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Last week's Dubai Invitational might well have taken place on a fresh course, but the pro-am continued the theme of, 'when in the desert, back desert specialists.'
There were no prizes for assuming Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood would prove too classy for the majority of the limited field but, with links-biased Thorbjorn Olesen up there, as well as 2023 DP World Tour Championship top-15 players Thriston Lawrence, Rasmus Hojgaard and Ewen Ferguson, horses for sandy courses ran true.
The overall standard is raised a level this week as the tour hosts the first of the season's Rolex events, with the prize on offer some four times the money and nearly three times the Race To Dubai ranking points.
As such, Dubai welcomes Brian Harman, the defending Open Champion, as well as Tyrrell Hatton, Padraig Harrington and Francesco Molinari. They join some notable PGA Tour regulars and the majority of last week's field in seeking a quick start to a changed schedule.
Established in 1989, the Emirates Golf Club has hosted every running apart from two events at the turn of the century and patterns have quickly become established.
McIlroy goes for his fourth win in 15 years (13 outings), with three top five finishes and a trio of top-10s rightly seeing him atop the market. There's no Viktor Hovland or Jon Rahm to worry about, Tommy Fleetwood has a moderate record around here and Tyrrell Hatton hasn't won a 72-hole event for just shy of three years. If punters are going to smash into him, this would appear the time.
Points to note:
Strokes-gained Off-The-Tee
Back to four par-5s this week, with three of the longer holes under 570 yards. Top that with a couple of drivable par-4s and length will count a lot more this week. Over recent events, the champions have ranked 2/2/6/9/4 for tee stats.
Greens-in-regulation
Not everyone's favourite table, but a solid all-round game counts plenty here, with the majority of recent winners ranking inside the top-10.
Par-5 scoring
McIlroy recorded 9-under in his victory last year, the worst par-5 performance in his three wins (12 and 10-under before renovation). It gives him an average of 8-under over his long career here, a similar figure to that of recent winners. Hovland was 10-under in 2022, Paul Casey -13, Lucas Herbert 8-under (10-under when third last season) and Bryson 14-under the card for the longer holes, despite ranking outside the top-20 for overall driving distance. The closing par-5 is a delight for viewers as a true risk-reward hole, but they need to have taken advantage of the previous 15 chances across the four days.
Course/recent form
The combination of these two more obvious stats often leads to winners from the top end of the market. Whilst Herbert and Hao-Tong Li triumphed at three-figure prices, the latter had finished in the top five at the Nedbank the previous November and is links-positive, having finished high at Saudi Arabia and third at Jordan Spieth's Open victory in 2017. Herbert is another strong, long, wind player, but was harder to find, bringing little recent form to the table. He was seemingly out of form but continued the long list of winners with a recent-enough top-10 finish.
Both those players also did little in their first start of the season, but that's seemingly the case with recent champions, all of whom, bar McIlroy last year, needed their first outing.
Course correlation
Desert form was an easy side to take at the Creek last week and is probably more of an obvious play this time. The list of champions screams wind and links, with the likes of back-to-back winner Stephen Gallacher and Danny Willett also a winner at the Dunhill Links.
Off the obvious beat, the BMW International brings an interesting comparison. Hovland, Li, Willett, Ernie Els and Henrik Stenson have won at both events, whilst there are a host of names that have won one and also finished runner-up at one or the other, no matter at which German course the event took place.
Selections 1-4; +0.75pts
Rory McIlory 1.5 points win 7/2 (Unibet) 1st
Certain to come on from last week's outing, McIlroy looks a better bet than he was seven days ago. Bar a handful of glaring errors, the world number two would have won by three or four shots, and he now arrives at a more suitable track, with many of his most feared opponents lacking a vital look around here.
Mistakes off the peg proved a bit too much a few days ago but, despite those, he still ranked inside the top-10 for off-the-tee, following that with top figures for iron play and an overall 3rd in the tee-to-green tables.
"First week back out, you're going to expect some of those sloppy mistakes and unfortunately for me those mistakes came at the wrong time, " he said after missing out by one shot.
"I'll reflect on it and learn from today - there was still a lot of good stuff in there, but I just have to tidy up some of the edges. If I do that, I feel good going into next week." There's depth to this field, but an awful lot of negatives behind them and,in similar fashion to the week at the Creek, I'd expect McIlory to trade well below his current price over the weekend. Thorbjorn Olesen 0.75 point each-way 33/1 (Unibet 1/5 6 places) 21st There were a few eye-catchers behind the lead last weekend and, if talking about sand/links lovers, I have to give the Dane another chance after a poor Sunday. All was going swimmingly for three rounds and the 34-year-old went into the final round just three behind the brilliant Fleetwood. Ranking inside the top-20 for greens, it simply fell apart on Sunday, with the seven-time European Tour winner ranking just seventh from the bottom for the same stat. I'm not unduly concerned given Olesen's tendency to take time to hit form at the beginning of a season, his victories over the last two seasons being after eight and four starts, respectively. Previous good finishes here also came after a warm-up - 3rd in 2013 after an opener at a champions event, runner-up in Abu and top 25 Qatar, and a year later when coming on from an opening mid-field finish in Abu and third place in Qatar. Last week, Olesen needed to recover from some wayward driving and did it well, finding shots with his irons and short game. Now back on a more forgiving track, he should be getting plenty more chances to attack, as when ranking top-20 for tee-to-green in four of his last five starts of 2023. Local residents naturally do well here - highlighted with Fleetwood's victory - and whilst his top efforts in the UAE overall and victory at the Dunhill Links and in Sicily read well, his last four victories also read with fascination. Hao-Tong Li was a victim when Olesen won in Turkey, whilst Francesco Molinari, Sebastian Soderberg and Yannick Paul were runners-up in Italy, at the Belfry and in Thailand, each one playing their part last week. With a love for these conditions, the former Masters' 6th can show his progressive form back to the top 50. Thriston Lawrence 0.5 point each-way 40/1 (General, 1/5 6 places) mc It's hugely tempting to put up Jordan Smith after yet another ball-striking masterclass last weekend. Indeed, had the oddsmakers over-reacted to the South African's final round, he would be in. However, I'm not sure that they've got fully on board with the Lawrence train, despite his seven unanswered birdies on Sunday. Long spoken about as a future star to follow the Schwartzel's and Grace's of the SA tour, the back-to-back winner of the SA Amateur significantly broke his professional maiden tag at Ras Al Khaimah, before winning on the DP World Tour four times in three years. At the 2021 Joburg Open, the 27-year-old beat Zander Lombard by four strokes, the latter another that showed up well last weekend and with a host of form in the desert and on links courses. In 2022, Lawrence won both his home Open at lengthy Blair Atholl, and the European Masters, the latter of particular significance, given runner-up Matt Wallace has a bank of top five finishes in Dubai. Further down the history at Crans, the names Soderberg (beat McIlroy), Willett, Garcia and Els feature heavily, all relevant to these parts, whilst three are amongst a handful that have also won the BMW International, as Lawrence did last year. A trio of missed cuts here (though ignore 2016 when inexperienced at this level) give him the looks we need, and whilst he'll need to leave those behind, he did the same at Jumeirah, coming on from 41st in 2022 to a top-five finish at the end of last year. Tour-Tips rankings for overall play give the selection a place inside the top-10 over the last three and/or six months and he can continue a run that has seen him find strokes from tee to green in all of his last nine starts.
Ewen Ferguson 0.50 point each-way 66/1 (Skybet 1/5 6 places) mc My over-the-cliff player from 2023 who may well end up the same by the close of this season. Winner in Qatar and at Galgorm Castle, Ferguson should also have the Made In Himmerland trophy in his cabinet, beaten only by a stunning putting display after being the best player on the park. Records of that event feature Wallace (again), Thomas Pieters and David Horsey, all of whom have connections via the trio of events highlighted earlier. He's been up-and-down since, though gains from September onwards saw him finish a run of form 9/13/16/20 with a top-10 at the Tour Championship, his fifth top-20 in a row for accuracy and tee-to-green play. In old money, the 27-year-old ranked in the highest echelons for driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation, a facet he continued from the get-go of 2024. Although the concern is a lack of length off the tee, the former Scottish amateur star was once again leading the way for every aspect of finding greens. Now looking fully fit after an excusable December, Ferguson looks to improve past his admirable 28th place last year, when ranking 17th for tee-to-green in the highest of grades. Dan Bradbury 0.50 point each-way 90/1 (Unibet 1/5 6 places) mc
In less than two seasons on tour, 24-year-old Bradbury has won the Joburg Open on sponsors' invite, aced at Yas Links, finished top-10 at The Belfry and Gary Player and shot the lowest round at the Emirates for four years.
That second-round 63 on course debut saw him leap into the top 10 at halfway, improving to a place in the final trio alongside Callum Shinkwin and a certain Rory McIlroy. Since that education, Bradbury has recorded five top 10 finishes, taking advantage of his hugely impressive driving and subsequent approach play, both aspects that will come to the fore this week.
I put the former Florida State player up last week but, as with the likes of Adrian Meronk and Nicolai Hojgaard, there was little advantage for the huge hitter around Dubai Creek and he will be much more suited to the upcoming test.
Now up inside the top-150 on the OWGR from a place just inside the top 500 at this time last year, Bradbury gave enough last week to be of interest at around three figure prices, just in front of a similar type in Tom McKibbin.
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