For whatever reason, the DPWT's move to various 'swings' throughout 2024 looks to have provided a degree of stability, both with the fields and for form students.
However, it is the start of the current 'back 9' that will really test the theory, with the Irish Open and Wentworth coming up through September, both following on from the British Masters and this week's event at Crans-sur-sierre.
Moving Faldo's event to the week before the European Masters is a boon for those that enjoy both correlative and current form, demonstrated by a whole heap of historical data.
Since 1939, players have been greeted by the undulating tree-lined fairways of Crans, the sub-7000 yard track giving little to those who don't find the small greens in the right number. Rather like at The Belfry, Kenya, Valderrama and the like, irons need to be in tip-top condition and a liking of the quirky might help too.
The last three champions at Crans have all finished in the top-5 for strokes-gained-approach, with debutant and future major champion Ludvig Aberg ripping the course apart. Equally, all three finished in the top 11 for greens-in-regulation, with three of the 12 winners ranking outside the top-13 in that regard.
Last week's play at The Belfry gives us another two positives - cross-over form and current form.
Firstly, the last five winners at Crans had immediate form of a top-5 finish, with only three winners since 2010 not bringing in a top-8 from their previous outing. Of those, both Thomas Bjorn and Matt Fitzpatrick had already shown plenty around here, the former a two-time runner-up before winning in 2011 (immediately after victory at Gleneagles) and Fitz winning his first of back-to-back Swiss titles after event form of 7th and 2nd.
Just sticking with those two players sees the relationship with the British Masters. Fitz won at Woburn in 2015 whilst the Dane had a win and fourth place at the Forest of Arden, alongside 13th at The Belfry's British Masters and seventh place when that course held the Benson & Hedges International.
More? Alexander Bjork, runner-up to Aberg here last year, ran-up to Eddie Pepperrell at Walton Heath; Bernd Wiesberger (second to Rasmus Hojgaard in 2021) was second to two-time Crans champ Alexander Noren at The Grove; Crans stalwart, Miguel Angel Jimenez, who won in 2010 and has four top-5 and four further top-10 finishes here, has a record of 4th and 9th in four tries at the Warwickshire course, and Lee Westwood, the 1999 European Masters winner, has a win and runner-up at The Belfry.
There is more but that is plenty to be getting on with but it's worth mentioning the sadly-departed Andelucia Masters at Valderrama, where the likes of Fitzpatrick, Martin Kaymer and Sergio Garcia bring it all in.
Selections
The first question this week is surely, 'to Fitz or not to Fitz?'.
Those that lump on the class elements were let down badly last week, as 7/1 jolly Tyrrell Hatton let a halfway lead slip, eventually finishing 18th. There were plenty of reasons to avoid him though, namely his debut at The Belfry and 2024 DPWT form being 31st at the Dubai Desert Classic and a missed-cut at The Open.
In contrast, Matt Fitzpatrick drops down in grade after a decent, if unspectacular year on both tours, and with course form to rival any of the Bjorn's and Jimenez of the golfing world.
The 2022 US Open champion has won every year since 2020, his five victories also including the DP World Tour Championship, Andelucia Masters (from Min Woo Lee and 2019 Crans champ Soderburg), 2023 RBC Heritage from Jordan Speith, and the Alfred Dunhill Links last October. This looks like a fine chance to make it half-a-dozen.
Best of 2024 is a pair of top five finishes at The Players and Memorial and, whilst he withdrew from the Olympic tournament with a sore thumb, looks to be making his charge at the right time towards two favoured courses - Crans and Wentworth.
Prior to withdrawal, the 30-year-old had hit a joint-second-best round of the day (64) around Le Golf National, a course he hadn't ever previously got on with, even after commenting that Olympic gold was never really one of his career priorities.
A fortnight later, the headline selection recorded mid-event rounds of 65 and 68 at the first of the play-off events at TPC Southwind before finishing 28th at the BMW, not enough for him to qualify for last week's big money jamboree.
Missing the finale may be a blessing-in-disguise as he comes here fresh, chasing his third European Masters crown in eight starts. Of course, after leading into Sunday 12 months ago, this should be an attempt at his fourth, but it's all enough for me to be playing at a bigger price than last year.
Points are noted that he hasn't got that last-time-out top-10, and his irons are slightly off, but his overall profile screams that he'll contend, he hasn't anything to find after recent PGA form and I'm happy taking the 12/1 in an each-way market first three.
Ignore Matteo Manassero's four recent missed-cuts around here. Probably this column's most backed player of 2024, he was the best of last week's selections, overcoming a poor opening round to launch through the pack to finish in the payout places.
2024 has confirmed that the player of 2013 is on his way back, that win at Wentworth being his final one of four victories before a minor comeback on the Alps Tour, two wins on the Challenge Tour and, finally, an impressive victory earlier this year at Glendower, from Thriston Lawrence and Jordan Smith, a pair of tee-to-green stalwarts.
That victory started a run of seven top-20 finishes in 13 starts, including 5th at the Indian Open, 7th at the KLM/Dutch, 10th at his home Italian Open, and 15th at the Scottish Open.
No complaints about tying with the likes of Guido Migliozzi, Justin Thomas and Sam Burns at Troon, before four rounds of 69 ranked the selection in 18th at the infamous Le Golf National, host of the 2022 French Open, won by Migliozzi from 2021 Crans champion Rasmus Hojgaard, and a course featuring past winners Noren and Jimenez as well as other previous winners at the mountain track.
Matteo's iron game is in great shape, ranking outside the top-20 for approach on just one occasion from the last 12 starts, meaning he's been in the top-10 for greens-in-reg in six of his last seven and, of course, racking up those tee-to-green stats.
The Italian has been backed early-doors but anything at 30 or more deserves attention.
French golfers are flying at the moment, with the world number one amateur and wins for David Ravetto and Frederic LaCroix. Those two were missing at The Belfry but Jeong Weon Ko took on the mantle, leaving behind a host of poor form to challenge over the weekend, eventually finishing in fourth.
27-year-old Ravetto can continue the great form he is showing, following his impressive four-stroke victory at the Czech Masters with a closing fourth place in Denmark, around a track that shouldn't have suited quite so well.
Crans is a plotters course, but the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg have been able to conquer the track, so a long driver cannot be ruled out, particularly one that has positive figures across the board in his last two outings.
Ravetto led the tee-to-green and GIR stats during his victory, following up by ranking 19th in GIR in Denmark, showing a quality putting game to boot.
I had a good look at Jordan Smith, who may be returning to best form and is going to contend at a long-looking 40/1 very soon, but his short game still gives me the shivers, while Matt's younger brother, Alex, comes here in great form, but is better value in the final bet.
The midfield looks a bit of a minefield, but the in-form Ravetto is chanced at close enough to treble figures.
The final bet is a Bet365 special, involving four players to finish inside the top-30.
In a field that weakens as you go past the top 40 or so, we are asked to get Matt and Alex Fitz, and the Hojgaard twins inside the front three pages of the leaderboard, with ties thrown in for free.
We've covered Matt, Alex is here after a sixth and 12th in his last two starts and a top-five on debut last year, so it's down to the Danish brothers.
2021 winner Rasmus' long-game is in good order and his best putting efforts have been at the KLM and The Belfry, whilst Nicoai is holding onto a top-50 place on the OWGR, and will, like all of these, see this as a great opportunity to cement a claim to the 2025 Ryder Cup team.
16th at The Masters, seventh at the Olympics and 14th last week in Denmark are all plenty good enough to see him in the top echelons of the leaderboard and he would have landed a top-30 in both of his previous starts, 29th on debut, 5th last season, with only one round in total being over 68.
