After a week's break, the DP World Tour starts the second of five defined periods - four swings and a 'back 9' - eventually leading to the two qualifying DP World Playoffs in November.
From here until the end of May, players take in events in India, South Korea, Japan and China whilst pausing for the first two majors - Masters and USPGA.
First off, we arrive in Singapore for the second running of the Singapore Classic, hosted once again by Laguna National Resort Club. The ground has a choice of courses and again it's the 7400-yard par-72 track that faces the gladiators and contenders. Let's hope they're ready for the challenge of 'The Beast'.
Before last season's inaugural event, Laguna's easier track had played host to a Felipe Aguilar win in 22-under, easy to ignore given the complete difference in track. However, anyone thinking we had more clues in the course victories by John Kernohan (1996) or Danthai Boonma (2015), both in 3-under, would have been hugely disappointed when 300-1 shot Ockie Strydom beat a host of long-hitting European Tour regulars to the crown in 19 under-the-card.
If anything links up the last two names, it's surely distance off the tee, both ranking highly when in the right grade. A caveat to that is the South African's rank of 39th off-the-tee here last year, slightly out for him and a figure that is off from those of the players just around him.
What is in little doubt is the pedigree of the players filling many of the places behind Strydom, many of whom have the desert and links form that is so often referred to when previewing the likes of Qatar, Dubai, et al.
Runner-up last year, Samu Valimaki is a winner in Oman and Qatar (as well as runner-up in Mexico), with a high placing at the BMW International further evidence of his suitability for the suggested test. Tied third, Del Rey is a bomber that enjoyed the length of Wittelsbacher, and has been placed in Portugal and the Czech Republic. Of note also is that 7th place at Leopard Creek, a year after Strydom won the Alfred Dunhill as his second event at this level.
The names of Wang, Forrest, Lombard, Pavon, Mansell, McKibbin and Southgate all combine to give the thought process a definite boost, whilst Rozner and Sullivan also showed up here last year and at Louis Oosthuizen's latest victory, at Leopard Creek.
The connection between Oosty, who beat fellow LIV player and compatriot Charl Schwartzel to the Alfred Dunhill title in December, doesn't stop there. Paul Casey, playing well and recent runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, takes up a sponsors invitation, five years after winning their Porsche European Open at the equally-long Green Eagle, an event won by yer man McKibbin last season.
With the likes of Shane Lowry on the entry list, along with PGA Tour winner Matthieu Pavon and rising star Rikuya Hoshino, winner in Qatar, the overall level rises quite a bit and it would be a shock if another long-priced winner held off a classy field.
Points to note
Off-the-tee and short game
As the scant evidence suggests, big-hitters should rule the roost here, although three of the top five from last year's board also finished in the top five places for around-the-green.
Course comps
Apart from the maybe-surprising addition of Leopard Creek, obvious course comparisons include Green Eagle and Albatross, host of the Czech Masters. St. Andrews might be a play here, as well as those mentioned above that always lead us to the same thoughts - Dubai, Qatar, Portugal and Himmerland.
Selections 1-3; +2.50pts
Tom McKibbin 1point each-way 20/1 (Betfair 1/5 7 places) mc
Thriston Lawrence 1 ;point each-way 25/1 (General 1/5 7 places) 65th
Andy Sullivan 0.50 points each-way 80/1 (Power 1/5 7 places) 4th
David Ravetto 0.50 points each-way 100/1 (Power 1/5 7 places) 21st
As with Thriston Lawrence at Glendower, sometimes a profile just fits. The South African bumped into an inspired Matteo Manassero, and it's hoped that Tom McKibbin can find that extra to get this one home.
I've been loath to put up the 21-year-old at shortish prices over the last few weeks, but this seems almost perfect for the Irishman, currently 19th on the Race To Dubai but going only one way from here.
Hyped-up after an impressive amateur career, the press were always going to closely follow a player brought up at Holywood Golf Club, with that more-than-obvious connection to Rory McIlroy. However, McKibbin has more than held his own since gaining an outright DPWT card for 2023.
Previous to being here full-time, McKibbin finished inside the top-10 at the ISPS Handa at Galgorm Castle and finished inside the top six at Frilford Heath and at the Challenge Tour finale. At the end of 2022, the selection landed a trio of top-20 finishes, including a significant 13th place at Leopard Creek before 40th in Mauritius.
2023 was, naturally, a learning curve, but the main selection led around here after the first round 12 months ago before going into payday inside the top four. It wasn't to be but, in finishing 12th, and with three further top-25 finishes, it was no surprise to see him win at Green Eagle by a comfortable two shots.
With no worries about playing rights, McKibbin sought one of the ten PGA cards available at the end of the year. Despite six consecutive cuts including a top-10 at the Nedbank, a ranking 44th was nowhere near enough, but a perfect springboard for 2024, a season that has started with six straight cuts.
25th at Dubai Creek was, expectedly, improved with a 14th at Emirates,16th at Ras and hugely relevant top five in Qatar, whilst the two events in South Africa produced 12th at the St. Francis Links and, last time out, a top-10 at Glendower.
Invariably long off the peg, the rest of his game is arting to mirror the style of that European Open victory, his long game dictating the pace, with him merely having to keep up with above average figures for the short game. Currently, McKibbin ranks 27th for greens-in-reg, just four spots behind his '23 total, a factor that will improve as he comes to some suitable tracks over the next few months.
Tour-tips rankings for the past three months have the selection as 5th overall, with contributing stats being 13th in total driving, 4th in ball-striking, 6th for greens, 20th scrambling, 3rd in par-4s and 13th in par-5s.
It all works well. Rock on Tommy!
The front three have to be considered given their potential for being simply too good.
I'm not sure why Lowry flies here from Sawgrass, given his 12th at the Valspar two years ago and Pavon would be much preferred following his sixth place finish here 12 months ago.
With a victory in Spain and at Torrey Pines in the bag, that's two wins in nine starts, a period that also includes 5th at the DP World's and third place at Pebble Beach. The Frenchman may have missed the cut at Sawgrass, but only after an opening 70 and he comes here a far better and more confident player than when lying in second place after the first round here last year. He'll do for me if there is any 72-hole match betting about.
Casey could be different gear on a course on which he should be very well suited, but I'm happy to leave him alone given the question over his motivation for being here. Instead, I'll plump, yet again, for the improving Thriston Lawrence, now back in top form and with some impressive off-the-tee stats over the past few months.
Stats, lies and damn statistics, sure but the 27-year-old has ranked in the top-10 for off-the-tee in six of his last eight completed and eight of his last 10. In the same period, the selection has been top-20 for tee-to-green in half those events, including a closing 7th and 11th at St. Francis Links and Glendower.
With four victories in 35 starts from November 2021 to June 2023, the South African is up there with the best of these, his last win - at the BMW International - seeing him leave behind current PGA graduates Adrian Meronk, Jorge Campillo, Robery MacIntyre, Victor Perez, Sami Valimaki and, of course, Pavon.
Lawrence has seen steady progress at Leopard Creek, recording his best finish of 11th last season, has form in all conditions - from 6th at Valderrama to winning at Blair Atholl - and comes here in far better form than last year.
We may be getting a couple of points extra due to last year's missed-cut but that was after a run of WD, MC, T42. This time he arrives at Laguna with a closing 19th in Kenya, 10th at the SDC and a final-round 63, tying for runner-up behind Matteo Manessaro a fortnight ago.
That runner-up position was Lawrence's second silver medal in seven starts in 2024, ranking level with Rory McIlroy at Dubai Creek, both one shot behind Tommy Fleetwood. Not good enough?
I'm happy taking circa 11-1 about those two coupled as opposed to 4/1-ish about Casey and Lowry, looking to lay the place part for a profit over the weekend.
With those two in the plan, I'll have to run past those around the 50/1 mark and look further down for support.
Aaron Cockerill made some appeal after a pair of good finishes at Leopard Creek and efforts in Italy but might need the sighter, so it's Andy Sullivan that has to carry the flag for the 80/1 shots.
It's been a while since the 36-year-old thrashed his field by seven shots at Hanbury Manor, let alone a nine-shot victory at the Dom Pedro course five years earlier, but after a period of personal troubles, the one-time world top-50 has shown enough to be considered in an event that suits.
After a nine-year hiatus, Sulli caught the eye when 7th at the Alfred Dunhill last season, his third top-14 finish in four lifetime outings. That finish was the final of a trio of starts in South Africa that showed him in the top three places after a round at all of Joburg, Blair Atholl and Leopard Creek, form he has revisited recently.
Having led the Dubai Desert Classic, and being top-20 after three rounds, Sulli was top-20 again after 54 holes in Bahrain, 3rd and 4th over the weekend at the SDC and top-20 after three rounds at Glendower.
None of that is stunning stuff, but enough indication that he can repeat last season's opening 69/65 around here. With a multitude of good desert finishes, this looks a good opportunity for Sulli to keep climbing out of the depths.
There are plenty of South African players looking to follow Strydom into the winner's enclosure and both Casey Jarvis and Jayden Schaper should go well at a price. Both have form at Leopard Creek, tying with Sullivan in 7th last year and, whatever their fate this week, are both worth following given stellar amateur careers - these young South African stars often take time to reach full potential and there's a coup there somewhere.
Instead, at a similar price, David Ravetto is more than twice the price of fellow bomber and equally-promising Alejandro Del Rey and should be supported now back to a track more suited.
The 26-year-old gave plenty of notice during a solid Challenge Tour career before gaining his full card at Q-School and, within a month, showed enough through an initial South African swing to make him of interest.
2023 saw the Frenchman finish 30th at the monster that is Blair Atholl, 9th around Leopard Creek and then make his next three cuts that include Laguna.
In the top-10 after day one, his final stats read 2nd off-the-tee, 4th tee-to-green and 10th around-the-green, enough to finish just outside the top-20. three shots off a place on the front page. Since then, the progression has been steady, leading the SDC after the opening round, finishing top-10 at the Barbasol, lying in the top five through three rounds at the South African Open and finally getting his just desserts when victorious at the Di-Data, a proven source of rewards for the longer driver.
Muthaiga would not have suited nearly as well, but he was back in form when landing an each-way payout for us at St. Francis Links when using his power to record very respectable all-round figures.
Rounds of 73/69 meant missing the cut at low-scoring Glendower last time but that's fine in context, and he arrives back at a course that must reward his overall style of play.
Unlike many of the names above him, Ravetto is still very much a work in progress and will surely continue to improve as he learns how to build on his driving prowess. This looks right up his street and, whilst he hasn't faced the calibre of the front lot when it comes to the crunch, I'm not sure why he should be a three-figure price ahead of some very exposed players that find it hard to win.
