Determinants of Scoring at the European Masters

This analysis is based on scores and stats from individual rounds in the last four ten European Masters: 4,575 rounds in total.

Section 1: Absolute Correlation Coefficients with Score

Key Points:

• SGTee consistently shows strong correlations: Across multiple years, SGTee exhibits a strong correlation with the Score, particularly noticeable in the earlier years. This indicates that a player's performance off the tee is consistently important in determining their overall score, which aligns with the emphasis on driving accuracy and distance in the European Masters.
• SGP (Strokes Gained Putting) has variable influence: The correlation between Score and SGP fluctuates significantly over the years. In some years, SGP is a crucial factor, whereas in others, its influence diminishes. This suggests that putting can be a deciding factor in certain tournaments or conditions, especially in European Masters events where green speeds and layouts can vary greatly.
• SGApp (Strokes Gained Approach) gains importance in later years: The correlation between Score and SGApp increases in more recent years, indicating that approach shots have become increasingly critical in determining a player's success. This trend might reflect the increasing emphasis on precision in shot-making at the European Masters.

Key Points:

• Greens In Regulation (GIR) consistently shows strong correlations: GIR has a consistently high correlation with Score across multiple years, highlighting the importance of reaching the green in regulation. This is particularly relevant in the European Masters, where course design often rewards precision in approach shots.
• Driving Accuracy has varying influence: The correlation between Driving Accuracy and Score fluctuates over the years, indicating that while it is important, its impact can change depending on course conditions and setup at the European Masters. In some years, accuracy off the tee is more crucial, possibly due to tighter fairways or more penal rough.
• Scrambling becomes more significant in recent years: The correlation between Scrambling and Score has increased in more recent years, suggesting that the ability to recover after missing the green is becoming increasingly important. This could reflect changes in course difficulty or the evolution of playing styles, particularly in the challenging conditions often presented at the European Masters.

Key Points:

• Par 4 holes have the strongest and most consistent correlation: Par 4 scores show a strong and consistent correlation with overall Score across all years. This suggests that performance on Par 4 holes is a significant determinant of success in tournaments like the European Masters, where these holes are often the most challenging.
• Par 3 correlations are generally weaker: The correlation between Par 3 scores and overall Score tends to be lower and more variable, indicating that performance on these shorter holes has less impact on the total score compared to Par 4 and Par 5 holes. This might be due to the relative ease or lower scoring variance on Par 3 holes.
• Par 5 importance fluctuates: The correlation between Par 5 scores and overall Score varies by year, which could reflect changes in course layout or playing conditions. In some years, scoring well on Par 5s is crucial, likely due to their potential as scoring opportunities, especially in the European Masters.

Section 2: Importance of Each Metric in Determining Score

Random Forest Regressor and Feature Importance

Random Forest Regressor is an ensemble learning method that constructs multiple decision trees during training and outputs the average prediction. It combines the predictions of several models to improve accuracy and robustness.

Feature importance is a technique used to interpret a machine learning model. It refers to the score that quantifies the contribution of each feature to the prediction made by the model.

In a Random Forest, the importance of a feature is computed by looking at how much the feature decreases the impurity (e.g., variance for regression tasks) across all the trees in the forest. The more a feature decreases the impurity, the more important it is considered.

The calculated importance scores for all features are then normalized to give relative importance as a percentage. This shows the relative contribution of each feature to the prediction task.

Interpreting Feature Importance

Features with high relative importance percentages have a strong impact on the model's predictions. They are crucial for accurate predictions and indicate key areas where performance matters most.

Features with low relative importance have a minimal impact on the model's predictions. While they can still contribute, they are less critical.

Section 2 - Importance of Each Metric

Key Points:

• SGApp (Strokes Gained Approach) is significantly more important: At 42.70%, SGApp has a much higher relative importance in this analysis compared to the DP World Tour average of 28.85%. This suggests that approach shots are even more critical in the European Masters than in general DP World Tour events.
• SGTee and SGATG have lower relative importance: Both SGTee (14.48%) and SGATG (13.87%) are less important in this analysis compared to their DP World Tour averages of 25.36% and 22.45%, respectively. This could indicate that driving and short game around the green play a lesser role in determining success at the European Masters.
• SGP (Strokes Gained Putting) is close to the average: The relative importance of SGP (28.95%) is slightly above the DP World Tour average of 23.33%, suggesting that putting remains a crucial factor, but not overwhelmingly so compared to the broader tour.

Key Points:

• Greens In Regulation (GIR) and PPGIR are highly important: GIR (31.39%) and PPGIR (30.50%) show the highest relative importance, consistent with their DP World Tour averages (28.39% for GIR and 30.12% for PPGIR). This reinforces the idea that precision in approach shots and putting efficiency are critical factors in the European Masters.
• Scrambling remains significant but slightly lower: With a relative importance of 23.83%, Scrambling is still important but slightly below its DP World Tour average of 26.15%. This suggests that while recovery skills are valuable, they may be less decisive at the European Masters compared to other tour events.
• Driving Accuracy has the least impact: Driving Accuracy shows the lowest relative importance at 4.32%, even lower than the DP World Tour average of 5.77%. This could indicate that accuracy off the tee is less crucial at the European Masters, potentially due to wider fairways or less penal rough.

Key Points:

• Par 4 holes are the most critical: With a relative importance of 56.75%, Par 4 holes are significantly more important than Par 3 and Par 5 holes. This aligns with the DP World Tour average of 64.77%, indicating that success on Par 4 holes is a major determinant of overall scoring in the European Masters.
• Par 3 holes are more important than the average: The relative importance of Par 3 holes in this analysis is 23.92%, notably higher than the DP World Tour average of 15.36%. This suggests that in the European Masters, performance on Par 3 holes is more influential, possibly due to the difficulty or strategic importance of these holes on this particular course.
• Par 5 holes have slightly less impact: The importance of Par 5 holes (19.34%) is slightly below the DP World Tour average of 19.87%. While still important, this indicates that Par 5 holes may offer fewer scoring opportunities relative to Par 4 holes at the European Masters.

Top 5 Ranked Players - 2024 European Masters

The table below shows the top-5 ranked players across the three different Random Forest models above.

Rankings and estimated scores for all players can be found here.