State Farm Rail Classic

The event may be 25 years old, but there have been enough incidents in the last two years for any event. Two years ago, Janice Moodie had been the overnight leader going into the final round, but was one-shot behind Mi Hyun Kim when, on the 13th hole, she hit her drive into a fairway bunker. As she addressed the ball a bug landed on it and she reached down to swish it away. LPGA Tour officials gave her a two-stroke penalty for allegedly touching the ball and suddenly she was three strokes behind Kim with five holes to play rather than one. The ruling was seen by an LPGA official watching at home on television. It set off a chain reaction of telephone calls and two-way radio messages to officials on the course, eventually resulting in the penalty being rescinded just as Moodie walked onto the 18th tee, now one shot behind. She parred the hole and lost by one shot. Annoyed she certainly was and she didn't come back the following year.

And then there was last year. For the first and only time in LPGA Tour history, a Monday qualifier captured an event, when Laurel Kean won. She had to win a two-hole playoff in the Monday qualifier just to earn a spot in the event and then went out and carded three straight 66's to cruise to a six-shot margin over 1999 champion Mi Hyun Kim and Dina Ammaccapane. She became the fourth straight first-time winner of this event. With the return to the event of Annika Sorenstam after a six-year absence and the change in format to 72-holes, there is unlikely to be another first-time winner this year, though it does mean there is an extra day for this event's bizarre incidents.

The three selections are Lorie Kane, Emilee Klein and Janice Moodie. With Sorenstam and Kim dominating the market, there are attractive odds available for Kane and at five places. She may not have won since the Takefuji Classic, but she has secured top-5 finishes in three of her last six events and in two of her four visits to The Rail. With an all-round game that is bettered in the stats by only Sorenstam of this week's field, she looks too high a price to ignore and gets the lead selection.

Emilee Klein does not have as long a gap since her last victory, she won the Michelob Light Classic last month and has finished no worse than 21st in her four starts since. With top-10 finishes in her last two visits, she also looks a serious contender for at least a top-5 finish and at good odds as well.

The final selection is one who should be focused this week. Janice Moodie can right the wrong that she suffered two years ago when she was still searching for her maiden win on the LPGA Tour. She has since reached that milestone and is now rested having played for five straight weeks on two continents. That spell included top-5 finishes at the Giant Eagle Classic and the British Open and she is certainly capable of winning this week ... she deserves to!

Outright plays:

Lorie Kane to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]

Emilee Klein to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey

Janice Moodie to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey

72-hole plays:

Donna Andrews to beat Helen Dobson -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Very easy to oppose Dobson. She has missed the cut in 13 of her 18 events this year, whereas Andrews hasn't done so since the US Women's Open. Complete mismatch

Wendy Doolan to beat Laurel Kean -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Kean had a career week last year and is very easy to oppose as defending champion. She has failed to secure a single top-10 finish since and has missed her last three cuts. Doolan can boast top-15 finishes in her last three events and with a decent record on this course, this is another, albeit not as strong, mismatch

Lorie Kane to beat Pat Hurst -111 @ Simon Bold
Hurst may have secured her first top-10 finish last week since the Electrolux USA Championship, but she failed to threaten the leaders despite a good opening round and her underlying form remains poor. The more consistent Kane would win this matchup more weeks than not

Mid-point update:

None of the matchup plays were decided at the cut, though they are very close and Kean only just made the weekend on the cut mark. Doolan has a one-shot lead over the defending champion and that is the same margin that Kane leads Hurst. The other play is void as Dobson did not start the event. In the outrights, Sorenstam looks dominant, but Klein is just three shots back in 2nd place. With Kane 14th and Moodie 29th, this event hangs very much in the balance at the halfway stage.

Final update: 1-1-0 and +1.89 units

Split the plays, though at least the 3-unit play was a winner. Doolan eased to a ten-shot win over Kean, but Kane had a poor final round and surrendered her lead over Hurst in the other play. She finished a two-shot loser.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +1.63 units

Little change over the weekend, Klein maintained her place position, while the other two finished outside the top-5. Klein ended the week in 4th place, while Kane was 39th and Moodie 55th to secure a small profit on the event