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The Dubai Desert Classic certainly lived up to its name. Although popular selections Adrian Meronk and Rasmus Hojgaard flirted with the top echelons at halfway, it was the sparkling entrance of Rory McIlroy that changed the complexion of the event. A stunning 9-under 63 - best of a tricky day by four shots - saw the pre-event favourite and highest-ranked in the field, launch from the depths on Friday night into the final group alongside Cameron Young. The American, four times a major top-10, was looking to break his maiden in the top class, and join compatriots Brian Harman and Max Homa as recent winners on the DP Tour. With Meronk showing tremendous consistency around Emirates, and previous champion Haotong Li finally putting in good figures at back-to-back events, Sunday couldn't fail. It didn't. The eventual single shot victory doesn't illustrate McIlroy's superiority and he was simply too resilient for the rest. Yes, he was gung-ho at times, but Saturday showed that a bit of bravery pays off, and he goes into next year as the 'King of Emirates GC'. Whatever the result, what was clear was the prominence of strong, long drivers of the ball. After three rounds, McIlroy, Young and Meronk headed the table for strokes gained off-the-tee, with all three appearing in the distance charts, alongside eye-catcher Joaquin Niemann. Expect the same this week at Al Hamra. We move from the quality of Dubai to an understandably standard DPWT field and, whilst we lose the likes of previous course winners Ryan Fox and Nicolai Hojgaard, as well as Adrian Meronk to the PGA Tour, their absence gives those just shy of last year's PGA gift to make a serious impact on their quest for PGA 2025. The long,wide, forgiving nature of Al Hamra makes this nothing more than a bosh-it, find it, hit it, putt it, competition. Links-like it may be, but with no wind forecast, this won’t hit anywhere near the heights of the previous two weeks. Previous DPWT winners here – Ryan Fox (Ras Al Khaimah Classic) and Nicolai Hojgaard (Championship)– suggest length is the one factor that separates the medalists from the also-rans and is the key factor behind high-level tee-to-green numbers, certainly rather than accuracy. Indeed, go back to the Challenge Tour Grand Final held here in 2018, where winner Adri Arnaus subsequently ranked top-10 and top-30 for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Defending champion Daniel Gavins isn't one that springs to mind as a bomber and, in fact, lost over four shots off-the-tee last year! In a bizarre final round, the lead changed multiple times before the Englishman stole the trophy despite a double-bogey on the final hole. Gavins owed much to his putter (leading the stats with nearly 10 shots gained) but I'm happy to look upon that day as an anomaly, despite his good placings at the length-related Alfred Dunhill Links (an event also won by Fox), European Open, Czech Masters and Di-Data, behind world's best bomber Wilco Nienaber. Points to consider: Driving distance - much of the above concentrates on the bombers only, and it's a very good place to start. We've already seen how length dominates many of these desert tracks, and how players have appreciated coming from a much narrower Dubai Creek onto Emirates. Crank the easiness up a notch this week and go along with the likes of Fox and Nicolai, both ranking in the top 10 for their victories. Tee-to-green - always obvious but there are many ways of getting from peg to short stuff. Here, Fox and Nicolai used their driver as a conduit for ranking inside the top two for approach and tee-to-green. Hit it, find it, hit it on the green. Bogey avoidance - Fox and Nicolai totalled just 14 bogeys in their combined victories. With gettable par-4s and large enough greens for the longer holes, dropping shots here will be hard to recover from. Current form doesn't mean that much- Gavins had shown slow progress, missing the cut at Abu Dhabi before finishing 38th at the Dubai Desert Classic. Fox hadn't been in great form either, with a run of 61/T26 before missing the cut on the number at Hojgaard's Championship win a week previous. As for the Dane, two missed-cuts started the 2022 season before coming to life at this coastal track. Usually, a liking for the desert is useful but, this week, it's the type of course rather than location that is more of a pointer. Selections: 1-3; -2.60pts Rasmus Hojgaard 1 point each-way 12/1 (Coral 1/5 7 places) 2nd All the top lot need looking at in context of the overall quality of this event. I've little doubt that any of Meronk, Fox and Nicolai would be single figures this week, and whilst I wouldn't go much shorter, Rasmus' claims are clear to see. The Dane's approach play has always been in-and-out, but he's recorded a solid bank of iron figures since Qatar, ranking in the top-25 in three of his last four events and leading the Nedbank field for approaches, finishing in sixth place courtesy of a shocking putting display. That limited field event is part of a run of nine cuts, 2024 seeing him finish 11th at both Dubai events after holding a place in the top 10 into Sunday. Recent driving figures are the push to get him into the plan, ranking 5th and 9th over the last two weeks, the tail-end of a long run as one of the longest out there. The 22-year-old should have finished better last year, when contesting the lead throughout the weekend, but a quick look at repeat form suggests he must go close again this week. Just 2022/2023 comparisons see him follow up a runner-up in France with a fourth place last September, 17th and 25th at the Links, inside the top seven places at the Gary Player, 7th and 11th at the DP World Tour Championship and a pair of top-20s at Emirates. It's all very solid - a player with the guile to win at more strategic tracks, now with an extra weapon in his bag and improving course profile - 42nd (11th after three rounds), 30th (14th at halfway) and 6th. He should be phoning his brother up and booking a room for next year's PGA Tour. Thriston Lawrence 1 point each way 25/1 (Skybet1/5 6 places) mc I wanted to put up Zander Lombard, who missed out on victory last year after narrowly missing a 24-foot eagle putt on the 72nd hole. However, despite everything in his favour, the maiden is priced at the same number as four-time DPWT winner Thriston Lawrence, and that seals the deal. Oddsmakers don't seem to be fans of the improving 27-year-old, and perhaps it's last week's missed-cut that added a few points. That missed weekend, though, was on the number, and he left that first round 75 behind with a six-birdie Friday, notably gaining birdies at all the par-5s. Those letters spoil a run of 11 cuts in a row, with a run from Jumeirah to Dubai Creek reading 5/7/10/11/2. He's currently showing 26th off-the-tee off 31st in distance (as befits a winner at the massive Blair Atholl), 37th for approach, 8th for birdies, 23rd in bogeys and 10th for par-4s. His game hasn't changed much over the last couple of seasons, so ignore last week and this winner at Crans (if Rasmus goes well, expect TL to do so), Munich and at his home Open can take advantage of a drop in grade. Alejandro Del Rey 0.50 points each-way 50/1 William Hill (1/5 6 places) 37th With two from the top, I tried to look further down for the final selection. The price on Tom McKibbin has now gone, easy to forecast after his win at Green Eagle, but there might still be margin in hoofer Alejandro Del Rey despite the move. The 25-year-old Spaniard looks to be improving all the time, but needs to be caught at the right tracks. Significantly, Del Rey's victory at the feeder level came at the Big Green German Challenge in Bavaria, a 7400-yard par-72 and his best effort at this level is a third place finish at the similar yardage of Laguna in Singapore. In that event, the selection led the field into payday, finishing in front of Grant Forrest, Lombard, Richard Mansell and McKibbin, all of whom relished the challenge off the tee. The pick of his form reads well in context of this event - 17th at driver-friendly Steyn City, top-20 at the Spanish Open, 5th behind Dean Burmester at Blair Atholl, and a recent outing of 38th at Dubai Creek, an event that wouldn't have suited but saw him lie inside the top-10 after three rounds. Del Rey is still green in terms of game-plan but he's ranked in third place for driving distance over the past 15 months or so and will enjoy returning to a track at which he finished top-30 in a field with more in-depth strength. Ross Fisher 0.50 points each-way 100/1 (Skybet, Unibet 1/5 6 places) 2nd The gnarled veteran has some impressive form around Al Hamra, certainly enough to make the 7/2 for a top-20 a very tempting prospect. Instead, we'll go for glory after the 43-year-old recorded weekend rounds of 65, 66 twice and 67 in his last six tries here, ensuring we can ignore any incoming form and concentrate on Fisher's love of the track. 2022 saw the five-time European Tour winner leave behind a missed-cut at Abu Dhabi and 47th at the Classic, finishing 18th and runner-up (41st at halfway). A year later, the selection improved on missed cuts at the same two tournaments to close hard from halfway, finishing on the front page of the leaderboard. Past victories over Joost Luiten, Sergio Garcia, Pod and Michael Hoey scream linksy conditions, and whilst he would enjoy a bit of a gust, it's only at the end of last year that he was 25th at the Dunhill Links, 12th at the Joburg Open dominated by bombers and 17th at Blair Atholl, again behind Burmester. Numbers-wise, Fisher isn't that far away from Lombard, Hennie Du Plessis, and the like, all of whom trade much shorter.
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