After five weeks in the Middle East and a one week break, the new DPWT International Swing recommences with a trip to the Magical Kenya Open.
Host for much of the tournaments' long existence, Muthaiga then shared duties with the nearby Karen Country Club from 2005 until taking over duties a couple of years ago. At 7200 yards, the course isn't particularly long, but punters can take a few years off this par-71, given the course sits around 1700m above sea-level.
Muthaiga is a narrow, tree-lined course with some water hazards and small greens, somewhat a world away from what we have seen so far on tour. With bombers negated by the nature of the track, current form is usually not a great indicator of success here, more a type of player and skill-set.
Points to note:
Significance of schedule:
It may be worth noting the better 'short hitting' players from Qatar a couple of weeks ago. Although not a direct comparison in form, it's hard to ignore the fact that defending champion Jorge Campillo is a past winner at Education City, two-time runner-up at Doha and most recently finished 5th just a couple of weeks ago.
Whilst Ashun Wu won the 2022 running of the Kenya Open, he needed the help of Ewen Ferguson and a final-round collapse. The Scot held a four-stroke lead going into Sunday, his inexperience telling around a course that punishes the slightest of errors, something he learned from quickly enough to win the Qatar Masters just three events further down the line.
Course comparisons:
Runner-up to Campillo, Masahiro Kawamura may not follow those Qatari figures, but his top efforts involve Malaysia and Wentworth, the showcase of the DPWT being the scene of a couple of (2017 Muthaiga winner) Aaron Rai's best efforts.
Rai is a typical example of the type that thrives here, being a solid fairways and greens man and giving little away with his short game. Although across a number of courses, it was interesting to note his victory at the Scottish Open, an event that features in Ferguson's CV, as well as former Kenya champions Lorenzo Gagli and Robert Dinwiddie,
When talking of altitude, Crans-Sur-Sierre has to come into play, and Wu, Dinwiddie and Gagli all have top 10 finishes at the Swiss venue, the latter running-up to Sebastian Soderberg at the 2019 European Masters, three years after the Swede had won this event at Karen.
2012 victor, Seve Benson, named after the legend that won at both Muthaiga and Crans (twice) brings in form at Morocco and St, Omer, the former venue being in the trophy cabinet of Campillo and on the CV of 2012 Crans champion Richie Ramsay.
Fairways and greens:
Players are unlikely to beat up this course.
If the above isn't convincing enough, look for players that can plot their way around here, using form at any of the courses mentioned, plus the likes of Valderrama. Two of the top 10 on last year's final board finished in the top 20 for off-the-tee, but five players finished in the top-20 for approaches and six players ranked inside the top-10 for tee-to-green.
Figures from the first year of strokes-gained (2022) may need taking with a pinch of salt, but again it was the iron play that allowed the path up the board, the eventual victor ranking outside of the top 60 from the peg.
Selections:
There is an awful lot to like about Masihiro Kawamura this week and he can be the third Japanese winner on tour since September last year, and hot on the heels of Hideki Matsuyama, winner at Riviera over the weekend.
Never going to be too competitive on the 7500+ yard tracks, he caught the eye in 2019 when splitting Stephen Gallacher and Campillo at the Indian Open, following that with a T6 in Morocco. A year later, the 30-year-old finished inside the top-10 at a brutal Valderrama before two further top five finishes, including splitting Robert McIntyre and Campillo in Cyprus. 12th at Joburg, 9th at Crans and top-20 at Wentworth highlight 2022, and while last season was full of missed weekends, the selection recorded T18/2 back-to-back through India and Kenya, and a top-10 at the European Masters.
Overall, it's hard to note the three top-20s in four outings at the Surrey track, back-to-back top-10 finishes in Switzerland, and his two efforts here, on both occasions recording top-15 rankings for the short stick.
This season, Kawamura has recorded his best ever efforts at the Dubai Desert Classic and last week in Qatar, both of which would not have played to his strengths. Now back to a track on which he won't have to stretch his long game, the selection can continue his positive course numbers for driving accuracy, around-the-green and putting.
Whilst I tweeted the bet this morning (when around 45-50 with eight places) he remains a wager at anything over 40/1, even if giving a place away.
The claims of the top four are obvious enough, but at around 4/1 coupled, I'm happy enough to look further down the board. A win for Ferguson would hurt the mind, but he's too similar to Rasmus Hojgaard, warm favourite over recent weeks, both having let supporters down more than once when in contention.
In an event where the bottom third looks extremely weak, there is plenty of meat around the 35-66 mark, and a further pair make the plan.
Had it not been for mid-event illness, three-time European Tour winner John Catlin would be looking at four top-10 finishes in a row.
A maiden victory over Martin Kaymer in the most brutal of Valderrama conditions saw the four-time Asian Tour winner launch his name into the headlines, whilst an Irish Open win over Aaron Rai has enough behind it to substantiate his claims here, even more so as Ferguson went on to win the Handa at the same track. Furthermore, anyone witnessing his grinding play-off win in Austria knows this week's challenge is right up the Californian's alley.
Things haven't gone too well since, dropping outside the world's top-100 before freefalling to a mark closer to 500, but it hasn't all been doom-and-gloom.
Amidst the missed weekends, Catlin has a handful of highlights, most notably finishing between the names Lawrence (this week's jolly), Campillo, Olesen and Lowry in Ireland, and 11th at Valders, behind
a rampant Adrian Otaegui and just behind Rasmus, Lawrence and MacIntyre.
For the most part, 2023 was the same, but he pulled out back-to-back top-15 finishes, including here behind Campillo and Kawamura. Following a further dip, Catlin finished the year strongly, rounding off a pair of top-30-ish finishes in Australia with consecutive top-10s in Thailand and Mauritius.
Seemingly fit again, and with his golf again on the up, he withdrew from the Boonchu Ruangkit Championship when in a challenging position at halfway, before confirming his well-being with a bronze medal in Malaysia.
Catlin is another Rai-type that can be expected to keep hitting fairways and greens, ranking top-25 for greens-hit since Australia. We've seen his short game prowess over the past few years and it won't take much for him to put it all together. Now looking more confident with the short game, he could easily improve past his course debut 16th. Of note also should be his first-round leader pricing, that opening 64 her last year backed up with recent opening rounds of 67,69,69,65 (2nd round) and last week's pair of opening 65s.
I've got little choice but to side with Guido Migliozzi this week, even if the price is being cut by the minute.
There wouldn't be many that had the 27-year-old as ranking outside the world top-200 after his third win in three years at the 2022 French Open. That victory, from Rasmus, Donaldson, Smith, MacIntyre and Otaegui is bang on the money for this week's course, while it's hard to ask for more than winning at Karen in 2019 from the subsequent 2020 champion Justin Harding, who should have won back-to-back events in that strange year.
Snippets over the last year see the swash-buckler finish 13th at Crans for his second top-10 in three years and 16th at the K-Club, enough to get fans anticipating a return to form. They've had to wait till this year, though, running 13th and 25th in Dubai, the better finish at the tighter track, whilst showing enough in the numbers to overlook eventual places at Ras and Qatar.
25th, 11th and 6th for greens-in-reg already this year, there is the chance he will either take off or bomb out. Given the volatility, 35/1 is as short as I'd go, so whilst there is a bit of better, I'm in.
Nacho Elvira may well be the Spaniard to follow-up on Campillo's victory here last year, with some decent comparisons between the two.
The 37-year-old may have only won once at this level, but that play-off victory over Harding (Kawamura in fifth) reads as well as any, whilst his losses in three deciders come in Morocco, Maybank and Himmerland, all with relevance to the strongest of challengers at Muthaiga.
Now looking for his 10th cut from 11 starts, Elvira is probably running through some of his most consistent form, his third place in last November's Qatar Masters backed up with last week's 13th at the same venue, while 28th at Dubai Creek and 16th at Ras see him a very valid candidate now dropped a level.
With his last six starts at Crans giving up a pair each of top-10s and top-20s, I'm certainly not fussed by his '23 missed-cut, having recorded a first round 63, whilst his overall 'best 12' includes tournaments such as Maybank, Trophee Hassan, Himmerland, Crans and Qatar. .
The selection looks in far better shape than when coming here last year off four successive cuts, yet he managed to lead the field to halfway. Tee-to-green reads well enough, finding plus figures in his last four recorded starts, whilst scrambling and around-the-green stats suggest he'll tidy up more times than not.
I looked closely at Daan Huizing, hitting the ball well and with form at the right places, but he's left out at the price.
At similar odds, 2022 champion Ashun Wu is taken to be another player repeating his form at the same track.
Nothing is hidden with the 38-year-old, so it's always nice to be able to get a midfield price about a proven winner, in form and at a gaff he enjoys.
Wu's victory at The Dutch looks excellent form, given course winners Joost Luiten and Romain Wattel both have form in the right places, his Lyoness win back in 2016 came via a shot victory over Otaegui, he was 10th in that defence amongst relevant competition and his pair of Crans top-10s sits nicely amongst form in Asia and Qatar.
Getting more with recent form, the selection ranked top-25 off the tee at both Bahrain and Qatar, 4th and 3rd for greens respectively and midfield for putting, all of which should see him bang there at a course on which he thrashed his field when beating Lawrence and pals by four shots and more two years ago.
In amongst the likes of Matt Jordan and Wilco Nienaber, both too hard to win with, he stands out.
If Thomas Aiken's figures are to believed, he is striking the ball as well as anyone in the field.
The South African has led the field in driving accuracy on three of his last six starts, and been in the top echelons for iron play and greens-in-regulation. He has to put that together in spades in order to add to his three wins in the mid-2010s, but there is enough promise in a pre-break 7th in Mauritius and a 12th in Cape Town to think he might know a bit too much for the majority of the field and nab a place on the front page.
Back in the day, the now 40-year-old won the tricky, wind-affected, Spanish Open, Avantha Masters (Campillo runner-up) and Africa Open, won by many of the elite South African players. These days, it would be hard to think he is that player, but he still appreciates tricky greens as demonstrated by his clubhouse lead halfway at Doha.
Last time out, the Di-Data would have been too long for him, dominated by bombers, and it takes a just a glance back to the end of October when finishing15th in Qatar and 17th, in a similar field to this week's, at the Joburg Open.
