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Preview & Tips by Halfway House

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Live Scoring

 
KLM Open
 
 

0-3; -6.00pts

Bernd Wiesberger 1.25 points each-way 20/1 (1/5 6 places Sporting/SpreadEx)  7th

Niklas Norgaard 1 point each-way 35/1 (1/5 6 places Sporting/SpreadEx)  67th

Callum Shinkwin 0.75 points each-way 90/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365)  38th

 

  

From one of the toughest events on the calendar to a well-worn mid-tier European event. 

While the path from Pinehurst No. 2 may not lead directly to the KLM/Dutch Open, there may be more than a few hints that see the two very different courses clash in a dimension somewhere, somehow. 

When discussing course correlations for last week’s US Open, away from the more obvious Southern Hills, Plantation and the like, there was a welcome if surprising appearance by the Old Course at St. Andrews. 

In 2014, Dunhill Links specialist Martin Kaymer also carried his Open form (7/12) to victory for his second major, beating links-positives Rickie Fowler, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson. Tied-fourth alongside the latter two names was Brooks Koepka, with three top-10 finishes at the pro-am and a top-10 in the Open, Henrik Stenson, owner of a collection of top-10 finishes around the wide expanses of the classic track, and Adam Scott, with four top-15s in Fife. 

Get more recent and halfway at Pinhurst, the comparison wasn't let down by the likes of Bryson Dechambeau and Patrick Cantlay, both top-10 in the chase for the Claret Jug in 2022, with Xander (15th) and Corey Conners (top-30) also backing it up. That’s without Deki’s top-20 in 2015 and, of course, without mentioning Rory’s ridiculous record at the Home of Golf. 

Whether or not the eventual result was a perfect representation of the final day's play, Tony Finau's final day 67 launched him into a share of third place, meaning his pair of Dunhill Links top-10s and closing 28th at the 100th Open gave even more evidence to the link.

Roll on 2029!

Right, ok, but this is Amsterdam. In fact, it’s suburbian Amsterdam, on a course built on wasteland and almost smack bang in the middle of a group of motorways. 

The International has been used on just one occasion in the 103-year history of this event, hosting the centenary event in 2019. 

Back then, St. Andrews 5th and 6th, Sergio Garcia, defeated then new-boy-on-the-block Nicolai Hojgaard (14th at the Links), Matt Wallace (6/15), James Morrison (2 x top-20), 20th at the Open) and Callum Shinkwin (runner-up and 10th). Just behind the doyens of links, Joakim Lagergren, Bradley Dredge and Matt Southgate all finished inside the top-10 and tied. 

Inland it may be, but this week's course is described as flat wasteland with man-made dunes, rolling fairways, large bunkering and difficult greens. Take the initial correlation alongside the obvious form in the desert, but also a nod to being very accurate with the iron play. 

St. Andrews requires players to hit the right part of the green to avoid rolling away from their target so perhaps the fact that Garcia and Morrison have done very well at Valderrama isn’t too much of an off-putting sideline. 

Rarely is it a surprise, but tee-to-green was an overriding factor through the top of the 2019 leaderboard with Padraig Harrington ranking 7th in that regard (just in case anyone wanted even more links numbers).  

However, the key is how they get there, with Garcia, Morrisson, Karlberg, Lagergren and Dredge all ranking slightly higher for approaches over their tee game. Looking further, distance spoke more than accuracy, something again demonstrated by many of the courses above. 

To those already mentioned add the likes of Himmerland, but particularly Abu Dhabi, both initial host and Yas Links, a great pointer via three-time winner Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, and the last two winners of the KLM (at Bernardus) Victor Perez and Pablo Larrazabal. 

Event form seems to matter far more than course, with much of the rota possessing similar characteristics. 

Shock winner in 2021, the injury-prone Kristoffer Broberg and runner-up Matti Schmid finished top-10 at the subsequent Dunhill Links, whilst a year later the front two of Perez and Ryan Fox both proved their worth at the same event, the Frenchman winning in 2019 and the Kiwi subsequently going on to finish 1st/2nd over the last two runnings. 

That link may be lost slightly with the Spanish one-two from last season but just in behind, the ‘other’ Hojgaard (Rasmus), Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Adrian Meronk have all gone to produce enough form at St. Andrews for it to count. 

As with links, the weather will play a part but this isn't the exposed West of Scotland, so enjoy the driving, pick your spot on the green, hit the short stuff and away you go...


Selections

With Tom McKibbin coming off a tough but relatively successful four days in North Carolina, even his undoubted promise is overlooked, whilst I've yet to be convinced that Rasmus Hojgaard is anywhere near his best despite a reasonably promising top-20 at the Scandi Mixed.

Class-dropper Matt Wallace aims to repeat his excellent third place in 2019 and, with memories of a 67/63/68 through the final three rounds, and coming off four successive cuts on the PGA Tour, has to be the danger to anyone going into the weekend. 

I'm not quite tempted enough by his current price, but will be looking carefully of the 72-matchups against the two that rival the top spot.

Instead the main from the top is going to Bernd Wiesberger, for whom this is yet another chance and, on current form, is surely trending to the day he falls over the line.

Whilst he tends to be a tad shorter than most of his main rivals off the tee, the Austrian ranks in the top-5 for par-5 performance over the past three months, and 15th for the season thus far. On a sub-7000 yard track, that supposed lack of length may not matter given the main selection leads the tour in tee-to-green stats for the year, ranking 2nd for greens-in-regulation for the season (5th over three months). 

The eight-time European Tour winner shows no sign of letting his tee-to-green game decrease in quality, leading the way at Green Eagle a week after ranking 2nd in Belgium, the peak of six outings in the top-10 from eight starts. usually you might expect a relatively poor short game to have been the reason for lack of success but Wiesberger has been showing excellent scrambling skills (2nd for scrambling over three months) and it's surely a matter of those pesky 8-footers dropping.

At 38 years-of-age, the Austrian can relate to the likes of Garcia and defending champion Larrazabal, both of whom won this event well past their mid-30s, and his two wins in Himmerland plus four top-14 finishes at St. Andrews speak volumes for his chance.

32-year-old Niklas Norgaard Moller might well enjoy this test as he did when never leaving thje top four places at the Soudal Open and at the much longer European Open, eventually finishing runner-up and in fourth place.

A stalwart in the Danish amateur side, he won the Nordic Golf League in the same year this venue held this event, his victory coming at Himmerland, two years before Wiesberger won at the same venue oin the main tour and his progress since has been quietly eye-catching.

Rookie season 2022 saw the Dane rack up three top-10 finishes, at the huge Green Eagle, Scandi Mixed and the Dunhill Links and whilst last year was a mixed bag, top-15 finishes at the longer events in Thailand and at Albatross read well, as does the ability to get round The Belfry and rack up the best finish of the year in 7th.

Norgaard plays an awful lot of golf - 28 events in each of the last two seasons - but he's keeping it going again through '24 thus far, steadily working his way into form at the start of the year - T63, T34 and then T8 in Bahrain - and, more recently after a break T35 in China and the pair of top-five finishe smentioned above.

The Dane ranks 5th for driving distance, 2nd off the tee, 12th for tee-to-green, anfd around 30th for both greens-in-regulation and par-5 performance. 

 

Afetr finishing 31st and then 21st around Bernardus, this looks right up his street with bettors safe with the security of Dunhill Links form - 7th on debut before rounds of 68 and 63 sandwiched a second-round 76 in appalling conditions.

Dan Bradbury was tempting on his best work, whilst Johannes Veerman is surely better than that missed-cut in Sweden. However, the final outright wager comes via links stalwart Callum Shinkwin, for whom any semblence of form will see him right there under preferct conditions.

On form from just 18 months ago, any triple-figures would look huge when chatting about the Moor Park star, but things haven't gone as well as planned.

 

Back then, the 31-year-old gagged up at the Ryder Cup course on Celtic Manor, thrashing his field by four and seven strokes before running-up at the Dunhill Links to Ryan Fox, beating course specialist McIlroy and Hatton by a shot and more.

However, despite a pair of top-10s early in 2023, only a 7th at Wentworth prevented the second half of the season being a complete wash-out, the former English Amateur winner failing to break the top-40 in five subsequent starts.

In truth, this season hasn't been a party either, but there are signs.

 

11th at the Dubai Desert Classic and 4th at Ras read well, particuarly for both tee and approaches and whilst he's missed four of the subsequent six starts, top-30 finishes in Qatar and India are encouraging enouigh to think he's a play when the price is right.

A huge talent, Shinkwin boasts four successive cuts at the Dunhill Links since 2019, the best two finishes being runner-up and 10th, on both ovccassions coming through the field as the event closed on the Old Course. 

After disputing the lead for over 62 holes on his event debut here in 2019, he will have no fear of the realtively unused course, and with a plethora of links skills, can show that anything over 80/1 is too big.