|
A near-miss with Andy Sullivan in Singapore last week.
The Englishman has been showing up recently without being able to kick on from good positions. However, despite throwing in a pair of double-bogeys midway through his third round and another two dropped shots at the pesky10th and 11th holes on Sunday, he harnessed a combined seven birdies thereafter, comfortably finishing in a place payout.
The tour continues the Asian Swing with a fifth visit to the DLF Golf & Country Club, current host of the Indian Open. The championship course is typical of designer Gary Player, using well-placed bunkers, rocks and water to make this a genuine test. Even a brief look at the course through the official website shows not only the difficulty, but the beauty of the track, reminiscent of Player's work at Leopard Creek and his own course used for the Nedbank Challenge.
The elite that have played both those latter tracks have emphasised the need to find fairways and to have an all-round game, and the same is true at this week's New Delhi course, particularly if the wind does get up.
Since the event moved to the DLF track in 2017, all four winners have recorded a score less than 'level-4s' (16-under total), and despite the Covid-affected cancellation from 2020 through to 2022, many of the attributes of those in contention remain the same.
SSP (now Shiv, or not) Chowrasia defied pundits by winning back-to-back across Delhi GC and the Gary Player course, before they belatedly found out that the track was not set up at a full 7600-yards. The short-hitting Indian was a multiple winner on his home tour, but his best efforts away from Asia made perfect sense - top-15 finishes at tree-lined Wentworth and Valderrama.
Of note may be his top-20 at Abu Dhabi, scene of a 7th and 16th place by Matt Wallace, play-off winner of this week's event in 2018. Indeed, defeated in that duel was Andrew Johnston, 9th in Abu Dhabi in the same year and winner at Valderrama and with three top-10s at the BMW PGA at Wentworth.
Those mentioned so far are always regarded when the wind blows, and their record is backed-up by 2019 champion Stephen Gallacher, holder of a pair of top-five finishes at Wentworth, winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links and with two victories and a runner-up at the Dubai Desert Classic.
Want more? Ok. After a four-year hiatus, the course returned to the schedule 12 months ago, with Marcel Siem defeating Yannik Paul down a tough final stretch.
That Gallacher second-place in Dubai? In fourth place was Siem, whose record shows a top-five at the Nedbank, and top-10 finishes in Abu Dhabi and Wentworth! Finally, one place back in 5th was George Coetzee, with desert form aplenty and two-from-two top-10s around this Gary Player track.
Points to note
Current form
Siem came into the event after a pair of top-20s in Singapore and Thailand, the latter seeing compatriot Paul finish runner-up behind Thorbjorn Olesen (proven form at the Links, in the desert (including at Abu) and subsequent winner at The Belfry). Gallacher had done nothing at all prior to his shock win, but runner-up Kawamura came off a top-15 in Malaysia. As a note, that event saw Scott Hend defeat Nacho Elvira in a play-off, the latter subsequently 6th here in the same year.
Matt Wallace was off a top-20 in Qatar, subsequently winning a further two events, while runner-up 'Beef' had been 12th in Oman.
With recent tournaments being won in 17-under and 26-under, perhaps moving to last month and events in Bahrain, Kenya and Qatar is a better key to this week, although anyone showing much for a top-25/30 in lower-scoring is worth considering in a weakish field.
Greens-in-regulation
Naturally an important stat whatever the event, but it seems the Gary Player unsurprisingly asks for a deliberate all-round game based on an ability to find fairways - of course, the longer you are down there....
Whilst the stats sometimes need a bit of poetic licence, of last year's eventual top 10, four places were taken up with some of the longest drivers, with six of the same names returning top-10 figures for greens-in-regulation.
In Gallacher's year (2019), the winner ranked 32nd for distance but 12th in greens. Overall, the top 10 and ties, of which there were many, contained seven of the top-15 drivers and eight of the top-10 for tee-to-green.
Interpret that as you will, but I feel that finding the short stuff off the tee will enable far more comfortable approach shots to tricky greens. Miss those, and they better have their chipping spot on.
Course form
Last year's champ had recorded 29th on debut around here before a missed-cut, whilst Yannik made his course and event debut, as had Wallace. Gallacher had previous form of 7/29 prior to his win, whilst Kawamura had missed all his cuts at Delhi and the DLF. Not much there.
Of more note is the efforts of players such as Jorge Campillo - 10th in Delhi before recent 3rd and 4th here - and Joost Luiten, 9th and 3rd around this track. Both those players fit the profile of recent winners and challengers, and have similar results in their past records.
Selections 2-3; +20.75pts
Andy Sullivan 0.75 point each-way 40/1 (1/5 6 places Unibet) wd
Adrian Otaegui 0.75 point each-way 33/1 (1/5 7 places Paddy Power) 26th Callum Shinkwin 0.50 points each-way 66/1 (1/5 6 places General) 21st Veer Ahlawat 0.25 points each-way 200/1 (1/5 6 places William Hill) 2nd Veer Ahlawat Top Indian player 0.75 points each-way 16/1 (Bet365) 1st
I'm struggling to make a great case for those at the very top of the market, a combined 11/8 or thereabouts. If pressed, Yannik Paul and Joost Luiten would head the call, but the latter isn't quite doing it at the moment and the Dutchman hasn't shown that razor-sharp iron play over the past month. It was a great effort to finish just outside the top-10 in Singapore, but it is surely only the proven course form that had him 15 points shorter than the price for Andy Sullivan earlier today.
Sure, he has shortened up after last week's effort, but his qualifications for this week's test make great reading.
Past form shows finishes of three top-six finishes and 12th (debut) at Emirates, two top-20 and two top-25 finishes at Abu Dhabi, with a best career finish of 17th at Yas Links last season, 3rd and 16th at the Gary Player, and a best of third place, alongside a pair of top-25 finishes at Wentworth.
Away from the correlation, the 36-year-old has wins at Glendower, Joburg, Portugal and Hanbury Manor, continuing decent form at the first named with a 23rd a couple of weeks ago. The Trophee Hassan, KLM Open, French Open and The Belfry all appear on Sulli's best 30-or-so career efforts and he's here, at a very suitable course, having made his fourth consecutive cut, and landing his second top-five finish in a month.
Lack of distance off the tee won't be an issue here, particularly if continuing his figures from Singapore - 10th in driving accuracy and 2nd for greens. In new money, 3rd for approaches and 16th tee-to-green.
40/1 was available this morning, which was far too big, but he looks to have a similar chance to those at around 28/1. Any bigger is worth a play.
In-form Bernd Wiesberger is very appealing on much of his tee-to-green form, but the time away seems to not have improved a shocking short game, something that continues to pull him back into the field.
Instead, at a slightly bigger price, I'll take Adrian Otaegui, whose game screams accuracy over glitz.
Of course, the Spaniard did look incredibly flashy when winning by six strokes at Valderrama in October 2022, and whilst it hasn't gone quite to plan since that win at the Andalucia Masters, the selection recorded a runner-up at Leopard Creek, top-10 when defending in Spain (though at the more unsuitable Sotogrande), and more recently 20th at Dubai Creek and 4th in Kenya.
Runner-up to the rampant Sullivan at the 2020 English Championship, he ran second to Pablo Larrazabal at the KLM (again finishing in front of Rasmus Hojgaard), and has form at the Tshwane, Qatar and French events, all relevant pointers.
Amongst those whose overall form can be ignored simply because of the change in type of course, Otaegui is probably the most obvious.
Greens-in regulation stats point to the chances of Niklas Norgaard Moller, but the 31-year-old does that all off huge driving, surely not the advantage it should have been when failing to fire at either St Francis Links and Glendower. Conversely, fellow bomber David Ravetto is in fine form, finishing off in Singapore with a bogey-free 64. I can't believe this is the right place for him, though any showing will make him tough to leave out when returning to the bigger tracks.
Instead, I'll shove in a long-hitter with a bit more finesse about him.
Callum Shinkwin can take followers on a bit of a ride, but is playing better than his recent overall finishes.
Past form takes in 4th and 11th at Emirates, 2nd and 10th at the Dunhill Links, top-10 finishes at Wentworth, the KLM and in France and a pair of top-25s at Abu. It's of note that his best effort of 2023 came when 7th at Wentworth last September, and he started 2024 in fine style with an 11th place at the Dubai Desert Classic and fourth place at Ras.
Top-30 in Qatar is the best of three efforts in February and March but he'll come here with good memories of leading after three rounds on his only attempt here in 2019. The 30-year-old is a tad more accurate off the tee than many of the bombers and, at 66/1, he's overpriced on latent talent alone.
Having to ignore the very top of the market sees a delve into the deep, but this is precisely the event for a shock or two.
Gaganjeet Bhullar is certainly not the worst three-figure price ever, winning twice last year, including at the PGTI Tour Championship. However, in seventh place and level with Patrick Reed at Bhullar's Indonesian Masters win was two-time PGTI winner Veer Ahlawat, and after a solid fifth place at the Kolkata Challenge, is worth a poke at a large price and for top home player.
I won't pretend I know him like we know, say a Jordan Smith, but there is a lot to be said for being in form without the need to acclimatise, and the 28-year-old qualifies for both assets.
2022 saw Ahlawat finish 5th at the Singapore Open (hot favourite Tom Kim in tied-second, Paul Casey 16th) before seven cuts and a victory on the Indian tour. The long-odds poke finished the season with four top-10s including runner-up at the Tour Championship , and 6th on the rankings.
2023 lacked a victory but consisted of four top-10 finishes and five further top-20s, the best of which was 6th at the (ironic?) SSP Chawrasia Invitation at the brutal Royal Calcutta Golf Club, the winning score potentially being relavent here this week, at just 6-under.
This season has been mixed after just four starts, but 13th at the Malaysian open sees him mix with the likes of John Catlin and last week's runner-up Kiradech Aphinbarnrat and, whilst the Thai was embroiled in a play-off in Singapore, Ahlawat was showing up again at Calcutta, sharing the first round lead before finishing amongst proven winners David Horsey, Alexander Levy, Kris Broberg and other, experienced operators on the main tour.
Of course, there is a reason why these names are back at Challenge Tour level, but home advantage is huge when rivals are so far away from home and, with previous host DLF being his home club and having finished 13th here last season, looks a ripe each-way bet to be top Indian by the end of the week.
|
