Mizuno Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Carin Koch to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Rather large odds for a player who has been in inspired form since the Solheim Cup. In the four events since she finished the top points scorer for the European team, she has finished in the top-10 every time and in the top-3 in her last three events. Importantly, she has course experience as well. She finished only three shots behind Maria Hjorth two years ago. If she can cope with the cold winds and rain of the Nine Bridges Classic when three months pregnant, she should be able to secure another high finish this week.

Lorie Kane to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Another offering from Sean Graham that is markedly better than the rest. SkyBet and Bet365 go 25/1, for example, and this is certainly warranted given her course and event form. She has played in this event in each of the last five years and when it has been played at Seta, she has finished 2nd (1997), 13th (1999) and 1st (2000). When it has been played at Musashigaoka, he has finished 3rd (1998) and 11th (2001). She obviously likes playing in Japan! Her form has improved markedly since August with six top-10 finishes in her last ten events and she only lost by 1 hole last week to the eventual runner-up, Midori Yoneyama. Should never by 40/1.

Yuri Fudoh to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Rather large odds for one of Japan's most famous female golfers and the leader on the 2002 JLPGA Money List. She has won three times this year, including twice in the last three months, and is on a run of eight consecutive top-10 finishes. On her last visit to Seta in 2000, she finished 3rd behind Kane and Gustafson and was poised for another top-3 finish last year until a final round 77 dropped her out of contention. Should go close and should be half these odds.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Akiko Fukushima to beat Beth Bauer -115 @ Five Dimes
Playing home-field advantage here. Bauer lost comprehensively to Yuri Fudoh in her first round match last week and it was her first time in Japan. Having finished 57th of 84 in South Korea the previous week, it does not look as though the 2002 LPGA Rookie of the Year is enjoying this international leg of the Tour. Fukushima returned home from the LPGA Tour to win the NEC Karuizawa 72 in August and has played since when she returned to the JLPGA Tour in October.

Carin Koch to beat Hee-Won Han -125 @ Expekt
Koch beat Han by 1 hole in last week's 3rd/4th place playoff, but a bigger margin is expected this week. Koch has beaten Han in four of their last five meetings and when they both played on this course in 2000, Koch finished 6th, while Han finished 62nd of 78.

Carin Koch to beat Mi Hyun Kim -115 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Kim who has been struggling with her game since she won back-to-back victories in the summer. While she did cope with the atrocious conditions better than most in her homeland, she did fall to Yoneyama in the 1st round last week and can boast only a 28th place finish on this course. Koch has won their last four common events and I don't see any reason for change this week.

Lorie Kane to beat Mi Hyun Kim -118 @ Expekt [3 units]
If Koch can beat Kim, then event specialist Kane will certainly do so. She leads Peanut 5-0-1 in their last six events and with this week being the Mizuno Classic, this should be another win for the Canadian.

Final update:

Matchup plays: 1-3; -2.33 units

Fukushima/Bauer LOST by 3
Koch/Han LOST by 2
Koch/Kim LOST by 3
Kane/Kim WON by 4

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Koch 32nd
Kane 5th
Fudoh 13th

Was always struggling in this event. Kane had finished the 1st day in 5th place (4 places only at Sean Graham) and was dropped down to 5th place on the final day with two late birdies by Gloria Park. Fudoh had finished the 2nd round in 6th place (5 places at SkyBet), but struggled at the start of the final round. In the matchups, only two of them were ever ahead once Koch had started poorly. The margins of defeat may have been small and the outrights did get close to the place positions, but this event was always a struggle.