winning, this time at the Andalucia Masters, appreciating the move away from stifling Valderrama. That fourth win on the DPWT cemented his position inside the world's top-50, a position he kept with end-of-season finishes of 15th at the Nedbank, T32 at The Emirates (in fourth after round one), and a closing 8th when defending his Australian Open crown.
The Pole links very closely with - four-points shorter - Nicolai Hojgaard through the Italian Open (it's one-all there with their oppo close behind on both occasions) and has six top-10 finishes in the UAE (five in his last eight), including a fourth place at the Desert Classic and top-10 at the 2022 closer. They are close, but Meronk features as a better fit for this shorter, narrower course based on efforts at the Dutch Open, in Kenya and at the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
Rarely out of the top-five for overall driving and ball-striking, he has finished in the top seven for green-in-reg over the past two seasons and, having gained his PGA and majors card, has renewed confidence going into 2024. Rasmus Hojgaard 1 point each way 16/1 General (1/4 five places) 11th This may be a bit too tight for links-positive bomber Ryan Fox, who finished the season in pedestrian style, even if that Wentworth win is still fresh in the mind. Instead, at a similar price, I'll jump on sibling rivalry. There has never been much between the Danish twins, so while Rasmus was quicker out the blocks with two wins in 2019 and 2020, Nicolai has fought back with three wins to two, since 2021. They clearly spur each other on, and that could well have been a key factor in Rasmus' resurgence at the French Open, a return to form that saw him go on a run of two top six finishes and a pair of top-16 and top-26 finishes. It wasn't quite enough to get him one of the vital 10 PGA Tour cards awarded to the likes of Victor Perez and Sami Valimaki, plenty good enough DPWT players but no better than the 2023 winner of his home championship.
During that six month spell, the selection ranked in the top-10 for both total driving and ball-striking. Highlights include a run of four weeks inside the top-10 for 'off-the-tee' (around 25th for accuracy in full fields) and leading the approach and tee-to-green stats at the Nedbank Challenge. Past victories in Mauritius and at The Belfry and Crans give more than enough for a tighter-than-usual Dubai course, whilst his location form is steadily progressive, finishing inside the top 11 at the last two runnings of the tour finale. Dan Bradbury 1 point each-way 33/1 Skybet (without McIlroy, Fleetwood and Nicolai 1/4 five places) 27th With a strong front end, it's good to see a market operating without the top three. Old favourites Adrian Otaegui and Jeff Winther made appeal, whilst a fit-again Ewen Ferguson would relish the challenge, but it was progressive Dan Bradbury that caught the eye. It took just five months as a professional for the 24-year-old to strike gold. a three-shot victory at the Joburg Open a sign he could play shorter tracks despite an impressive distance off the tee. Bradbury entered 2023 around 500th in the world, before climbing his way up to around 150th after top-10 finishes in Belgium and The Belfry, following those with a late-season run of 6th and 13th in Spain, 5th at the Nedbank, 17th at the DPWT and a third placed finish when defending at Houghton. Figures work, with a six-month ranking of 7th for total driving, 5th for ball-striking and 20th for par-5 performance, numbers that appear consistent throughout events. Indeed, from Spain through to the South African Open, the selection ranked only once outside the top-20 off the tee, and only for a single time at both approaches and tee-to-green. Granted, some numbers, particularly outside the main locations, need taking with a small pinch, but his move forwards matches his progressive UAE form. In just four events Bradbury has finished 60th on debut at Abu Dhabi, improving to 28th a week later at the Desert Classic (final group into Sunday), 42nd at Ras (23rd into Sunday) and a consistant 17th at the long Earth Course. He can step up again.
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