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Rory McIlroy - 1 point win 7/1 (Enhanced win Bet365) Robert MacIntyre - 1.25 point each-way 22/1 (1/5 8 places Skybet) Niklas Norgaard - 0.75 points each-way 50/1 (1/5 8 places Skybet) Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson - 0.50 points each-way 100/1 (1/5 8 places General)
For whatever reason, there is a bit more life back in the DP World Tour.
Could be just me, but the 'Back 9' section of the season has been an absolute revelation, the first five weeks showing the tour at its best, with or without the star names.
From The Belfry, through Crans, Royal County Down, Wentworth and even Club de Campo, none of the tournaments have been subject to dull coverage of 24-under birdie-fests. Indeed, last weekend's thrilling Spanish Open was the latest to succumb to difficult conditions rather than the 'point and shoot' that we are used to.
For form students, the swing takes in some of the best correlative form around. Previews have noted the connection with winners across many of the last four or five events, most notably that of the European Masters, BMW PGA Championship and the upcoming test at the long-standing Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, taking place across Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and two rounds on the Old Course.
Numerous clues are found via both expected and the more rare champions, with Danny Willett headlining them all.
The 2016 Masters champion has won at all of Crans, Wentworth and at the Links, showing top class form in beating Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton respectively.
That looks even better when considering Hatton is two-time winner and multiple runner-up at the Links, as well as 2020 winner of the BMW PGA, beating 2019 Dunhill Links champ Victor Perez in the process.
Looking at Fitz now, the 30-year-old has two wins at Crans and comes here as defending champion, having beaten Ryan Fox, Matt Southgate and Marcus Armitage into second place. Oh, yeah, that's Ryan Fox, winner of 2022 Links and 2023 BMW PGA!
Ok, Southgate remains a maiden on tour but won the 2010 St. Andrews Links Trophy as an amateur and was a previous runner-up here to Perez, whilst Fitzpatrick beat Lucas Bjerregaard in a play-off at Crans in 2018, the Dane then coming out a couple of weeks later and beating two time runner-up Tommy Fleetwood and Hatton into second place at the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Links!
I'll stop here but could easily go on to list another half-a-dozen players that form connections with at least two of the three events - it has to be more than just a helpful guide.
In terms of style of play, it has to be about those that are patient with both the six-hour pro-am format and the nature of the tracks.
By their form, coastal tracks rely on the wind to buffer players around. Indeed, even aiming at the same landing spot, players could take four different clubs over the four rounds, depending on the prevailing conditions. Even then, the rolling, undulating fairways might see a way to bounce your ball wildly into the thick gorse or into one of the infamous Scottish links bunkers, hell to recover from.
Unfortunately for sadists, the weather forecast is not for particularly horrendous conditions despite the expected rain, and, given the easy set-up for the amateur partners, contenders on Sunday will be looking well into the 20-unders and beyond. Whilst figures suggest finding greens and scrambling well are the key here, it will be experience of conditions that wins the 23rd running of the event.
Selections
It comes as a surprise that bookmakers make Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm joint-favourites, as I would happily make the Irishman clear at the top.
The Spaniard was supreme at times during his defence of the Spanish Open crown last weekend, as he was when embracing eventual play-off winner Angel Hidalgo. However, despite managing to force his way into a play-off (for which he relied on a jelly-arm putt from the young compatriot) he looked a bit jaded though Sunday's opening round and again when recording double-bogey at the 13th.
Whilst his recovery was impressive, it's just a week since the birth of his third child and he surely only turns up here as this is the third of four vital DP Tour events he needs to tick off in order to be qualified for the 2025 Ryder Cup team.
A best of 34th in two outings here pales into insignificance when compared to McIlroy's three runner-up finishes, third and fourth place in nine starts, let alone his pair of bronze medals at the two Open championships held at St. Andrews since 2010.
Rory's recent overall form looks stronger than Rahm as well as the next three in the betting - he could/should be on a hat-trick here - and he has to be a play, as well as being a confident bet in any 72-hole match-up against the Spaniard.
Make your own cases for Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry, all of whom thrive on links. Hatton hasn't convinced of his love for the game lately and let a winning position slip away at The Belfry, whilst the other two have somehow found themselves inside the top-13 at Wentworth and Spain despite rarely looking at the best.
It's not hard to see any of those three finding that little bit extra in conditions they'll enjoy, but would appeal a bit more if the bad stuff were to arrive weather-wise.
I'm finding it tough to be put off of Robert Macintyre though, a name I'm convinced will be on the Claret Jug before too long.
Bob's been open about his issues in the past - mainly a mental approach to the game - but has now progressed to a level above even that victory in Italy almost exactly 24 months ago.
That second victory of his top-level career came via a play-off win from Fitzpatrick, with Perez, McIlroy and confirmed wind-specialist Lucas Herbert in behind, and Hatton in 8th. Try to beat that for a form line.
Since then, the 28-year-old could have won at Himmerland (another links-biased leader board), had his pocket picked at the Scottish Open by McIlroy and finished top-six in Qatar. After contributing to the victorious European side at the Ryder Cup, the Scot went on to be tied-6th in Mexico before winning his maiden PGA Tour event in Canada, with Perez, event-specialist McIlroy and Fox all in the top-10.
A quick trip back home saw his take emotional revenge on McIlroy at the Scottish Open and whilst he was maybe understandably a bit lax at Royal Troon, his relevant (and classy form) continued through the FedEx play-offs, finishing inside the top10 at St. Jude before 16th at the big-money finale.
Back home again for a try at the Irish Open and BMW PGA has seen the selection finish 5th and 12th and he comes here in great mental form and with his game firing nicely.
Bob closed in too late in last year's 54 hole event, but lay inside the top-20 on debut after three rounds, and in fifth place at halfway in 2022. He'll nab one of these and it will be when mixing it at the prices of the Fleetwoods and Hattons.
Like Bob, Niklas Norgaard will appreciate the more forgiving width of the fairways at Kingsbarns and St. Andrews, and this late improver can continue an excellent 2024 with a challenge on courses he can eat up.
Following a solid career a level down. the Dane's progress saw him with three top10 finishes at the end of his rookie season - at the lengthy Green Eagle (Perez and Joakim Lagergren inside the top-10, the latter with four top-4 finishes here), the Scandi Mixed behind links players Henrik Stenson and Marc Warren and in 7th here behind Ryan Fox.
The progress continued through 2023, where improvement was steady rather than outstanding, the highlight when leading the British Masters into Sunday, before fading to 7th after a final round 73.
It's in 2024 that we see another step up by the 32-year-old, lying in the top five entering the final round at Bahrain and Qatar, and in the top-10 at halfway in four of his next seven events. Those include at Glendower, amidst top-class ball-strikers, tricky Indian Open, Soudal and Green Eagle once again.
Norgaard made an excellent debut at the Renaissance Club, finishing 15th after leading the tee-to-green stats, before breaking his maiden when winning at The Belfry, by two shots from multiple-winner Thriston Lawrence, fourth place at Royal Troon.
It was a mixed bag at Royal County Down but rounds of 67 and 69 suggest he can play in the wind, whilst he was in the final group at halfway at the BMW PGA.
While the third round at Wentworth didn't go to plan, the Dane impressed on payday, opening with a bogey but then recording two eagles (including at the final par-5) in a round of 8-under 64.
I would like to have been on him in Spain last week, but perhaps it's a blessing that he instead arrives at a set of courses we know he can play.
An opening 63 at Kingsbarns in 2022 paved the path for a 7th place on debut, before a closing 63 at St. Andrews last year saw him rise from 102nd to 37th by the end of the third and final round.
It seems as if Norgaard has turned a corner after semi-ditching the Moeller from his name, and being long off the tee, impressing over the last month with his irons, and competent with the flat stick (led the stroked-gained putting here in '22 and top-10 in three of his last four events), he looks ripe to make a challenge to be the third Danish winner of this event.
Big-hitter Jesper Svensson is a tempter at three-figures after a season that includes a maiden DPWT victory and recent runner-up at the Czech Masters and 5th at The Belfry, but he looks a tad out of kilter at the moment, whilst Joe Dean looks a winner-in-waiting, though this should be too much of a task.
Instead, I'll have small stakes on another improving, but younger, Dane in the shape of Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson, a 26-year-old that has so far put up some noteworthy figures in his fledgling career.
A decorated amateur, Rasmus turned professional just 16 months ago, impressing on debut when lying in second place at the halfway stage of the 2023 BMW International before finishing in seventh place. Since then, the former Oklahoma Cowboy has finished 12th at Galgorm Castle, the season concluding with four top-11 finishes on the Challenge Tour and a debut 22nd at this tournament, closing with an unanswered five birdies and an eagle for a round of 65.
A few months on and the selection has risen from outside of the world's top 500 to 137th, courtesy of three victories on the Challenge Tour, the latest one being less than a month ago, when a final round of 64 saw him leap from 10th place overnight. Of interest, the German Challenge was won by last week's Spanish Open champ Angel Hidalgo in 2021 and Alejandro Del Rey a year later, the latter with form at the Scottish Open (15th), Qatar (top-20) and here last season, when lying 10th at halfway, finishing 25th by the end of play.
Surrounding that victory is a top-20 in Denmark and, after a missed-cut, last week's 13th place in Spain, where he continued an impressive set of long-game stats that have seen the youngster record top-10 rankings in driving accuracy and tee-to-green, nice figures given he is certainly not short off the tee.
This is a huge task for a a relatively inexperienced golfer but there's no telling what improvement is left in the tank and he's not out of place in an event the Nordic players seem to relish.
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