Preview & Tips by Halfway House

 

Despite the overall drop in class, the South African was tough to fancy on much of his recent form, but at least the DPWT has now caught up with the PGA in crowning a big-priced champion.

Bahrain proved a very fair test, the winner finding plenty off the peg (ranked 6th for distance, 2nd for off-the-tee), a close 2nd for approaches, 1st for tee-to-green and 14th for scrambling on the odd occasion he missed the short stuff. That will always be a winning formula and, with last week's host being just a hop away from this week's venue, those stats may be more relevant than ever before.

The 27th running of the Qatar Masters sees the return to Doha for the third consecutive year, a run of just two events at neighbouring Education City interrupting the players' long love affair with the desert track.

Formally held as part of the early-season desert swing, it was unusual to see the event form such significance at the tail-end of the 2023 season.

Taking place nine months later than usual, last October's event meant an awful lot to those chasing to either keep their DPWT status, or make a late rush for one of the 10 PGA Tour cards. Either way, it doesn't look as though it made an awful lot of difference to the formlines.

Winner Sami Valimaki had previously won at Oman and had form in Dubai. Runner-up Jorge Campillo had been tied-second at Doha, a year before winning at Education City; fourth-placed Nacho Elvira was part of that 10-man play-off in 2019, whilst Scott Jamieson and Jordan Smith possessed a host of relevant desert form to hang their claims on. Look at the old-stagers for similar guidance, with 2003 champ Darren Fichardt subsequently finishing in the top three on two further occasions - at Doha three years after his win, and involved in a tie for second place at Education City some 15 years later.   

Whilst there should be an asterisk against three of the last four runnings (even Ewen Ferguson's win in 2022, took place in conditions tougher than usual) overall results suggest that, in the desert, experience of similar conditions - Middle East and links - is a big advantage.

Qatar last followed Bahrain way back in 2011, when Thomas Bjorn came on from the Royal GC to win by four strokes. Bahrain wasn't devoid of promise, with the former Ryder Cup captain finding himself out of things after a first round 75 (88th) before climbing up to 44th by Sunday night. In behind, proven links aficionados Álvaro Quirós, Robert Karlsson, Darren Clarke and Stephen Gallacher backed up the previous week's top finish with a place inside the top 12 at Doha.      

As is the case each week on the Middle East swing, there is rarely a diversion from the more pleasant weather forecasts and the course's defence will be all about the wind. 

Previous two-time champions Branden Grace (twice), Adam Scott and Paul Lawrie were all great exponents of wind play in open/Open conditions, whilst Chris Wood, Thomas Bjorn and Eddie Pepperrell do nothing to negate the thought.

Alvaro Quiros (winner and twice runner-up here) has a whole race-card full of desert form alongside the renowned links in Sicily. As a plus, he also finds himself alongside Sergio Garcia, Jorge Campillo, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Nacho Elvira as Spaniards that have thrived here. Note that since 2013, the Spanish and South African golfers have shared five wins and 11 runner-up medals.

To add spice to course correlations away from the immediate area, Campillo won the Kenya Open at Muthaiga in 2023, Ferguson was clear entering the final round at the same venue 12 months earlier before winning here, whilst 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi (at Karen GC) was runner-up at Education City to Antoine Rozner, a player with a host of relevant form at the right tracks. Extend that a little (and close your eyes) and Brandon Stone, beaten in a playoff at Muthaiga when the Challenge Tour hosted in 2015, subsequently finished runner-up to Valimaki in Oman, Paul Casey in Dubai and came back to form at Ras a couple of weeks ago, finishing in the top five behind Thorbjorn Olesen, the Dane's record at Doha including 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 12th.  

To add to the point above, form over the last month has to be of some relevance, with 11 of the 14 winners since 2010 showing something within their previous four starts, this year all in the desert. Campillo may not have been particularly in form but, as discussed above, had form at both Qatar venues, while Valimaki had an up-and-down 2023 but was just three weeks removed from a sixth place at the Alfred Dunhill Links.The Finn's previous best of the season was a runner-up behind Ockie Strydom in Singapore, a player that had a chance to win last weekend, and who left Bahrain runner-up Zander Lombard and 2017 Doha winner Jeung-hun Wang behind when winning that big-hitters competition.

The ability to smack the ball a long way never seems to be a bad thing on these tracks but, of the last few champions, only last year's winner ranked particularly highly for distance (12th), returning to the method pre-2017. Brilliant in approach and 7th in scrambling seems much more the key to success here, another pointer to the most recent DPWT form we have. The last six events at Doha have seen winning scores of between 18-under twice and 7-under, so an ability to understand how to play in varying conditions, and to avoid bogeys (Valimaki ranked 1st in that regard) seems the way to go.

Without last year's champion, or the names Meronk and (Nicolai) Hojgaard - all plying their trade over the pond - the top of the market is fairly predictable each week. The latter's twin brother, Rasmus, again takes top billing at around 11/1, but that's not quite enough to tempt, particularly as he seems better chasing the lead than being in it. 

As with Zander Lomabard and Yannik Paul, two studs of ball-striking, it's tough to get these players over the line. Place bets they may be, but at just over 4/1 combined, I'll look elsewhere.

No apology for rowing along with the top two selections from last week, and Frederic Lacroix again takes top spot, at a price that still may be just ahead of his talent. 

Trying not to repeat last week's paragraphs is tough, but the 28-year-old is now on a run of 11 cuts, with a recent DPWT formline reading 4/3/5/17, the latest an impressive comeback down the stretch in Bahrain, making two closing birdies to rise up from 9th.

The Frenchman repeated his Ras form, leading the way for strokes gained off-the-tee, his driving and iron play combining for a ranking inside the top eight for tee-to-green. Producing those figures for the fourth time in succession makes him the hottest player on the tour at present and, while he hasn't been tested in contention at this level, his three victories on the Alps Tour (2019) came via magins of two shots and four strokes (twice).

There's no worry about a missed-cut on debut here in 2022 when conditions were much tougher than likely this week, although his second round 70 is eye-catching enough, the irony being that year's winner, Ferguson, had missed the weekend on his own first look (at Education City) 12 months before.

The Scot was another tempter after seemingly returning to form at Dubai Creek and Ras, the week off a positive, but at the price, I'll put faith in Pablo Larrazabal once again.

After finishing 20th and 4th through Dubai, the Spaniard has let backers down the last twice, missing the cut at Ras before looking like doing the same last week. However, the 40-year-old improved his approach play during the week, ranking outside the top 50 for the first round, progressing to the top five for the weekend and his first sub-70 for five rounds.

Getting a bit more room off the peg will help him find lies from which he can attack these pins, and his usual short game should get him out of trouble, should it be required. 

He's striking the ball well, has recent course history of 16/5/27/4, and has won four times at this level since the start of the 2022 season. With a heap of form in Abu Dhabi, and solid figures in Chian, Saudi and Ras, he makes more appeal than the likes of Sean Crocker, hugely inviting, but not the win-machine that is available at around the same price.

Like Lacroix, Jesper Svensson has been shortening each week since the start of the year. Again, though, with justification.

A top Swedish amateur, the 27-year-old won his first event on the Nordic tour - Made In Himmerland - before finishing runner-up on his first outing at Challenge Tour level. That defeat, by subsequent Challenge Tour rankings winner Marcus Helligkilde, reads well given the latter's subsequent results, as does his win in the Netherlands (from Brandon Stone and Alex Fitzpatrick). 

The selection has continued to progress since finishing in fifth place at the end-of year rankings, leading the 2023 South African Open at halfway before running-up behind the proven Dean Burmester. 31st and 47th are steady starts to the year, but he highlighted his progress with last week's always-present runner-up finish in Bahrain behind two more experienced players, and a couple of shots in front of Lacroix.

Another that hits the ball a mile - 5th for distance in 2024 - he appears to be learning his short-game craft as we go on, improving his green-finding and scrambling as the weeks progress. The larger putting surfaces will assist this week and he is just favoured over his compatriot, Helligkilde and fellow bomber Alajandro Del Rey at around a 'bullseye'.  

With Hao-Tong Li backed off the boards and a long way from the early triple figures, I'll take the chance with Brandon Stone, equally as hard to predict from week-to-week, but at a good few points bigger. 

Probably the most noticeable formline is that play-off loss behind Sami Valimaki in Oman, when the South African was probably the best player on the park, but got done on the line by an inspired putting performance. 

That effort, in similar conditions to that he faces this week, should have been the catalyst for future success at this level. However, it hasn't gone entirely to plan, without a win since his 2018 Scottish Open, when beating former Qatar master, Eddie Pepperrell. To that end, his maiden victory - the 2016 SA Open - saw Christiaan Bezhuidenhout finish runner-up, subsequently in second place behind Justin Harding here in 2019, and his Alfred Dunhill Championship came via a six-shot victory over Richard Sterne, with masses of top-five form in the desert, Portugal and links. 

It's been a poor couple of years, but there were signs of life at home and on the Challenge Tour (see Svensson) and eight straight cuts towards the end of 2023. While the end of last year saw a string of missed-cuts, he spoke to the DPWT site at Ras Al Khaimah after a third-round 67, mentioning his work over the close season and his new eagerness to get back travelling and playing. 

Playing on the Challenge Tour had given him a 'new perspective' on golf, and that showed with his display two weeks ago, ranking 11th off the tee and 14th in the tee-to-green table. That effort wasn't entirely out of the blue, his excellent driving and approach efforts disguised by a poor putting display and a 40th place finish in Mauritius.

Although Bahrain wasn't pretty, Stone will appreciate the more forgiving nature of Doha and, like Larrazabal, has a significant birthday this year (30), traditionally a time when golfers approach a peak. With a very early tee-time for round one, and knowledge that his compatriots have an excellent record here, the former Kenya Open runner-up looks just about the pick of the three-figure prices, particularly in the place markets.