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Nicolai Hojgaard - 1 point each-way 20/1 (1/5 6 places General) Rasmus Norgaard-Peterson - 1 point each-way 22/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365) Francesco Laporta - 0.50 points each-way 40/1 (1/5 8 places Bet365/Ladbrokes) Inhoi Hur - Top Korean - 0.50 points each-way 22/1 (1/4 3 places General)
What a way to end the European section of the 'back 9 '!
After eight events across GB, Ireland and mainland Europe, it took a nine-hole play-off to separate home hero Jorge Campillo and hitherto DPWT maiden Julien Guerrier at Sotogrande.
With the overnight leaders recording nervy one-over par scores for their back-nine during regulation play, it came to a test of fatigue over nerve, with the Frenchman taking advantage of Campillo's poor play throughout their 81st hole of the tournament.
It may be nothing but regular viewers of the tour may remember the Spaniard finally defeating David Drysdale after five holes of a play-off at the 2020 Qatar Masters, looking all over the winner until dropping three shots in his last five holes. Loveable he may be, but it's clearly something for exchange players to take into account should he find himself in front at any point soon.
In a slightly strange move, the final qualifying event before the two new play-off tournaments takes place 10,000 kilometers away from Spain, at the Jack Nicklaus Golf Club, Incheon, South Korea.
The course has hosted Korea's own lucrative Genesis Championship since 2017 as well as the 2015 Presidents Cup, at which Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen, Zach Johnson and Phil Mickelson were major contributors for each side. At the risk of being obvious, links anyone? This is by no means a 'links' course though, so perhaps it's an ability to play under those conditions.
Easily best known of the home winners is Sung-Jae Im, two-time winner on the PGA Tour and currently inside the world's top-25. He won around here in 2019 and was beaten in a play-off when a short-priced favourite 12 months ago. Winner then, Sang-Hyun Park, had finished previously tied third round here, just six months previous, when Pablo Larrazabal won the inaugural and seemingly only running of the Korea Championship, an event that has merged into the Genesis Championship we see this week.
At over 7400-yards and with generous fairways, at first glance this would seem an event where the bombers would thrive. There may be water in place on many holes but anyone with a semblance of control over the big stick should be leaving opportunities to attack pins.
That said, having been scheduled earlier in the year, much of the recent event form is from a move to October, finding winning scores of anything from 6-under to last year's 17-under, clearly dependent on any wind that arrives at this coastal, if not officially links, course.
Indeed, look back at the four years of the Shinhan Donghae Open, held here from 2011 to 2014. Winning scores start from level-par (Paul Casey) through to 14-under posted by Sang-Moon-Bae, a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, whose career was curtailed by mandatory military service.
Points to note
Greens-in-regulation looks to be pretty crucial here and experience gives that nod to distance off the tee being of help, if not crucial.
Casey has always been a strong driver that finds the short stuff and a cursory look at the available stats from last season may also help, even if they are from that event in Spring.
Winner Larrazabal ranked 38th for driving distance but 5th for greens, the same level he reached when victorious at the KLM Open a month later. We can tie that long-standing Dutch event with runner-up Marcus Helligkilde - 4th at Bernardus two years before Larrazabal's win at the same track. Last year, the Dane led the field for distance and greens.
Also useful is tied-third Scott Jamieson and Joost Luiten, the latter, a Dutchman with two victories at his home Open, one at Zennemer, 12 months before Casey's victory on the same course. The Scot, fourth at links-based Hilversumsche in 2012, found himself a couple of places behind Larrazabal, whilst he also tied with the Spaniard when both finished in third place at the 2021 Spanish Open. Clearly the 40-year-old mercurial Pablo is a huge key here.
He's back again for some more course comp, having a cracking record at both the BMW International and in Abu Dhabi. Neither are let down by last season's formline in Korea, with Jamieson finishing in third place behind Larrazabal in the 2011 running of the prestigious German event and Luiten with a bronze medal behind Shane Lowry in Abu.
Greens-in-regulation stats of four of the top five here last season (no Park) read 1/5/13/15, so whilst this is somewhat of a conundrum, it looks clear that a very solid tee-to-green game is required to avoid the inevitable bogeys that come along if just too wild.
Selections
The likeable duo of Tom Kim and Benny An dispute favouritism at around 15/2, both home players with that unquestionable degree of class.
Whilst the younger man is the highest ranked player in the field, his form since the Olympics reads 50th at the St. Jude play-off event and a missed-cut at last week's Shriners, his first event for two months. In that respect, Benny's form is far more appealing, his final outing being the BMW PGA at Wentworth, when finishing with a 65 for 18th place and his fifth top-25 from six recent outings (33rd at St. Jude).
Both have obvious claims back home and both will enjoy the attention that will be focused on them. Nevertheless, with some questionable recent form for the three-time PGA Tour winner and with Benny not having won anything more than one KFT event in nine years, there is little appeal with prices of less than 4/1 coupled.
Although Rasmus Hojgaard already qualified for the final two events, the Danish contingent rely on Nicolai Hojgaard and Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson to hoist the Dannebrog, and both hold strong enough claims to take the impetus from the front end of the market.
It hasn't been easy for Rasmus's twin after a stellar few years on the European Tour, his win at the top-class DP World Tour Championship launching him to second place at the end of 2023 Rolex rankings and, naturally, paving the way for a stint on the PGA Tour.
Running-up at the Farmers was a corking start after an excellent warm-up in Dubai but his form tailed off, putting up nothing much apart from 16th at the Masters and 7th at the Olympics. However, he has shown much better form of late, recording a 66 in the first round in France to lie in fourth place before finishing 18th, whilst he started slowly last time out at the favourable Sotogrande course, finishing with three rounds of 69 or better, closing in to record a top-20.
Most notable is that the 23-year-old three-time DPWT winner kept up his strong driving, on both occasions being top-five for distance. Top that with his field-topping greens-in reg figures at Le Golf National, and his ranking of 13th for tee-to-green last week and here looks a player ready to blossom.
Winner at the Marco Simone Club and at Ras Al Khaimah, Hojgaard knows how to play tee-to-green tracks, and with this wider track very much in his favour, the least he can do is overcome the eight places he needs to qualify for Abu Dhabi in a week's time.
Neegaard-Peterson is very much the unknown at the top half of the market despite him being a couple of years older than the twins, but it won't be long before he makes his mark.
We continue to have to take ever-decreasing prices about the Dane but with justification, and he is yet another Scandinavian for whom cooler conditions will suit, as proved in a short DPWT career thus far.
A decorated amateur, Rasmus turned professional just 16 months ago, impressing on debut when lying in second place at the halfway stage of the 2023 BMW International before finishing in seventh place. Since then, the former Oklahoma Cowboy has finished 12th at Galgorm Castle, the season concluding with four top-11 finishes on the Challenge Tour and a debut 22nd at this tournament, closing with an unanswered five birdies and an eagle for a round of 65.
A few months on and the selection has risen from outside of the world's top 500 to a smidgen outside the top-100, courtesy of three victories on the Challenge Tour, the latest one being less than two months ago, when a final round of 64 saw him leap from 10th place overnight. Of interest, the German Challenge was won by last year's Spanish Open champ Angel Hidalgo in 2021 and Alejandro Del Rey a year later, the latter with form at the Scottish Open (15th), Qatar (top-20) and here last season, when lying 10th at halfway, finishing 25th by the end of play. Both those Spaniards also happen to be strong drivers of the ball.
Surrounding that victory is a top-20 in Denmark and, after a missed-cut, a 13th place at the Spanish Open, 4th at the Dunhill Links (rewarding our each-way bet at 100/1) and 18th in France where he continued an impressive set of long-game stats that have seen the youngster strong figures for tee-to-green and for his chipping game.
RNP got caught up in some rubbish during last week's third round but bounced back on payday, recording seven unanswered birdies in a best-of-the-day 65. Figures for greens-in-regulation read 22/5/38/7, continuing a run of ball-striking that sees him rank in the top-five for ball-striking and GIR on our 6-month tracker.
A nice kicker is his debut at the BMW International last year when disputing the lead before finishing in seventh place and he knows he needs a good finish to secure his place inside the top 114 and retain his card.
Much of Francesco Laporta's best form is from a few years ago but after showing excellent signs over the last three months, he is worth trusting to be involved in a field that hasn't much depth once past the top four or five.
Although he has won just three events, all on the Challenge Tour, they do have some significance to this week's task.
The 34-year-old won his first event at the Hainan Open in China, closely followed by a victory at the Grand Final on a course won by a mix of long-drivers (Marco Penge) and tee-to-green merchants (Nathan Kimsey) before winning the Big Green German Challenge some four years later. The latter event, on a 7400-yard par-72 has already been referenced above, having been won by Del Rey, Hidalgo and last year by RNP.
In between all that, some of the Italian's best results are found in Dubai, Italy (fourth place behind Nicolai, Tommy Fleetwood and Adrian Meronk) and a myriad of top-10s that include Himmerland, Sicily, Wentworth and at the Irish Open.
Back on the DPWT, Laporta has had a progressive year and currently sits in 84th place, not too far off a place in next week's if he can put in a stellar week, and recent efforts suggest it may be close.
The final position of 43rd at the Dunhill Links disguises his top-20 position at halfway, whilst a week later he shot 64/66/67 to come from 85th to 6th in France. Last time out at the Andelucia Masters, the selection flirted with the top-20 throughout the event, showing form with his driving accuracy but being let down by his irons, the first time he has shown negative figures in eight starts.
Nevertheless, his overall greens-in-regulation play sees him rank 6th in our tracker, courtesy of 6th at the huge Albatross track, 1st at Crans, 5th at the Links and 8th at Le Golf National. Given two of his three Challenge Tour wins have come in 6-under and 7-under, I'm happy enough to think he's adaptable whatever the conditions.
The field loses some strength once we pass the halfway mark but we landed a nice priced place and top home player earlier this year with Veer Ahlawat and will try again here.
I can't pretend to know too much about 37-year-old Inhoi Hur but the home player has won twice inside his last 30 starts, on both occasions beating a similar field, admittedly without Tom Kim or Benny.
What we can find out is that he drives the ball an awful long way and in a straight line, something that has to be of benefit this week. Of the figures we have, he gets to somewhere around 330 yards off the tee, and can scramble and putt.
Since 2021, Hur has won three times, the first beating Tom Kim by two shots in 5-under, then by four in 20-under, and in June, via a play-off. That victory backs up nine top-10 finishes in 19 starts, the last four events showing finishes of 5th, 9th, 16th and last-time out, a runner-up behind improving youngster Wooyoung Cho.
Course form works nicely, with a 17th in 2020 backed up by his last two starts at the Genesis - a closing 8th in 2022 and an always-present 4th last season.
It is a poke, but there are four places out there for top Korean and I'm not certain he would need to improve much on long-time form to pay out a place in this market.
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