AFLAC Champions

The LPGA season is drawing to a close when the AFLAC Champions event is played. It is the first of six official-money, limited-field events that mark the end of the season. The event is limited to active LPGA Tour Hall of Famers and tournament winners from the past three seasons, making a total of 40 players this year. With Amy Alcott, JoAnne Carner and Nancy Lopez in the field, there are effectively 37 players competing this week. One player who is not here is Annika Sorenstam. This is the 2nd straight year that she has missed this event despite being a former winner (1997). Does that leave the event open for Karrie Webb who has finished 1st or 2nd in four of five starts in this event? With finishes of 15th, 31st and 44th in her last three events, she is nowhere near the player of previous years or even mid-summer. She cannot be supported at very low odds.

They play a typical Robert Trent Jones course with many large sand bunkers and large undulating greens. The 4th hole is very similar in design to the famous 11th hole at the Augusta National. The fairways are tree-lined, but they are generous and it with approach shots and around the greens, rather than off the tee, that scores are made and lost.

The three selections for this event are Se Ri Pak, Wendy Ward and Meg Mallon. If Webb is ill-equipped to take advantage of Sorenstam's absence, then Pak should be the one to profit. She skipped last week's weather-affected event to be with her sister and should come into the event in a better state of mind to be play competitively. She hasn't played since the Canadian Women's Open when she finished 3rd - her fourth top-3 in five events including two victories - but is best current player on view this week in Sorenstam's absence. She should certainly improve on last year's 4th place finish.

With a small field, it is welcome news that Ladbrokes are still offering five places, so the other picks are more value plays to take account of the extra place on offer. Ward could even win this event - she won for the first time in three years at the Wendy's Championship only last month - and she has retained her form since with finishes of 6th and 5th in her two starts this month. Not a great record in this event, but she is certainly playing well enough to finish in the top-5 this time.

Mallon is another that has been in good form for the past few months. She has finished in the top-6 in five of her last nine Tour events and in the top-20 in all the others bar the British Open. She has yet to win this year and is much more likely to secure a place finish than win, but she has shown herself to be very consistent and competitive at this level. With five places in a 40-player field, she shouldn't be too far from that target.

Outright plays:

Se Ri Pak to win 10/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold or Bet365

Wendy Ward to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes  [5 places option] 

Meg Mallon to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes  [5 places option]

72-hole plays:

Dottie Pepper to beat Laura Davies -111 @ Simon Bold
The defending champion gets the nod here because of her course form and the indications that she is returning to something near her previous form. She gained a top-10 finish in the Williams Championship earlier this month ... it was her first top-10 in three months! Davies has been securing some high finishes of late, but that has been on the much weaker European Ladies Tour

Meg Mallon to beat Maria Hjorth -110 @ Surrey [2 units]
After a run of six top-3 finishes in seven events without winning, Hjorth's game vanished. She has since improved to be a consistent top-20 player, but the outright selection has been playing more consistently and at a higher level apart from that mid-summer streak

Mid-point update:

No cut in this limited field event, but plays are looking good at the halfway stage. Pepper has a four-shot lead over Davies and Mallon has a six-shot lead over Hjorth. Could even return a rare profit on the LPGA outrights ... Pak lies 2nd just one shot behind Kim and Mallon lies 5th a further three shots back. Ward is 29th and out of contention.

Final update: 2-0-0 and +3.00 units

An excellent week on the LPGA Tour   Pepper completed a 16-shot rout of Davies and Mallon defeated Hjorth by three shots. Very nice.

Update on outright plays: 2-1 and +6.65 units

Se Ri Pak won this event in the 3rd round when she opened up a 7-shot lead. In the end she won by five shots   Mallon finished the day once again in 5th place for a place win, though it is halved as Koch birdied the last three holes to tie with Mallon. Ward finished 20th, but still a very good week on the LPGA Tour!