Longs Drugs Challenge

History is in the making this week! If Annika Sorenstam wins the Longs Drugs Challenge she will tie Nancy Lopez's record set in 1978 of five consecutive LPGA Tour wins. Some would even consider it a greater achievement than that of Lopez because Lopez missed a tournament on the LPGA schedule, whereas this would be both Sorenstam's and the Tour's fifth consecutive event.

But history also repeats itself and last week's final round collapse by Hurst and Sorenstam's victory from a ten-shot final day deficit was reminiscent of the AT&T last year. At Pebble Beach Tiger Woods covered a seven-shot deficit with seven holes to play and best Matt Gogel to the title. It took him to six consecutive titles, though he was still some way short of Byron Nelson's record. The following week at he Buick Invitational Phil Mickelson took advantage of the draining effect of such charges and saw off the Tiger. I expect something similar to happen this week!

The player to end Sorenstam's record bid will be Julie Inkster who is chasing a unique achievement herself this week. If she wins, she will become the seventh player in LPGA history to win the same tournament three years in a row. Only Laura Davies has won an event (Standard Register Ping) four times in a row. But it should be no surprise that Inkster plays well here, this is as close to a home tournament as she can get. She lives in Los Altos (125 miles away) and she and her family will stay at her sister-in-law's house in nearby Auburn. She always enjoys considerable support around this tight, demanding course and if it became a head-to-head with Sorenstam, the Swede would have history and the crowds to overcome. Too much too soon after last week's heroics.

Apart from Inkster, the other outright plays this week are Janice Moodie and Brandi Burton. Moodie came within a shot of securing a place win for us last week, but it was a valiant attempt and coming off a 2nd place finish at the Nabisco Championship, she will come into this event full of confidence. She has not played this event since 1998 when she finished 28th, but with her currently standing very high in the greens in regulation stats and in a rich vein of form, she should perform much better this time around.

No such worries over course form for Brandi Burton. She was 6th in 1998, did not play in 1999 and was 2nd to Inkster last year. When her only round in the 70s was her final round 74; this is a par-72 course and only eight players finished under par last year. She has not had the best of seasons so far, but 7th in the Nabisco and 14th last week are signs of improvement and with the 3rd best greens in regulation stats of this week's field she will relish the move to this tight course.

Outright plays:

Julie Inkster to win 9/1 @ William Hill  

Janice Moodie to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Brandi Burton to win 28/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Just one 72-hole play:

Michelle Redman to beat Laura Davies -130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Redman has been a model of consistency this season, culminating in a 4th place finish last week; Davies has been the opposite, missing the cut in three of her last five events. She is not a frequent visitor to Twelve Bridges and on a tight course she is not expected to play well this week

And one 1st round play:

Michelle Redman to beat Laura Davies -122 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

1st round update: 1-0-0 and +2.00 units

Convincing win on the first round play. Redman beat Davies by nine shots, which also the margin by which she leads in the 72-hole play. Davies will play in the morning in the 2nd round and may yet make the cut, but it's still a healthy lead with 54 holes to play

2nd round play:

Laura Davies to beat Grace Park +110 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 0-0-1 and +0.00 units

Davies and Park both shot 73 in the rain-delayed 2nd round, which I suppose avoids any confusion over whether the wager would still have been valid as it had started a day late and with different tee-times. The only 72-hole play of the week is decided at the cut as Redman ends the 2nd round in 2nd place and Davies missed the cut. The margin of victory: twelve shots.

Continued misery on the LPGA outrights though. The numbers suggested that Pak e.w. @ 14/1 was the best play of the short-price outrights, but gut-feeling said Inkster. Pak leads the event with one round to play and Inkster lies ten shots back in 38th   Bad day for Burton, she dropped from 13th to 52nd, while Moodie is a shot further back in 69th place.

No Five Dimes lines for the final round yet, so hopefully will have some plays later.

Final update: 2-0-1 and +4.00 units

No final round matchups from Five Dimes so cannot add to the week's pleasing unbeaten record on the matchups. At least they covered the losses on the outrights!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

As anticipated, the 'pick that should have been', Se Ri Pak, won the event   For the picks that were made, Moodie finished 42nd, Inkster 51st and Burton 62nd. In the end, no history was made this week as Annika Sorenstam failed to break par on any round, but it was taken out of her reach when the event was reduced to 54 holes.