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1-3; +4.50pts Thriston Lawrence 1 point each-way 20/1 (1/5 6 places Unibet) mc Niklas Norgaard 1 point each-way 22/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365, Skybet) 18th Jorge Campillo 0.50 points each-way 40/1 (1/5 8 places General) 37th Jeff Winther 0.50 points each-way 100/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365, Skybet) 2nd
On Sunday afternoon, Tyrrell Hatton just managed what Jon Rahm failed to do a week earlier - convert impressive past course form into yet another victory.
A 72nd hole birdie saw the 12/1 third favourite finish a shot clear of 500/1 rag Nicolas Colsaerts, reversing last week's play-off win for outsider Angel Hidalgo (250/1) in Spain, making it a ludicrous three wins in his last seven starts at the Dunhill Links, a number that could easily have been increased by at least one, having chances in both the 2018 and 2021 runnings when finishing runner-up at both.
Those form figures are tough to match anywhere on the DP World Tour and can't be seen in the field assembled for this week's 21st Open, taking place at Le Golf National for the 22nd time in a row. However, there are a good few that bring consistent top-20 course form to the table, at an event that changed seasons in 2019, moving from a slot in the height of Summer to the darker, wetter days of late September and early October.
A cursory glance at previous contenders includes the names Thomas Levet, Graemme McDowell, Tommy Fleetwood and Frani Molinari, all of whom give an indication of the type of player required around the tight fairways and small greens of the Paris track.
Our own scoring analysis shows the importance of strokes-gained-approach around LGN, with iron play ranked as the major source of scoring. Indeed, at over 43%, the factor is almost 15% higher than the average DPWT tournament. Logically, therefore, something gives, and strokes-gained-off-the-tee takes the brunt, offering almost half the importance as the average event.
As can be seen via the link, greens-in-regulation, scrambling and putting far outweigh anything done on the tee, although finding fairways will always allow better control of the ball as it lands on undulating greens.
In practice, the two winners since Lockdown have ranked in the top-14 for greens, scrambling and putting, finishing in the top five for SGApproach and SGTeetogreen, a factor also seen with August's Olympic gold medalist, Scottie Scheffler.
Recent form has had a mixed bag over the years although, again since 2020, both Guido Migliozzi and Ryo Hisatsune came in with decent enough form. The Italian had finished 13th at Wentworth a couple of weeks before winning by a shot from Rasmus Hojgaard, whilst the Japanese star also had a recent 13th at the European Masters, both events easy to link with Rasmus a winner at Crans and Alex Noren a two-time winner in the Swiss altitude and a champion at the BMW PGA at the legendary Surrey course.
Looking back, there is a raft of form linking this track with the two already mentioned as well as the KLM/Dutch Open, British Masters, Kenya and Renaissance Club, all meaning that form over the last few weeks needs a very good look.
And, of course, there are only three events left to qualify for the play-offs taking part next month. The top 70 players after here, Spain and South Korea will book their ticket to Abu Dhabi, another smaller, but significant factor to take into account as the weekend hots up.
Selections
If we get the Billy Horschel of Wentworth, there is little point in looking elsewhere. Impressive in his defeat of Rory McIlroy a couple of weeks ago, he was 20th here on his course debut, following an 18th in Surrey.
Although he missed the final round cut last week, rounds of 70, 68 and 70 meant he missed the payout by just one shot, nothing to worry about and just a blip on a record that shows an average SGA ranking of around 14th for his last six events across both sides of the pond.
He's a big worry and appeals a bit more than Rasmus Hojgaard, who comes in with a pair of top four finishes in his two outings here but may struggle to keep up if counting on his short game.
Matt Wallace looks short on two missed cuts from two course outings and may have lost his mojo since limping home at Crans, but I'm happy to grab a bit of 20/1 about Thriston Lawrence, who has blown hot and cold this year but whose best efforts read very well in context.
A four-time winner at this level, the South African boasts victories at tree-lined Joburg, Crans (beating Wallace), and at the BMW International, an event that crosses over via Martin Kaymer, Wallace (if taking Crans and Hillside as a decent-enough guide) Thorbjorn Olesen and Joost Luiten amongst others. At the two European victories, the selection recorded top-14 rankings in the metrics identified as vital for success here and he might be a couple of points longer based on such a mixed bag of recent figures.
Let's be positive here though and see his fourth place at Royal Troon as a real plus, as well as his runner-up finish at The Belfry, in front of top-10 finishers Rasmus, Matteo Manassero, Jorge Campillo and Matt Wallace, all four perfectly acceptable links here.
A third-round 74 on a tricky Saturday at Crans paused any progress from 18th place, whilst he recorded book-end rounds of 68 and 67 at Royal County Down, somewhat better than his middle efforts of 74 and 76.
Lawrence was superb at Wentworth, chip-ins contributing to two rounds of 65 over the weekend, eventually taking him into a play-off with the classier Horschel and McIlroy, who eventually just did him for nerves off the tee. That result was no real worry, and nor was last weekend's mid-table finish in an avent he's never got on well with.
Current DPWT rankings see Lawrence sandwiched between his two Wentworth rivals and with no worries about making the play-offs, expect him to shine in this easier field.
Jordan Smith has understandably been well-backed, but at a similar price I want to be with Niklas Norgaard (Muller), who I may be guilty of chasing down but with justifiable reasons.
I put up the Dane for last week's Dunhill Links and it's possibly wiser to put a link to that preview than repeat the same thing. Nevertheless, here is a player striking the ball as well as anyone on the tour, and whose recent tee-to-green rankings include leading the way at the Scottish Open, 2nd at his maiden victory at The Belfry, and 16th, 26th and 14th through the Irish Open, BMW PGA and at St. Andrews (and pals), the middle of those witnessing a final round 64.
The 32-year-old seems a relatively late bloomer but that's more due to the control he has added to his natural length, a lethal combination that sees him rank 14th for season-long greens-in-regulation and in 8th place on the rankings. While his putting is very in-and-out, he looks like a type in the mould of Colsaerts and J.B. Hansen, first and second here in 2019, although it's worth remembering his debut at The Belfry in 2023, when leading into payday.
I don't believe Norgaard is a smash-and-grab merchant and he is simply hitting it as well as any, ranking in sixth place in our rankings for the last three months. It's as short a price as I'm prepared to go, but he's been impressive and might take advantage of any rain that falls.
Jorge Campillo has been steady in his progress this season and makes the list after snippets of excellent play over the last few weeks.
The three-time winning 38-year-old is never the easiest to predict but calls himself when coming to a track requiring a bit of thought, as he did when winning and running-up in Doha, and victorious at Muthaiga and Morocco, the latter being the scene for winning efforts by 2012 French Open champ Marcel Siem and Richie Ramsay, purveyor of tree-lined tracks and winner at Crans and Hillside.
After a decent enough spell on the PGA Tour where his best efforts were in the wind, Campillo has returned with 12th at the Scandi Mixed, 26th at the Scottish Open (all rounds 68 and under), 6th at the British Masters (2nd at halfway) and most recently a closing 18th in Spain and 19th last weekend.
Form here is mixed, with a best of eighth place way back in 2018, but he seems in better form than when just outside the top-40 here last year and is a player to keep on the right side of when hitting the ball well.
A few made appeals at mid-range. Adrian Saddier, currently occupying the 70th and final qualifying spot for Abu Dhabi, needs to solidate his place, whilst Connor Syme is preferred to old stagers Paul Warting and Andy Sullivan, although all three have very obvious issues with crossing the line (might be excellent top-20/30 plays).
Instead, I'll travel down to Jeff Winther, a player with form in the right places and with impressive course efforts to boot.
Although the 36-year-old has won just one event at this level, it came in tricky conditions at the 2021 Mallorca Open, beating similar types in Campillo and Seb Soderberg, rightly fancied to go well this week.
On that occasion, Winther made his mark via rankings of 2nd for approaches and first for putting, factors that continue throughout his history in Spain, a location that has seen him finish 3rd, 4th and 6th (twice) despite some moderate driving stats.
With a CV that contains runner-up at tree-lined in Pretoria ( a great Kinks song, well covered by The Fall), 8th in the 2023 British Masters, top finishes in Qatar and a pair of top-14s at the Dunhill Links, it seems clear enough where to find him at his best.
Away from Spain, Le Golf National looks to be right up Winther's street, with results since return of 8th and last season's runner-up, all built around a solid short game that saw him twice rank in the top five for SG Putting.
It's been hard to match early-season form of at both tricky Singapore and India but he has looked on the way back since late August with 27th at his home Danish Championship, 33rd at The Belfry, a late-closing 17th at Crans (final round 65) and a top-20 at the better class BMW PGA.
Perhaps last week's cut could have been forecast, with previous event form reading mc/14/mc/10 but none of the three rounds were of any concern (69, 72, 69) but he comes here with his long game in great shape and with a bit of improvement to be found in recent putting stats, a factor he may well pick up now on these favoured grounds.
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