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1-2; -5.27pts Corey Conners 1.5 points each-way @ 12/1 (1/5 6 places Skybet) 6th Adrian Otaegui 0.75 points each-way @ 60/1 (1/5 8 places Skybet) 24th Daniel Hillier @ 0.75 points each-way @ 70/1 (1/5 8 places Ladbrokes) 24th Previously known as the Million Dollar Challenge (who knows what that is worth today?) the Gary Player Country Club hosts the 41st running of its invitational event, progressing from an initial 12 man field to the modern day 70 or thereabouts. Given the conditions of entry, it is no surprise to read the catalogue of top class champions, ranging from Seve to Faldo, from Sergio to Westwood, through Bjorn and Els and all those in-between. The event started as a celebration of class, then for many years as the chance for players on the cusp of the DP World top-50 to confirm their place at the seasonal decider. Re-organisation has moved it to now being the third of five events of the Opening Swing, comprising the two recent Australian events, the Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek and the Mauritius Open. After 41 runnings, we are pretty savvy as to the requirements for this 7800-yard track, with the fairways a touch more penal than we are used to seeing for what first appears to be a bomber's paradise. Altitude will take the length down a fraction, whilst approach shots take a vital role in assuring players don't need too much pressure on their short game. With the forecast looking very positive, finding the slick greens in the right number will help as much this week as it has done over the past few years. Strokes-gained stats are available for just the 2019 running onwards but tell a tale, with course specialist Tommy Fleetwood twice ranking in the top seven places for approach, and first and second for tee-to-green. Last season's event may well have fallen to an course/event debutant in Max Homa, but whilst he ranked 11th off-the-tee, his primary asset was a stunning approach game (3rd), leading to top three status for tee-to-green. As an aside, Rasmus Hojgaard led the approach and tee-to-green stats, finishing in sixth place thanks to a -1.5 (63rd) figure with the short stick. Stats over a longer period resort to the old-fashioned figures where, apart from Branden Grace in 2017, every one of the last eight champions has ranked in the top-8 for greens-in-regulation (seven of them in the top-4). Again, Rasmus ranked in second place in that regard, behind Aaron Rai, both of whom failed on the greens. In terms of bombing it off the peg, last year only five of the final top-10 (and ties) finished within the top-25 for driving distance, giving further belief to the second shot theory. Concentrating on results since 2016 when the event moved to being open to more than 30 players, Grace, Westwood and Fleetwood proved that event form ruled the roost, but 2023 may have possibly changed that. Defending champ Max Homa justified his OWGR top-10 ranking by sauntering home on his first look here, whilst fellow debutant Justin Thomas was in the midst of a revival when flying through on the final day to finish in fourth place. Course experience can certainly do no harm, but bad players don't win here and class always seems to prove it. The four players that have shared the most recent four trophies have also come into the event in decent form, every one listing a win or top-six finish in their previous six outings, with Fleetwood (twice), Grace and even Marc Leishman (in 2015) having top 6 finishes at The Open in the same year. Homa also arrived in peak shape, off a run of six top-13 finishes that included T12 at the Scottish Open, top-10 at the Open and 6/5/13 at the three FedEx play-off events. Selections This year's event once again looks strong, with Homa joined by fellow PGA stalwarts Corey Conners and Mackenzie Hughes, as well as home stars Christian Bezhuidenhout and Erik Van Rooyen, all very well known for their ability to produce stunning iron play. (Here lies the remnants of several paragraphs on why Fleetwood is the one-and-done bet-to-nothing.) With no Fleetwood in the field, and a couple of likely candidates taking part of the Hero World Challenge, Homa leads the way in terms of official ranking, at #35, with Conners and Lawrence making it three in the OWGR top-50. It's not the most inspiring of cards, but we can probably rule out at least half the field in terms of winning potential, and that increases interest. 34-year-old defending champion, Homa, went off at single figures last year and I was amazed to see double-figure prices around for the clear class of the event, and one that gagged up last season. Making a case for the six-time PGA Tour winner is pretty easy but does require looking past a set of recent results that really don't look good when looking to face a test that punishes the wayward. On the figures, Homa has lost strokes from tee-to-green on all his last seven starts, with iron play the main reason for the decline in what is his strongest suit. It rankles but, even with defending champions performing consistently well over the years, if he is to be beaten on this drop in class, this is the time to do it. With Will Zalatoris still on 'watch', this might leave the way for Corey Conners to win just his third professional event and first away from Texas. Given the Canadian's top-class tee-to-green game (ranked 3rd for approach and 10th for tee-to-green on the PGA Tour in 2024) it's hard to think he has not won more silverware, particularly with a CV that reads three top-10s at the Masters, 9th at last year's US Open and five top-25 finishes at the PGA and Open combined. Add to that, a third place at Bay Hill, 7th at Sawgrass and multiple top-10 finishes in the FedEx play-offs and he's beginning to look as classy as many of the previous winners here. Conners played 23 events through the 2024 season, making every weekend and hitting top-10 finishes in Canada, at the US Open, Scottish Open and at the Olympics, consistently finding shots over the field in every aspect of the long game. Of course, if he added a putting prowess to his game, he'd be virtually unbeatable, but he's finished field average in much of the final half of 2024. I've just the belief that his best game does all of these for class at the moment and and comes here fresh enough to think this is a major chance to add to a meagre trophy cabinet. Choosing between Thriton Lawrence and Christiaan Bezhuidenhout was tough, but the latter comes here with very similar figures to the headline selection and has by far the better course form. A win in the South African Open here in 2020, he defended the title with a sixth place finish and returned here a year later to finish 5th behind Fleetwood. What he lacks from tee-to-green is very much made up with a stellar short game but I just felt that overall, he lacks that bit of all-round quality found in the visitors on this occasion. Making a list after the top lot is tricky. We see them every week, mainly on the DPWT, so we know them inside out but is Jordan Smith really a 20/1 poke in this field? Soderberg 30? They have the game on paper, but have already struggled to cross the line when offered serious win chances this year. In form youngster Elvis Smylie is in rude health, following up his Australian PGA win with a top-5 at his home Open, but at the same price, Adrian Otaegui looks the right type to be with when offered eight places in this limited field. Currently known for his decision to change nationality from Spanish to UAE, the 32-year-old definitely has the game for such a test, recently knocking up his eighth consecutive top-5 for driving accuracy, a factor that may help him compete against the longer hitters. With that, the 32-year-old has improved his iron play once again, ranking 15th and 1st through the two DPWT play-off events, the latter leading to a 13th place finish in what admittedly was another limited field, but one with the likes of a peak-form McIlroy, Scott, Lowry and Niemann. Best known for waltzing home at Valderrama in 2022, he won the first European Tour outing at Fairmont St. Andrews by four strokes from Matt Wallace and, earlier this year, the Volvo China Open. Five outings around here have produced a 16th and 18th placed finish (2019 and 2022) whilst he was coming off a missed cut in Qatar when 33rd last year. He may well be done for length off the tee but there looks to be value with a consistent winner around a track that might just reward his peak game. Matt Jordan should suit it here but hasn't done much in two course outings or in any of his trips to South Africa, whilst Robin Williams may well seize the day after a terrific Autumn run consisting of 12th at the Czech Masters, top finishes on the Challenge Tour, 4th at the Dunhill Links and an easy victory when downgraded to a standard home tour event. However, the last roll of the dice lands on Daniel Hillier, who has been threatening to add to his sole win at this level, at the British Masters in 2023. The 26-year-old has some serious oomph off the tee and, combined with top-30 rankings (2024 season) for distance, off-the-tee and greens-in-regulation, brings an interesting set of stats to the table. Indeed at the Genesis and the two recent Aussie events, the selection has ranked 11th, 8th and 3rd on the 'old-fashioned' all-round stats board. In terms of what we are now supposed to love and admire, the Kiwi has ranked in the top-25 for tee-to-green in all his last seven outings, the highlights being 19th at the Dunhill Links, 8th in Korea and 7th at the Australian PGA. One outing here led to a finish just outside the top-30 last year, but he was 19th at halfway before an untimely treble-bogey 8 at the turn of his third round curtailed any hope of a better finish. Prior to that he ranked in the top-10 for greens in both opening rounds. It is a poke but Hillier has been showing up better than the final results indicate and, with doubts surrounding a good few at shorter prices, he'll do just fine.
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