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1-2; -1.40pts Shane Lowry 1.5 points each-way 12/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Paddy Power) 12th
Robert MacIntyre 1 point each-way 18/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Paddy Power) 5th
Andrew Johnston 0.50 points each-way 90/1 (1/5 odds 8 places Paddy Power) mc
The final two rounds at Crans last weekend were certainly not as expected.
Far from the usual winning scores of 17 and 18-under, Matt Wallace survived a trial over the final 36 holes, calling Saturday's third round, "Brutal, really hard." Indeed, by confirming he "felt I hit the ball just as good, in the right areas - they were the wrong areas by the looks of it," he's potentially listed the problems faced by all players at this week's Irish Open.
It's understandable that, after a weekend that left him fatigued, Wallace doesn't turn up at Royal County Down, a course described by reviewers on Top 100 Golf Courses as "well worth the travel time", but also "less enjoyable than Portrush."
What isn't in doubt is either the stunning view or the task ahead. With bearded bunkers, blind shots to narrow, undulating fairways, and approaches to long, narrow greens, this is the test that us more sadistic golf punters enjoy.
Last year the Irish Open moved from a slot in the border of Spring and Summer to this Autumn schedule, mainly in order to attract a high-quality field away from the middle of the PGA season. That did it's job, but the K-Club saw a final round shoot-out between Vincent Norrman and Hurly Long, rather than the hoped-for class of McIlroy/Hatton/Lowry. And that's a course far removed from the toughness of this week's.
Links courses will always play to the weather and, while we probably won't get the brutality of the 2015 Irish Open here, when Soren Kjeldsen won with a total of 2-under after a final round 76, there is rain forecast for 'moving day' with gusts of up to and over 30mph due at various points this week.
As always, premium clues are simply based around links form. Keeping the ball in play off the tee will be crucial given the wild heather and gorse that populate the sand dunes and knowing how to accept bad bounces is key to forming a satisfactory round, or four.
Back to those reviews that mention the friendly rivalry between RCD and Portrush, host of the 2019 Open Championship and the comparisons on the respective leaderboards. Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Alex Noren, Lucas Bjerregaard and Rickie Fowler were all links-biased names that were prominent at some stage or other, the first three being former winners of the PGA Championship at Wentworth (venue in a week's time) with Hatton and Willett thriving at the Dunhill Links at St. Andrews, an event at which Noren finished runner-up in 2022. Dane Bjerregaard beat Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood there in 2018, while you can close them up even tighter by looking at Noren's victory in the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart, by a shot from Hatton, at the same course conquered by Luke Donald, top-20 here in 2015!
Selections
Deserved favorite Rory McIlory makes very little appeal despite his intimate knowledge of the course he grew up on. Naturally he is the highest-ranked player in the field but he missed the cut when hosting here nine years ago and he doesn't ping off the page as a player that will relish the wind and rain expected over the weekend. At 11/2 he has to win, and there's enough evidence to say he probably won't.
Tee times might be crucial this week, but in the case of Shane Lowry, the tougher the better.
There are few secrets with the 37-year-old winner of the 2019 Open Championship, held at Portrush in testing conditions that were somewhat similar to those faced during his win at the 2009 Irish Open, held on the East coast at County Louth. That win, before he turned pro, proved to all that the winner of the 2007 Irish Amateur was far more suited than his rivals to the wind and rain, a resolve used when victorious at Firestone, from a field full of links names, Portugal (from Ross Fisher, another proven lover of the Dunhill Links) and, significantly at the 2022 BMW PGA at Wentworth.
Lowry has added one further victory since Surrey, carrying McIlroy to a win at the team-event, New Orleans Classic, but results have been very consistent, easily keeping him inside the top 40 of the world's rankings, although both our own rankings table and Data Golf place him around 20th.
Top-20 at Augusta in 2023 has been followed by five top-20 finishes at the seven majors, highlighted by a 6th at both Valhalla and Troon this season. Add to those 3rd at Bay Hill and the K-Club, top-five at the Honda, top-12 at the Scottish open, top-15 at Riviera and top-20 at the Memorial, and there's enough there to trust he'll get through anything the skies throw at them.
Lowry has taken time to return to form after his Open effort, but he's had a week off since finishing eighth at the Tour Championship and there should really be little motivation to get it going here this week. The history is long - go back to Woburn in 2015 when tying with Kjeldsen for second-place behind Fitzpatrick at the British Masters for even more positives - and there is little against him.
I'm interested in Lowry for a 72-hole match against Rory, or as top Irish player, but he'll also do at double-figures with eight places.
As a huge Aaron Rai fan, it's tempting to be with such an improved player and one that will keep banging on the fairways. I just can't at 14s and similarly fast-improving Robert MacIntyre makes more appeal at a slightly bigger price after a stellar season.
Victories at the Canadian Open, from a field containing McIlory, Fleetwood and Lowry, and at the Scottish Open, from a world-class field, were the result of a more steady mental approach to his game rather than latent talent.
That natural ability has always been present, demonstrated by a pair of top-10 finishes at the 2016 (T6) and 2021 (T8) Open championships and an 8th at Valhalla, just a couple of weeks before the initial PGA Tour victory. None of those were a shock given previous form included running-up to Rory a year prior to his win at the Renaissance, winning at the Marco Simone in 2022 from a top-10 containing Fitzpatrick, Rory, Rai and Hatton and, in 2019, finishing second to Bernd Wiesberger (second here in 2015) at Himmerland.
The list could go on but he comes here after a 7th at the first of the FedEx play-off events and a closing 16th at a revamped East Lake, signing off with a 64 that indicated his physio had worked the magic on a back injury that caused a withdrawal at the BMW.
Another to relish the challenge of links golf, he appeals as the most likely danger to Lowry.
With two relatively short selections, there sadly isn't room for the Austrian, but it would be foolish to ignore the renaissance of Andrew Johnston.
Easily one of the most popular players on the tour, 'Beef' has had many struggles since running-up to last week's Crans champion Matt Wallace at the Indian Open, hosted by the difficult DLF course. That, plus his earlier (and only) victory at this level, at Valderrama in 2016 demonstrated his ability in trying conditions, his win coming via a score of 1-over and from a top-10 containing the names Garcia, Kjeldsen, Kaymer, Fisher and Noren.
Mental issues and injury seemed to have taken their toll as he carved a name as a podcast host but recent efforts indicate that he is approaching some peak form.
A 23rd place at the Czech Masters disguises his third place after three rounds, while he was top-25 after 54 holes in Denmark, again showing top-quarter figures for his long game. Over the last two weeks, Beef has finished his events in much stronger fashion, with a final round 69 at The Belfry to move inside the top-20, and a Sunday 66 to finish in 3rd, having been ever-present on the front page of the leaderboard.
With a CV containing three top-10 finishes at Wentworth, 4th alongside MacIntyre in Italy and 4th behind Wiesberger at the Scottish Open, it is purely a matter of fitness and being match-ready. "It's just a case of trying to put yourself in a good position come Sunday, " he told the DP tour on Sunday. "And the way we battled yesterday in the wind and sort of hung around gave us a chance today and that's all you can do." "We tried to be really aggressive, we knew we had to try and catch Matt," he confirmed. "I'm delighted with the week."
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