1-5; -5.00pts
Yannik Paul - 0.75 point each-way 33/1 (1/5 6 places Unibet) 30th
Sam Bairstow - 0.60 point each-way 40/1 (1/5 8 places Boyle) mc
Johannes Veerman - 0.50 point each-way 45/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365) 8th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 0.40 point each-way 66/1 (1/5 7 places Coral) mc
Freddy Schott - 0.25 point each-way 140/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365) mc
Freddy Schott - 0.50 each-way Top German Player 11/1 (1/5 3 places Bet365) mc
Yes folks, it's two weeks in a row for the DPWT!
After a very interrupted few weeks, it's good to be back with regular events, this time following the Soudal Open with a seventh trip to the European Open, held at the potentially massive Green Eagle Golf (North Course).
'Potentially' seems to be the right word as, despite its absolute length of 7800-yards-plus, organisers rarely play to the very tips, allowing an interesting set of results over the past half-dozen outings.
Defending champ Tom McKibbin is not short off the tee, but equally cannot be put in the same bracket as tied runner-up Julien Guerrier or fifth-placed Frederic Lacroix. In-between, neither of the home players Max Kieffer or Marcel Siem are in the 'bomber' bracket.
And that's been the case in most of the six events held so far at the Winsen track, creating a neither here-nor-there selection dilemma.
2018 and 2022 winners Richard McEvoy and Kalle Samooja are definitely shorter than you'd expect around such a test, 2021 champ Marcus Armitage is again so-so, but past runners-up Thomas Detry and Wil Besseling are both consistently up there with course specialist Paul Casey, who ranked 12th and 18th when he won and finished a closing 7th, the latter a weather-interrupted 54-hole event.
It's those weather conditions that may be the deciding factor this week. Should organisers wish, five of the six par-5s can be stretched to over 600-yards, taking out almost the entire field from reaching in two blows and leaving the best short-iron players to thrive. That explains an awful lot, particularly as Casey scored level, one-under and one-over for the par-4s over his three year stint here, and last year's champ recorded just 2-under for those mid-range holes, against 9-under for the monsters.
There are some excellent correlations over the years to assist. McKibben is very much a links player but does thrive on quality driver-laden tracks - 4th and 9th in Qatar, top-15 at the Dunhill Links and 12th in Singapore show enough - whilst Kieffer has form at Albatross, the near 7500-yard home of the Czech Masters, beating long-driver Gavin Green, another with multiple good finishes in Qatar.
The latter event ought to be a good guide to this week, with many of the higher-placed players noted for their strength off the tee, and course specialist Thomas Pieters very comparable to the likes of Casey in style, if not wins. However, it hasn't been a great correlation, with the German's second place and Johannes Veerman's fourthth place (from four outings) the only finishes of note.
Points to note
The lack of real correlation with the Czech venue is a surprise, so look towards more obvious if older clues. Jordan Smith beat Alexander Levy at the inaugural outing here in 2017, both winning also at Dom Pedro. Incidentally, when winning in Portugal, the Englishman gave a nod to Green, cementing the Qatar link.
Runner-up at the same venue in 2022 (behind Pieters), Matthieu Pavon's maiden victory at Club de Campo saw the Frenchman lead a top-10 containing Siem, Guerrier and Langasque, all top-10 at Green Eagle last year.
Back to Levy, winner across two tracks at the China Open and linking again with Smith's bronze medal there in 2018, just behind Otaegui and eventual champion Alexander Bjork, a big hitter with form at long, as well as tricky locations (Crans, Morocco, France) and, of course, with last year's 6th place topping off a steady and full record around here.
Top-10 here last year, Paul Waring's only victory came at the Nordea Masters, beating Kieffer into third, and his best events so far this year have been Qatar (6th) and when third in China, whilst Besseling and Armitage share form in Hainan.
The ability to play in wind looks an advantage, with plenty of form at Himmerland and Oman joining that already discussed, but this looks best left to those with an advantage off the tee, and who consistently find greens in the right number.
While Armitage and Ritthammer resorted to a quality recovery game, over the years your tee-to-green man has had the massive advantage.
Last year McKibbin ranked 6th for greens-in-regulation, Kieffer 1st and Siem 14th. Samooja was second-best in the field for the same and, in 2019, Casey was second, runner-up MacIntyre third and Matthius Schwab 10th.. Further back, McEvoy, a greens machine in the same vein as Jordan Smith, ranked in sixth place, with runner-up Blomstrand in the top three.
Selections
There was uncertainty as to how last week's Soudal Open might be a guide to this week's event, but as the rounds were completed, it was the perfect mix between bombing (Dean, Fisher, Norgaard, Bairstow, Canter, Mansell et al) and the likes of Elvira, Donald and Larrazabal. It's not a direct comparison by any means and we swap trees for water this week, but it does demonstrate the possibilities of a variety of methods this week.
Nothing surprises about the top of the market, with the likes of Jordan Smith and Rasmus Hojgaard stepping down a level after a reasonable PGA Championship. Neither pulled up trees on the leaderboard, although encouragement had to be taken from the Englishman's joint best-of-Sunday 64. Back to a track at which he has a win, 11th, 10th and 6th, it only requires a week with a behaving putter for him to compete strongly again. Sadly, we've said that so many times before, and his overall win record of just two events from six years at this level has to be considered disappointing.
Similarly, Bernd Wiesbereger looks good on the figures but continues to destroy some great tee-to-green stats with abject perfimances on the greens, whilst Laurie Canter had a similiar chance to this at the 2020 Italian Open but he was poor in contention, the first of some very similar efforts in good company. He's a huge runner but the entire lot at 30/1 and under need a more patient backer than me.
I'm not thrilled by the Dane's current play, so Yannik Paul becomes the obligatory man from the top, particularly as home players continue to put up strong showings here.
I can just about consider Paul a better player than the likes of Schneider and Ritthammer, whilst he wouldn't be that far off the likes of Kieffer or Siem. Despite that missed-cut in Belgium, he looks capable of ignoring that first run out and raising his game back at home.
Joint runner-up in India came via 11th in approaches and second for greens and he was again top-10 for greens in Japan, far worse than it should have been, having lay in the final pairing before collapsing on Sunday. In the shortened China Open, the German again ranked highly for iron play (7th), his third top-10 since Dubai and fifth top-15 in seven completed starts.
Winner in Mallorca in October 2022, his victory saw him lead a top-10 that included Waring and Armitage, with Green, Mansell (tied 11th) and Ricardo Gouveia (top-10 here last year) all close up.
Form at the Links, Scandi Mixed and Albatross link with Crans and the French Open in a bizarre concoction. Sometimes, there needs to be no understanding. That he combines a fair whack with consistent green finding is enough.
With the market understandably wanting to be with McKibbin, I'm happy to have the home player onside at what looks to be slightly better odds than first imagined.
Canter may take inspiration from the first four winners at this venue, all English, with both Smith and McEvoy racking up their maiden victory. However, unless he takes further from former non-winner Richard Bland, the best of the bunch could be improving 23-year-old Sam Bairstow.
It's just three years since winning the Brabazon Trophy and under 24 months since making the final of the Amateur Championship, but the man from Sheffield is having a stellar rookie season, looking sure to contend strongly very soon.
Bairstow has progressed significantly from a maiden win at the Scottish Challenge in August last year - "While it wasn't a links course it did have a linksy feel. I love links golf and I always seem to play well in links conditions," - starting with a top-20 at Galgorm Castle before a run of 8th in Switzerland, 23rd in Hainan and 4th at the Challenge Tour finale.
Up a level, Bairstow lay 17th at the halfway point in Joburg and 13th after three rounds at Leopard Creek.
2024 has seen improvement again, making eight out of 10 cuts, including at the last six tournaments. In four of those, the 25-year-old has found himself inside the top 10 going into payday, including in Qatar, Singapore, India and last week in Belgium.
Consistently around the top-25 for tee-to-green, he flies the ball a mile from the peg and finds a large percentage of greens, not unlike many of the players mentioned above. Indeed, seasonal stats have him in the top 50 for driving with the emphasis on distance, in the top-50 for irons and 19th for greens-in-regulation.
Given those stats include two early missed-cuts, our own six-month Tour-Tips stats tables have him ranked 4th on tour, made up of 14th for total driving, 6th in ball-striking, 1st for greens and high up in par-5 performance. It's alos of note that he's high up in par-3 performance, something Casey used to his advantage here.
A pupil of the legendary coach Pete Cowan, Bairstow is surely on the brink of a maiden win at this level and has to be confident coming in after opening with a 74 at Rinkven (136th) but coming flying through after rounds of 65, 63 and 68 rewarded with a fifth top-15 finish of the year.
Johannes Veerman rewarded each-way support in China and can do so again on a course on which he's made four from four cuts, with a best of 10th in 2022.
The American is best known for his victory at the Czech Masters, already discussed as perhaps not the best comparison in results terms, but surely of note for beating a strong driving field. Back then, he ranked 6th off-the-tee, 12th in approaches and 3rd for tee-to-green, a recipe that would see him go close here this week.
The upcoming win was certainly expected by many given his efforts in Qatar and in two British Opens, and he proved his worth for this test with a subsequent top-10 in Italy, Netherlands, here and at the higher class Desert Classic.
2023 wasn't the best but the 32-year-old returned to form this season, making nine from nine weekends, including Qatar (16th) Singapore, India (T2nd), China and in Belgium last week (bookend rounds of 68 and 66).
Accuracy off the tee has been an issue, but this looks resolved judged on his last three starts, and something we may not have to worry too much about this week whilst top-20 for approaches leads to a ranking inside the top-10 for greens and a prominent position for par-4 performance - perfect.
So good is his tee-to-green play that Veerman has ranked top-30 for greens-in-reg through his last seven starts, with top-10s in Qatar and Singapore looking suitably relevent.
Should Yannik let his home fans down, there's a very good substitute in Freddy Schott, junior golf superstar and mentored in the early days by Marcel Siem (18th and second here over the last two years), the duo playing numerous events as a team.
In his second year as pro, Schott landed five top-5 finishes, including a victory in Denmark, beating bombers Nick Bachem and Alex Knappe in a comfortable three shot victory.
2023 was a year of learning although the eye is taken by his better efforts - 10th at Himmerland, 12th at Glagorm Castle, and 14th here and at Albatross - and although this season has been a mixed bag, his three best finishes read well.
11th at Glendower came courtesy of a second-round 64 and Sunday round of 65, 16th at Singapore was let down by a third-round 76, his worst of the week by seven shots allowing him to slip out of the halfway lead, and 11th in China, when always there or thereabouts.
The selection is a massive hitter that will be another to benefit from the more forgiving fairways this week. When he gets the process right, he backs that up with top-10 greens stats, as he did at two of the recent Asian events.
Progress here is steady, his three efforts seeing him improve from a missed-cut through 51st and last year's 14th but he is well aware of where he wants to be - on the PGA Tour via the graduation link - and will surely be up for the task at a course he knows well, in the week of his 23rd birthday.
I had a good look at David Law, a corking tee-to-green merchant when on top form, and with two top-7 finishes here, and also at Guido Migliozzi, who looks to be returning to the player everyone thought he would be. However, the first is getting ever harder to read, whilst the Italian Stallion has two missed-cuts in his last pair of efforts here - not so horrendous other than they both contain rounds of over 80.
Instead, turn to one of the game's most affable characters in Kiradech Aphibarnrat.
He may be a long way from the player that finished top-15 at Augusta and at brutal Shinnecock Hills, but he has not lost the ability to play tricky tracks well, even if today's task is a league or two below his best.
Winner of a handful of good class events, efforts over the past couple of seasons include a should-have-won runner-up at the BMW International at Wentworth, 5th at the KLM, always top-10 at the Spanish Open won by Jon Rahm and 12th at the Marco Simone.
2024 has seen a touch more consistency, making eight of his last nine cuts, spoiled only by last week's 68/72, enough to miss the weekend on the number.
Previous missed-cuts have resulted in decent follow-up efforts, such as losing out on the weekend at Wentworth 2022 before top-10 in Italy, again losing out prior to top-15 at The Belfry, and again before T13 in Malaysia and T15 at the Soudal Open 2023.
13th and 23rd at Malaysia and Kenya read far better knowing he was 99th and 106th after the respective first rounds, whilst good finishes in Singapore and the Saudi Open saw him record a pair of top-three finishes that bookended 37th at the DLF (17th after three rounds).
You know what you get with the 34-year-old - boom or bust - but it woudn't have needed much more last week to have made it yet another top-30, and he's just the type to show some of these more extravagant bombers how to play the game.
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