Tour Championship
Outright plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Annika Sorenstam to win 6/4 @ BetandWin, Expekt
and Sean Graham
[3 units]
Se Ri Pak to win 8/1 @ Sean Graham
Not a strategy for getting rich quick, but one based on generating a profit on
the event given recent history. Between them, Sorenstam and Pak have won the
last six LPGA strokeplay events! Their run would have been extended to eight
consecutive wins as Pak won the Betsy King Classic in August, but she finished
2nd to Meunier-Lebouc the following week. Last year, Webb won the event
(Sorenstam was 2nd; Pak didn't play) by finishing top of the greens in
regulation statistics that week. This year, Sorenstam and Pak have a
considerable lead in this stat category over the rest of the Tour. With there
being no event last week, bar the Hyundai Matches, there should be no fatigue
effect from the Asian leg of the LPGA Tour and if either player is anywhere near
their game, they should win this event.
Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Patricia Meunier-Lebouc
-118 @ Expekt
Impressive run of five top-10 finishes in her last nine events is ample evidence
that Ammaccapane is playing better than Meunier-Lebouc who did win the State
Farm Classic in September, but who has failed to record another top-10 in the
past fourteen months.
Beth Daniel to beat Michelle Ellis -111 @ BetandWin
Daniel should be much fresher than Ellis as she did not go to the Tour stops in
South Korea and Japan. Ellis must have wished she had away as well - she
finished 60th and 45th in limited-field events - and it is three months since
she secured those back-to-back 2nd place finishes. With only Daniel having the
course experience prior to this week, she should prevail as she has done all
year: 7-3-0.
Se Ri Pak to beat Karrie Webb -111 @ BetandWin
Since Webb won the Women's British Open in August, she has finished inside the
top-5 just once in five strokeplay events. In the same period, Pak has finished
outside the top-5 just once in eight strokeplay events and has won three times.
The gulf in form is more than capable of making up the deficit in terms of
course experience, particularly as Webb has the pressure of being defending
champion.
Final update:
Matchups: 0-3; -5.10 units
Ammaccapane/Meunier-Lebouc LOST by 18
Daniel/Ellis LOST by 4
Pak/Webb LOST by 4
Outrights: 1-1; +3.00 units
Sorenstam 1st
Pak 7th
At least the strategy on the outrights bore fruit, though I would not have
sided with Pak had I known before Thursday evening that she was suffering with
such dental problems. Lost out twice with Se Ri and not a very pleasing way to
finish the LPGA season on the matchups, but still a decent profit overall.
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