Despite taking two significant breaks in play, the Asian Swing proved a very profitable period for this column.
Adrian Otaegui's victory in China (45/1) added to plus figures in both Singapore and India, meaning over 48 points profit for the four-event period. With no more than a week's rest from now until the DP Tour Championship in November, it's full steam ahead into the European Swing.
The tour recommences with the third running of the Soudal Open, formally better known as the Belgian Open, and subject to a fea changes over the years.
The inaugural event was held as long ago as 1910 and has overcome some significant breaks. Naturally breaking for both world wars, there have been several long pauses in hosting the event, the most recent being a break of 16 years between Lee Westwood's win (2001) and the controversial revival in 2018.
Just six years ago, the event returned as the Belgian Knockout, a bizarre concoction of stroke-play and knock-out, that I fail to understand to this day. If there is one good thing about the Covid years, it stopped this nonsense, returning as a standard 72-hole stroke-play in 2022, all four events held, as is this one, at Rinkven International Golf & Country Club.
However different the format, recent results have a few definite pointers to them, with 2018 knock-out winner, and our recent hero, Otaegui, pointing the obvious connection with China. The Spaniard has a further connection to the Asian event, finishing second to Alexander Bjork at Topwin, the Swede subsequently recording a top five finish in Belgium last year.
Furthermore, Jorge Campillo, in third place behind Bjork, finished in fifth place behind Otaegui here in 2018. More? Campillo's victory in Qatar in 2020 came via a play-off win over David Drydesdale, a journeyman golfer, whose top-10 career finishes include third here behind Otaegui and top finishes at Wentworth and Joburg, tree-lined tee-to-green courses calling for quality iron play, that come up frequently throughout the four years of form.
Away from China, no event seems to provide more link than Qatar, with 2019 Belgium champion Guido Migliozzi finishing runner-up to Antoine Rozner, and third-placed Ewen Ferguson winning the 2022 Qatar Masters, a couple of months after throwing away the Kenya Open - an event that appears throughout.
It tends to make sense to look at the outliers form-lines and few names are more worthy of that title than Chase Hanna, top-five here behind Sam Horsfield in 2022. The American may well have been going through a peak period, but through 2021 and 2022 recorded career finishes at Qatar, The Belfry, Joburg and at the Euram, all events that appear prominent in too many formlines to ignore.
Points to note
Correlative form
All the courses mentioned above have that emphasis on finding a high amount of greens-in-regulation. China, Qatar, India, Kenya, Wentworth and The Belfry look the most obvious, but there are plenty of Euram, Joburg, Le Golf National and Dutch Open form.
Find the greens
Otaegui is not particularly long off the tee but has been one of the best iron players on the tour for a while. Guido ranked 6th for distance off the tee but it was his GIR that shone through, whilst Horsfield and joint runner-up Ryan Fox both hit it a long way, ranked high in distance but very low in accuracy from the peg.
The American-Englishman actually lost strokes off the tee due to spraying it everywhere, but was 3rd in approach and 12th from tee-to-green. Kiwi Fox ranked even worse for strokes-gained off-the-tee (55th) but was 1st in approach and 13th tee-to-green.
It does seem as if all types of players that thrive around this sub-7000 yard track but, if pressed, I'd ignore the tee stats and concentrate purely on the irons. There seems to be no disadvantage to having an 8-iron in than a wedge for this standard of player, something proven by the course correlation.
Current form
Even if the break has been long enough to sort out any minor issues with their swings, I prefer players coming here in decent form.
Otaegui and Guido were in good form, whilst Horsfield had recent high finishes in better class before winning this after a three-month break. Last year's winner, Simon Forsstrom, had an up-and-down start to 2023 but had finished 2022 with a T4 behind Rozner in Mauritius and recorded a top-10 in India just a few weeks before the shock victory. Incidentally, separating the Frenchman from the Swede were the names Paul, Campillo, Olesen and Green, each one with a top five finish here over the last four seasons.
Selections
Forsstrom was a three-figure poke when winning here last year, beating a front-end that included Bjork, Campillo, Detry, Olesen and Otaegui, so it's not beyond belief that this track will see another break their DPWT maiden.
To that end, I'll make the headline selection another one down the lists, in the shape of Joel Girrbach, initially available at 140/1, now settling at around 80/1, but tweeted earlier on Monday when clinging on to 100/1.
After several years grinding away at a lower level, the Swiss is playing the best and most consistent golf of his career. At 30-years-of-age, considered the peak of a golfer's professional life, he has already surpassed his next best season by over 200,000euros and risen up the world rankings by a couple of hundred places.
Girrbach's only professional victory to date came at the Swiss Challenge at Semparchee, a course that is forgiving off the fairways but throws in the curve-ball of a few trees to narrow the approaches. That he beat another short-track specialist in Craig Lee suggests this will be one of the better-suiting tracks of the year, and current form doesn't dissuade.
2023 saw the selection compete with the huge-hitting Ugo Coussaud in India, whilst his end of season run reads plenty good enough to suggest he can outrun his odds. Top-10 in Copenhagen was followed by a runner-up at the Hainan Open and a tied-7th at the Challenge Tour finale.
That seems to be India and China covered as requested, but there has been plenty more this season, making eight cuts from 10 starts, with a current run of five weekends showing improvement from mid-field through to 13th in India, 18th in Japan and 3rd last time out behind Otaegui in China, when the event was reduced to 54 holes.
Girrbach sat inside the top-10 after three rounds at both the first two of those events, with his long-game stats matching up with many of those half his current price.
Average rankings over the past three (and relevant) events include 25th off-the-tee, top-10 for approaches and tee-to-green, 15th for driving accuracy and 7th for greens found. It's all pretty impressive work and I like the fact he found some excellent form for at least the first three rounds after a month's break at the end of March.
Missing the cut on debut here in 2019, he returned to Belgium five years later, finishing inside the top-15 at Hulencourt, a strategic track that offers something for all types of player - that looks similar to the task this week and at anything approaching 80+ he still looks worth a look.
The name of Adrian Otaegui occurs so often in this preview, it is almost impossible to leave him out. Everything points to him having a good week, whether it's course form (1/26/15/15) or current form fully covered in the China preview.
Stats work very well, rarely out of the top-15 for all relevant tables, and continuing to rank in the top-10 in our own Tour-Tips ratings for tee-to-green and approaches.
The one blip in recent form is last week's missed-cut at Valhalla but, not only is that clearly several levels above the challenge this week, but he missed the weekend by one shot, alongside the likes of Jon Rahm, Luvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick et al. He simply has to go in the plan.
I have little interest in the rest of the top lot, all of whom find it hard to win, so we'll step down to three-time winner Daniel Hillier, who looks primed to peak following injury issues through Singapore and India.
A top-grade amateur in New Zealand, Hillier won his first of two events on the Challenge Tour at the short par-71 at Emporda with a 62/65 finish before winning the Swiss Challenge, held on the French border at tree-lined Saint Apollinaire after a final round 8-under 64.
That should have been our notice of the type of course he thrives at and, having teed us up with a top-five at the KLM and third place at the BMW International, perhaps he shouldn't have been touching 100/1 for the British Masters.
Finishing with a joint best-of-the-day 66, the 25-year-old held off the likes of Ewen Ferguson, Justin Rose, Bjork, Paul and Green, all names with form around here and more evidence of his suitability.
It's not been all roses since, but he showed the benefit of the mid-Spring break with 11th in Japan and 23rd last time in China (11th at the cut), his bombs off the tee far more accurate than the likes of Horsfield, and complemented by some approach play.
Given the style of most of his previous victories, I wouldn't give up on the Kiwi should he languish a few shots behind at halfway but, for now, he looks to have more progress in him than the Lombards and Canters of the game.
We've been with Matteo Manassero a couple of times recently and I'm happy to go in for one last time at a price again bigger than 80/1.
The Italian's story is very well covered, with recent form highlighted in previews for China and Japan. However, he still appears well above the price his talent deserves, coming here after his last five outings producing a victory at Glendower, 5th in India and 23rd in China.
There seems less reason to worry about his lowish ranking off-the-tee given his iron play and tee-to-green make recovery look easy. Since March, the 31-year-old's ranking for approaches averages around 8th, whilst tee-to-green is an iimpressive 2nd-and-bits, leading the way at Hidden Grace last time out.
Formally a winner in Malaysia and Wentworth, and fighting back from the depths of nowhere to once again be inside the world's top 180, he has just qualified for the US Open with a stunning 7-under 65 at Walton Heath. That'll do.
