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Preview & Tips by Halfway House

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Live Scoring

 
Italian Open
 
 
0-4; -6.00pts
 
Ewen Ferguson  1 point each-way 33/1 (1/5 7 places Hills)  29th
Matteo Manassero 0.75 points each-way 40/1 (1/5 6 places Unibet)  10th
Adrian Otaegui 0.75 points each-way 40/1 91/5 6 places Hills)  22nd
Angel Ayora 0.50 points each-way 150/1 (6 places Unibet)  33rd

After a long history of host courses more akin to strategic planning and a linksy feel, in 2021 the tour moved the Italian Open to the Marco Simone GC.

The Rome track was undoubtedly more modern in design, offering benefits to the risk-reward player and which, of course, would become home to the 16.5-11.5 tonking the home side gave to the US team in the latest Ryder Cup, held last September.

That's been and gone now, and it's left punters with a real quandary, the event now moving to the Adriatic Golf Club in Cervia, never used before for this or any other event in this class.

Reviews suggest the course is a hybrid of two of the three quite different 9-holers available on the site, using the parkland 'red' and links-based 'yellow' on this occasion. With the official website declaring it at just under 7000 yards, the par-70 offers up just two par-5s alongside the traditional four par-3s, looking like a second-shot dream.  

With 12 'regulation' holes, of them five under 400 yards, the course doesn't look particularly threatening to players of this calibre, with the main dangers looking to be the trees of the parkland nine, perhaps affected somehow by any wind off the Adriatic Sea, just a few hundred metres East. That said, most reviews comment that the breeze is a welcome respite from any scorching Summer temperatures. That breeze may be nothing like that found on Scottish links but there are enough clues in past winners to think it isn't irrelevant.

Since the inaugural event in 1925, 10 players have won the title on more than one occasion, but nine of those have repeated their victories at different tracks.

Only Flory Van Donck (nope, me neither) found multiple wins at Villa D'Este, but alongside the names Molinari (Franni), Otto, Gonzo, Poulter, Langer, Torrance and Lyle, found that any of the annual hosts were to his liking, with none of the latter and better-known players winning twice on the same track.

Much of the names prior to 2021 shout links-positive, again backed up by the mighty Van Donck, who racked up nine top-10 finishes at The Open between 1948 and 1959, and, while Marco Simone offered a longer, tougher test, with winners recording 14-under and 13-under (twice), I suspect we will see the return to the more flamboyant scores of previous years - around 20-under.

Points to note 

It's very tough to get a grip on a new track although Italian form in general will be a pointer, I'm looking at the likes of Kenya, Qatar, Wentworth, Belfry, Celtic Manor and the like. All those courses link in with a more careful yet scorable approach, often affected by unpredictable wind.

Olesen, Fitzpatrick, Gonzo and Poulter are obvious names that cross over from the many tree-lined tracks of the British Masters, and 1993 Italian Open champion Greg Turner gives more credence to the link, winning his final European Tour event four years later at the Forest of Arden, beating two-time Italian runner-up Colin Montgomerie by a shot.

Given the opportunities presented by the short par-4s, most players will have a short iron into the green - strokes-gained-approach is a vital one here - and if combining that with a better than field-average putting display, Bob is indeed your zio.

Selections

Last week's KLM could well hold the key to this week's puzzle. 

While there is little point in harping on about the past, it wasn't that long ago that there were major correlations with all of the events held on mainland Europe, with the German, French and Dutch providing major clues. 

The move to The International last week provided us with a sub-7000-yard par-71, with three par-4s of under 400 yards and one further listed as 406. By the end of the event, these holes ranked 9th, 12th, 14th and 16th hardest and it's likely the equally short holes this week will play a similar part. and certainly give the feel of many of those British courses listed above, let alone those sited in close neighbouring countries.

Patrick Reed is an obvious favorite on his best form and may still be a steal at around 14/1. That price was available about the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard and Jordan Smith for long periods and the former Masters champion certainly doesn't deserve to drop down to that level.

That said, the American has not won since the Farmers in 2021 and we have no idea of his desire to get in the mix here on a sponsor's invitation. 

Last week's main selection Bernd Wiesberger is knocking on the door and should suit conditions, but this may be too fiddly a task for Tom McKibbin, who would have been a play at the former venue.

As Guido Migliozzi cheered up much of the Twitterati on Sunday with a true fighting display, one small corner of East London grimaced.

As he started his move on Saturday afternoon, he went straight into the books as this week's one-and-done, or at least a bet worthy of more than the standard stakes. Wins in France and Kenya are backed up by a runner-up in Qatar, 6th at Valderrama and 13th at Wentworth. In form and not long after a field-leading ranking for approaches, it's a damned shame he didn't finish 8th!

As it is, his record at his home event is not great, so I'll pass at around 22/1 and get with a couple of players that have also caught the eye recently.

After ranking as one of the best Scottish amateurs, Ewen Ferguson took a few years to establish himself but made a huge impression at Muthaiga in 2022, going four shots clear into Sunday. Whilst that didn't work out, it didn't take long for him to learn from that, fighting it out in tough conditions in Qatar, winning in a brawler's score of 7-under.

Three months later, he was back, finishing 12th at Celtic Manor, having been inside the top eight for the first three days, a week before his win at Galgorm Castle. Undone by a ridiculous putting display by Oliver Wilson in Denmark, that runner-up finish preceeded a season-ending pair of top-10s at the Mallorca Open and Nedbank, all courses being someway relevant to this week's task.

The selection failed to win in 2023, but consecutive top-4 finishes at St. Francis Links and Steyn City read well, alongside first page rankings at the KLM, British Masters, French Open and DP World Tour Championship. 

Again, he is winless so far in 2024 but is trending in the right direction, if you can just look past the final numbers.

11th in Dubai and 23rd at Ras precede the strikingly important top-10s in Qatar and Kenya, the final three being the start of a run of 10 cuts, spoiled only by the mysterious withdrawal after day one in Germany. 

In Singapore, at the end of March, Ferguson lay inside the top-10 until dropping to 11th late on, whilst poor fourth rounds in India and Japan were to blame for lower finishing positions than his play deserved. Again, last weekend's final round (75) saw the selection drop from 9th to 27th, hardly rewarding for ranking 9th in approaches and 16th for tee-to-green. 

Finishing in the top-10 for iron play is not a novelty, with five further tournaments this year showing his quality (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 9th). The shorter track will suit, as will the nature of both courses, and this looks a great opportunity for Ferguson to contend strongly, this time hopefully for the full 72.

You don't win at Valderrama by six shots without liking a tight, tricky track, and Adrian Otaegui should be another to relish the new task at the Adriatic.

The 31-year-old has five wins in the bag at this level, following a couple of match-play type events with a four-shot victory over Matt Wallace at Fairmont St. Andrews and that course record romp at Valderrama. Very consistent, the Spaniard needs the right type of course to show his best, as he did when winning in China a couple of months ago, beating last week's KLM hero Migliozzi by a stroke.

That win again saw him rank in the top echelons for accuracy off the tee, a table he comfortably leads for the season. Top that with a season rank of 18th for tee-to-green, 5th around-the-green and 17th for scrambling and we basically bet on his putting when he arrives at this type of test.

The Spaniard is rarely a superstar with the flat stick but it may only require him to be better than field average to contend, particularly back in confident mode after a top-10 at The International, his only negative being distance off the peg, nothing I'm at all worried about this week.

Okay, I've got to go with him.

Surely inspired by his compatriots success just a few days ago, Matteo Manassero may be the one for top- Italian bets this week, that without his terrific chance of winning for the second time this year.

Much of the 31-year-old's history is well documented, as it has been on the few times this column has been on already this year. Nevertheless, one week after his third top-10 of 2024, he looks primed to continue a stunning record in his homeland - two wins, a pair of runner-up finishes, third and two further top-10 finishes. 

The final Italian victory came via a three-shot margin on the Challenge Tour in 2023, his second victory that year and assuring him of DPWT status. 

Despite not landing the vital win for this column, he's hardly been a disaster and, following his victory at Steyn City (second round 61) has made four cuts from seven starts, crucially finishing 5th, 23rd, 13th and,last week, 7th. 

When Matteo makes cuts, he makes them well and comes here off a ball-striking display to rival those he recorded during all those completed events.

6th off-the-tee, 12th in approaches led to a tee-to-green ranking of 2, the same rating he achieved at both South African events and similar to that achieved in India and China.

It's a long time ago, but a win and 11th at the BMW PGA is bang-on, whilst victories in Malaysia, and top finishes in Crans and Morocco see him compete regularly at shorter, trickier courses. 

Although without that eye-catching form at the suggested correlative tracks, there is plenty in Matteo's game to suggest he is the bet just ahead of the likes of Johannes Veerman and Matt Jordan, a very likely type but who is now driving fans to the end.

In a light betting heat that should be worth looking at in-running, the final selection is ultra-promising 19-year-old Angel Ayora, looking to follow in several Spaniards as winner of this event.

We've seen it before and there are enough flops to rival the successes of a Manassero or the Hojgaard twins, but after an impressive start to his professional career, we need to be on at triple figures before the freefall.

Just 16 months ago, Ayora won the Portugal Amateur by five shots, commenting that he “played very well and solidly, managing to keep the ball low against the wind we faced this week. The truth is that I didn’t let myself be affected by anything and I left with an excellent result”.

That victory, just a few months after finishing 55th in Otaegui's Spanish romp (alongside the likes of Meronk, Campillo and Veerman) saw him raise a level, taking his time but finishing his five events of 2023 with a 21st at the Australian Open where he hit the best round of the final day (65) and 33rd in Mauritius, behind Louis Oosthuizen and in front of a handful of fully experienced DPWT players.

The promise has continued through, winning the first stage of Q-School, finishing in third at the second stage, and just missing out for the last two rounds of the gruelling six-round finale. 2024 has seen him improve again.

In 11 starts, the selection has made nine cuts, lying in the top five for three rounds at St. Francis Links, before running up finishes of 13th, 15th, 9th, 31st, 9th and 11th on the Challenge Tour. Currently lying 32nd in the Challenge Tour rankings table - Road to Mallorca - he may not need to worry if continuing last week's effort in Amsterdam.

Ranking 8th for approach, 19th for tee-to-green and positive for the short game, an overall finish of 21st saw him prove far more consistent than Matt Wallace and Sean Crocker, and again finishing in front of a number of better-known names.

It's a punt at the price but for good reason. The kid is going somewhere. It's just getting the timing right.