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0-3; -6.00pts Xander Schauffele - 2 points win 9/1 (Enhanced win Bet365) 15th
Tommy Fleetwood - 1.5 points each-way 20/1 (1/5 8 places, Hills) 34th
Ryan Fox - 0.5 points each-way 70/1 (1/5 10 places Bet365) 57th
It remains a great shame that from 2023, form students lost the Irish Open to a slot later in the year.
Whilst it's this humble writer's view that The Open Championship should take place in a cold, wintry September, previous Irish Open form was carried on to its Gaelic cousin via many recent contenders that include Bernd Wiesberger, Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, Lucas Herbert and, of course, last year's Scottish Open champ Rory McIlory.
That immediate link has now gone and it remains to see just how the form translates. With Vincent Norrman and Hurly Long finishing one-two at The K Club last year, historical data may provide a better correlation, with a nod to agreeing they are both in the relative infancy of their careers.
Listed as a 7237-yard par-70, the Renaissance Club offers up four par-3s of varying lengths - two each under 165 years and two over 200 yards - three par-4s under 440 yards and three of the longer holes, all over 575 yards on the card.
Last season's first and second, Rory McIlroy and Robert MacIntyre, finished in the top-15 for par-5 scoring, the winner ranking in second place and backing that up with 3rd for par-4s. The Scot matched his closest rival for those mid-range holes and also for the shorter holes, both ranking in 12th.
That seems the theme for much of the five consecutive outings at the North Berwick course starting with scoring lunacy at the inaugural event held here in 2019.
Play-off winner Bernd Wiesberger's 22-under was matched by Benjamin Hebert, both recording 5-under for the par-4s but an impressive 13-under for the 12 chances at the longer holes, and whilst conditions deteriorated for the 2020 running, Aaron Rai shot 4-under and 6-under for the 4s and 5s, with play-off loser Tommy Fleetwood recording his best on the longer holes, at 7-under.
All three play-off proganists in 2021, Min Woo Lee, Thomas Detry and Matt Fitzpatrick recorded 9-under for the par-5s, sharing almost equally a total of 20-under for the 4s, whilst both Xander and Rory shot 8-under for their set of par-5s for respective wins in 2022 and 2023.
With the Irish Open now further down the line, Wiesberger may offer some of the better clues to solving this week's puzzle.
The Austrian's eight victories at this level, from 2012 to 2021, have some interesting links to, er, links, via a defeat of proven wind/links specialist Shane Lowry and Richie Ramsay (6th at Castle Stuart 15th here), a play-off defeat of Fleetwood in China in 2017, one-shot victory over MacIntyre at Himmerland in 2017, and in 2019, a one-shot win at the Italian Open in 2019. The latter may have been a parkland course but take a look at the names in the top five - Fitzpatrick (2nd), Kitayama (3rd and then second to Xander here in 2022) and MacIntyre (4th).
Min Woo Lee went off at the longest price by far for the handful of events at Renaissance. We'll never see that 200/1 again, and his subsequent rise through to a place just outside the world top-30 is enough to justify the thought that, at the very least, expectation of future success is almost as worthy as proven high-level form.
Like many on the roll-call, the Aussie is a proven wind player, fully capable of using links conditions to attack the right side of the pins. His style would contrast with the more methodical approach of a Wiesberger or Rai, but all are very successful second-shot exponents, exactly the style that obtains the high tee-to-green stats that are found amongst previous contenders.
Points to note
Whilst the event may focus the memory on a couple of outsiders, the Scottish Open tends to reward the great and the good of the game. The event went through a short lull in terms of quality, but it's hard to disguise the names of previous champions Els, Montgomerie, Bjorn, Fowler, McDowell, Donald, Mickleson and Rose, all of whom were or went on to be part of the elite group of golfers at their time. They are also, of course, excellent examples of links golf in its finest form.
It would seem as if more recent years have seen a rise in quality but take another look and Wiesberger ended 2019 in 21st on the OWGR, Rai is now contending regularly in all PGA events, Min Woo is now ranked 31st, whilst both Xander joined many of the names above and Rory as a major champion. It looks as if you need to be from the top and, if not, certainly expected to be so pretty soon.
Rory led the tee-to-green stats on his way to victory last year, matching the ranking set by Xander, both of whom used excellent performances at the US Open and Travellers to prepare for their victories. Indeed, Rory's 7th at River Highlands saw the leaderboard highlight Min Woo (9th) and Rickie Fowler (13th) , the latter a winner of the Scottish Open at Gullane and also in Abu Dhabi, home to some of Fleetwood's best-ever performances. Rory's US Open runner-up also brings into play St. Andrews Open winner Cam Smith (4th), Fleetwood, Fowlr and Min Woo (tied 5th) and Xander, tied-10th. You can travel and still win this.
Before both Rory and Xander set the place alight, the previous three winners all finished inside the top four for tee-to-green, saving par on the odd occasion they missed the largish greens.
To get to that level, our own scoring analysis suggests that approach shots are the key, greens-in-reg somewhat vital, and taking advantage with good putting are all key to success here.
As the variance in winning scores suggests, scoring 22 or 7-under will depend on the weather conditions. So far, so good, with sunshine and the odd shower expected, more towards the start of the week. I doubt we will see the trials and tribulations of 2020, but it's a factor that needs to be kept in the back of our mind, particularly if early starters get the best of the wind.
Selections
Six of the OWGR top-10 take their place, with a total of 11 from the top-20 and, after recent results, it is hard to look that much further down, although a scan at the 'unofficial' lists (including LIV) may tell a slightly different story.
Sadly, whatever list you use, the undisputed best player in the world isn't here this week. With a 12th and 3rd in three attempts here, it would have been very tough to ignore Scottie Scheffler, the standout player of the last 18 months or so, particularly as his victory at the Travelers is even more of a pointer to his chances.
Instead, world #2 Rory McIlroy heads the field after a terrific opening half to the year. Perhaps, he won't see it as so, given his lack of converting at Pinehurst, but two wins, two second places and a third see him rank just ahead of #3 Xander, a player that finished as runner-up behind Rory at the Wells Fargo before going on to finally break his maiden duck at the US PGA, beating subsequent US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau.
Have a look just behind those front two at Valhalla and it screams relevant, with Thomas Detry (2nd here in 2021) and Collin Morikawa, the 2021 Open champion, sharing fourth place, Rose (former Scottish Open and US Open champ, 2nd 2018 Open) and Lowry (winner of both Irish and the Open Championship) sharing 6th, MacIntyre tied-8th, and 2016 Scottish Open winner Alex Noren tied with Rory in 12th. Interesting that our world rankings swap those two around, with the American being a gnat's hair ahead in silver medal place.
What to do with a player like Xander Schauffele? It seemed as though he was forever going to be the bridesmaid at every major but after 12 top-10 finishes he is now recorded in history and hasn't really stopped since.
Like many of the elite, the 30-year-old (itself a clue to his peak effort this year) is generally lightly-raced, but followed his impressive all-the-way win with 8th at the Memorial and 7th at DeChambeau's US Open, before his effort at River Highlands petered out on Sunday, dropping him from inside the top-10 to just outside, in 13th.That follows seven top-10 finishes this season including running-up at The Players and Wells Fargo and 10th at Augusta.
In three of his last five starts, the headline selection has ranked in the top two for approach play, leading to a trio of top five rankings in overall tee-to-green. The flat stick is working as well as ever, ranking 12th on the PGA Tour for strokes-gained-putting and he comes here a bit fresher than in previous years.
Xander defended his Scottish Open title with a 42nd in 2023, a far better result than at face value, given he was 74th after round one and 18th after the third round, so he loves the course, is proven to be absolutely top grade, in flying form, finding greens, putting well, and with nothing now to prove, he's in.
Looking a lot like a pre-PGA Xander, Tommy Fleetwood will surely get over the line soon, but is another to come here with all the attributes required and with another boost to his chances with the return of his former long-term caddie, Ian Finnis.
Once again, it's tough to say too much about a member of the elite, and he comes here after another successful season with a win at the opening Dubai Invitational, three top-10 finishes and a further five top-20s, seeing him rank 10th on our rankings and 11th on the OWGR.
After a moderate record pre-Renaissance Club, the 33-year-old has played this event four times, beaten by Rai in 2020, and finishing 4th and 6th over the last two years. Testament to his liking of the track comes via his finishing positions despite not being having his usual razor-sharp green-finding skills (1st, 11th, 21st for tee-to-green in 2020, '22 and '23) but he has looked in good shape at Augusta, Canada and last week at the Travelers, when four rounds of 67 or less was the worst he could have recorded.
The belief with Fleetwood is that it doesn't matter what conditions are like. He's significantly twice won the Abu Dhabi Championship and Nedbank, the latter with many a cross-over to this event, whilst at least five of his victories are from proven links/wind players such as Stephen Gallacher, Dustin Johnson, Ross Fisher, Ryan Fox and Rory. Oh, and he has his good friend and winning team-mate back on the bag after illness.
I get the love for both Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee but will look for signs leading to next week for both of those, whilst MacIntyre must be boosted by his return home, as a PGA Tour winner and has that Valhalla form that might work well.
With two selection from the top, there is only room for one more
With players such as Wyndham Clark and Max Homa (both with sneaky form here) possibly tuning up for the big one in seven days time, I'll go for a place payout at worst from Ryan Fox, who was mentioned last week as a 'watch' going into this and next week's events.
Judged on his overall resume, this looks to be an ideal opportunity for the Kiwi to record his fifth win on the DPWT, and whilst he hasn't got over the lines yet as a rookie PGA Tour player, I'm not certain that will remain so for too long.
Fox's last three wins were, like those pointed out with Fleetwood, all from proven links players.
After a debut win from Adrian Otaegui at the bizarre Super-6, Fox followed up with a five stroke victory from Ross Fisher at Ras Al Khaimah before victory at the Alfred Dunhill Links from 2016 Scottish Open champ Alex Noren.
For his third win in under 20 months, the 37-year-old won at the prestigious BMW PGA Championship, defeating previous St Andrews and Abu Dhabi winner Tyrrell Hatton and former course winner Aaron Rai. It's tough to get better formlines.
It's a matter of how the graduation to the PGA Tour has affected his game and there are certainly positives to take from his rookie year.
After an opening 14th at Fleetwood's Dubai victory, Fox took his time getting going on the other side of the pond but a final 35th at the coastal Cognisant Classic (Honda to you and me) was disguised by poor third round (69/68/74/65) , and was a springboard to a pair of top-five finishes, at the pairs-event Zurich Classic of New Orleans and at Myrtle Beach, held at the self-explanatory Dunes Golf Club, both significantly coastal venues.
Just a month ago, Fox led the Canadian Open at the halfway point, eventually finishing in seventh place behind MacIntyre, before making the cut at both US Open and Rocket Mortgage.
1st and 2nd at St. Andrews is, of course, worthy of huge respect anywhere, but a Scottish Open record of 4th, 6th and last year's 12th across three different tracks brings its own benefits, and he looked as if he enjoyed last week's return to Europe.
After perhaps losing his game a little, Fox looked good in 17th place, the worst he could have finished after making a weekend move. Continuing his excellent Eichenried record of 14th and 3rd, that ability to find form in the same places is another boost to his claims to shake up the top lot, as he did just 10 months ago at Wentworth.
Back to green-finding form, this week's final selection ranked 20th for approach play, 19th for greens found and 7th for putting average, a sign he is moving upwards towards the right end of the class.
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