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Dunlop Phoenix Tournament
Outright plays (1 unit):
Shingo Katayama to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Excellent course form and on top of his game at the moment. In his last eight
tournaments, he has finished inside the top-8 in all but one event (he finished
13th) and defended his Suntory Open title in September. After a poor start to
the season, he is approaching the form that earned him victories in three of the
last events in the 2000 season, including this title. He finished 3rd when under
the pressure of being defending champion last year and it is hard to see him
anywhere but in contention.
Hidemichi Tanaka to win 28/1 e.w. @
William Hill
Again was unsure about whether to pick Tanaka or Taniguchi (33/1 Ladbrokes), but
with this price and being unsure why Taniguchi withdrew from last week's event,
have decided to opt for Tanaka. He followed up his 4th place finish in the
Disney Classic with a close 2nd place finish last week, his first start in Japan
for a year. He has played well on this course in four of the last five years,
finishing no worse than 12th on three occasions and finishing 21st in 1997 when
he had been 2nd early in the event. With 20/1 the best odds outside William
Hill, the double-winner on the Japan Tour in 2000 and 2001 looks good value.
Darren Clarke to win 33/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
You never know which Darren Clarke will turn up in Europe. He can be the best in
the world one day and be totally disinterested the next, but in Japan the
Irishman has shown a remarkable (for him!) consistency. He has played ten times
on the Japan Tour in the last five years and his worst finish has been 16th. He
won the Chunichi Crowns in 2001 and finished runners-up on three other
occasions. In forty rounds on the Japan Tour in the last five years, he has shot
just one round over par. An impressive record in this event and in Japan as a
whole and at his best at times in the Volvo Masters, he is backed with
confidence this week, which is a rare thing indeed!
Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
K.J. Choi to beat Kenichi Kuboya -133 @ Expekt
Kuboya is a double-winner on the Japan Tour this year, but those back-to-back
victories were in May and he had since struggled until a few weeks ago. But with
his record in this event - no better than 45th in his last four visits - it is
hard to see this improvement in form continuing. Bar a missed cut in the Buick
Challenge, Choi has won one (Tampa Bay Classic) and finished in the top-10 in
his last five starts and took Tiger Woods to a playoff in Tuesday's Phoenix
Challenge. No course form, but much the better player.
Nobuhito Sato to beat Kenichi Kuboya -110 @ Five
Dimes
Sato also has some indifferent form at Phoenix, but at least he can claim a
top-10 finish two years ago and has not been beaten by Kuboya in any of the last
four years. With a head-to-headrecord of 16-5-0 over the past twelve months as
well, there seems every reason to expect Sato to win again this week.
Darren Clarke to beat Toshimitsu Izawa -107 @ Five
Dimes
He may have secured top-10 finishes in each of his last three events, but it has
been a rather inconsistent season for Izawa. With a 2-1-0 lead over Izawa in
this event, I will take the Irishman at these odds.
Darren Clarke to beat Lee Westwood -125 @ Centrebet
[3 units]
Both of these players have excellent records in Japan. The big difference is
that as Westwood's game has dissolved (and his family has expanded), he has been
less inclined to travel. He last played in Japan in April 2000, whereas Clarke
can point to a win and a runners-up spot last year in Japan. Lost out with
Charlie Wi when opposing Westwood last week in China and can very little reason
this week to change strategy.
Sergio Garcia to beat Justin Rose -125 @ Centrebet
A fine 5th place finish last week from Rose, but he has not rested since the end
of the European Tour season and has no course form this week. Will side with
Sergio who was 2nd in 1999, has an excellent record in Japan and had a week off
after the Volvo Masters.
Dean Wilson to beat Taichi Teshima -115 @ Five
Dimes
Teshima was a runner-up last year having previously failed to impress on this
course. That must seem a long time ago as his 13th place finish last week was
his first cut made on this Tour in two months. Wilson hasn't missed a cut on
Tour all year, has a good course record and leads Teshima 7-0-0 in the last
three months. It will surely be eight this week.
Final update:
Matchups: 6-0-0; +8.00 units
Choi/Kuboya WON by 15
Sato/Kuboya WON by 1
Clarke/Izawa WON by 10
Clarke/Westwood WON by 15
Garcia/Rose WON by 2
Wilson/Teshima WON by 3
Outrights: 1-2; -0.61 units
Katayama 21st
Tanaka 14th
Clarke 4th
Great sweep in the matchups, pity about the Irishman! Clarke had
healthy wins in his matchups, but was anything but consistent. First-round
leader and then only one off the pace with 18 holes to play, he never even drew
level with Yokoo and eventually was thankful that Rose bogeyed the last so he
had a share of 4th. Pity BlueSq were only offering four places.
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