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Kieran Vincent 0.75 point each-way @ 45/1 (1/5 7 places) Daniel Van Tonder 0.75 point each-way @ 60/1 (1/5 7 places) Ryan Van Velzen 0.5 points each-way @ 66/1 (1/5 7 places) Daniel Van Tonder Top-20 finish - 2 points @ 3/1 (General)
Although very much a bucket-list holiday destination, I'm not sure the Mauritius Open features in many golf punters' 'must bet' lists.
After the superb quartet of events in Australia and South Africa, the final event of the 'Opening Swing' (in December!) seems a bit of a comedown but a winner is a winner no matter where, so we plough on into the holiday season and a welcome, if rare, couple of weeks off.
Firstly though, the puzzle of the eight running of the Mauritius Open and its second-time host, the stunning Mont Choisy Le Golf.
There are a few clues to the type of player required for this week's test and potentially we can look at the designer, Peter Matkovich, who also designed the Heritage course used for the 2015, 2017 and 2019 running of this event, and at the opposite end of the isle.
All three of those events were won via play-offs, and while Antoine Rozner won the 2022/3 running held at this week's venue by two shots, the leaderboards also tend to have a trend to them wherever the event.
Rozner had previous form at the island venue of 7th and 2nd (play-off loss) before winning around here; 2015 winner George Coetzee appears in the top-10 a couple of years later; Dylan Fritelli followed up his 2017 victory with a top-5 the following season, whilst this week's defending champion Louis Oosthuizen went back-to-back, following up his Alfred Dunhill win and a previous 7th place finish on his only previous start in this particular event.
Those names were well-enough known at the time and are certainly recognisable now, and all with form at the 'right' places.
Oosty's form is well known, with enough major form but also with a CV containing high figures in Malaysia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, form very similar to that of Rozner, winner in Dubai and Qatar.
Lockdown winner Rasmus Hojgaard broke his maiden here and has a history of form at fiddly, but scorable tracks, such as Crans and The Belfry as well as top-10s in the desert, while American Kitayama brings finishes in Dubai, Mexico and the Scottish Open.
Lump in the well-known form of Coetzee - Dom Pedro in Portugal, Abu and Tshwane amongst plenty more - and we are looking for players with an ability on tracks affected by windy conditions, with experience of windy conditions a must.
With a few players locking away their clubs for the break, this is certainly a chance for the youngsters to shine and to follow 19-year-old Hojgaard into the DPWT winners enclosure for the first time. The Dane was a player in many a notebook before his qualification to the main league and gave notice with six top-10 finishes on the Challenge Tour in the same year. His 5th place finish at Q-school saw him finish alongside Laurie Canter, a huge hitter that ran-up to Ousty in this event last season and with form at very similar venues to those discussed above.
This is a drop in class from the last couple of events but with comparisons to the 'type' needed. Greens-in-reg is a requisite this week so look at players that thrived over the past month, even if eventual placings may have been lower than deserved. Grab a bit of Kenya (Kitayama), Portugal, Crans - you know the drill by now.
Selections
After a collectively shocking effort by the 'top-five' at Leopard Creek last week, it's hard to look at the shorter prices in a weak field. Antoine Rozner does look head-and-shoulders above his opposition on overall form, particularly as he arrives here after a trio of top-6 finishes. High finishes in South Korea, Abu Dhabi and at the seasonal climax in Dubai look outstanding compared to that of at least seven-eighths of this lot and the Frenchman also struck up quality numbers for greens-in-reg, a crucial aspect here.
Against that, this is his first outing since the DPWT Tour Championship, unlike 2022 when winning this after a warm-up at Leopard Creek when missing the weekend by a single stroke.
That's enough to put me off at single figures and instead, this looks like an event for those at bigger prices.
27-year-old Kieran Vincent may be less known than his older brother, Scott, but has shown enough in his short professional career to be taken seriously at this level.
A professional for just a couple of seasons, he confirmed early promise with a win at the International Series Vietnam, following up with a 6th at his home Open and, later in 2023, a top-20 at the China Open.
The current year has been good to the former top-50 amateur, making 12 of 13 cuts and including a victory on the Sunshine Tour and top-5's at the Zim Open and Indonesian Masters, the last two a step-up on quality of field.
That progress has continued at the end of the year, finishing alongside Justin Rose when in 18th place behind Patrick Reed, tied-9th in Qatar (behind multiple winner Peter Uilhein and just a shot off Oosthuizen and Burmester) and lately another top-10 at the Saudi International, in a field containing Joaquin Neimann, Cam Smith and Tyrrell Hatton.
Vincent has a bomb off the drive if required but has also regularly ranked in the top 20 for greens found, with three top-12s in his last four outings. This isn't a tough ask and he's value at the price, given one firm goes an awful lot shorter.
Marcel Schneider was close after bouncing back to form but, like Matt Southgate, he's one of those that gives punters far too many palpitations on the greens, so he's put in the 'back at halfway' column, in the hope of a back-door placing.
22-year-old Ryan Van Velzen was much-talked about on the Big Easy Tour through 2020/21 and confirmed much of that (winning) promise when victorious at the Limpopo Championship last year, and following up with five top-3 finishes that included tying for the runner-up position behind Burmester at the high-grade South African Open.
This year started with much positivity, and a win on the Sunshine Tour was followed by six top-11 finishes on the home and Challenge tours, the two places just off the front page being at the DPWT's Kenya and Jonsson Workwear events and a play-off loss in Cape Town. Mid-season saw the rising star lose his way but, after a break, he found his game again, finishing 24th at the shortened Australian PGA (9th after two rounds), 48th on debut at the Nedbank, and an eye-catching runner-up at Leopard Creek last weekend.
With his overall game in good shape, and memories of an opening 69 on debut here in 2022, he can become the third young star to win on the Opening Swing after Elvis Smylie and Ryggs Johnston.
After an excellent run of form, it was typical that Daniel Van Tonder would miss the cut when we were on last week. However, at a similar price and in a lower-class field, this multiple winner must be in the plan.
Four wins on the home tour in 2020 saw the 33-year-old rise in stature before his victories at the Kenya Savannah Classic and SA Open in 2021 saw him complete his ascent inside the world's top 100 by the end of 2021.
2022 saw the wheels fall off the train, although 13th and 20th at Ras, 16th at Steyn City and tied-3rd at the Joburg Open are plenty enough to think the selection still had game and the following year was much the same.
Beaten a shot by Van Velzen at the Limpopo, only a top-5 at the Italian Open gave evidence that he wasn't completely gone but he's been back in form since the turn of this year.
After a run that included tied-10th at the Di-Data, tied-20th at the SDC and 9th at the Jonsson Workwear, Van Tonder admitted that for the last 16 months he had been trying a new golf ball. Simple, he said, no swing changes, just went back to his old golf ball and form has returned.
Proof of that is in the proverbial, and since August, the selection has racked up two wins, two runner-up finishes, tied-9th, tied-10th, 11th and 15th, last week's Alfred Dunhill his first missed-cut in nine starts.
Stats for greens-in-reg make exciting reading, and whilst they should be taken with some care, they show Van Tonder ranking consistently in the top-10, something that will overcome the majority of this field. Last week's mishap allows us to back him at a price that surely underestimates his chance here, making his top-20 price a must-bet. He's the best of the lot.
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