Asahi Ryokuken Championship

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Cristie Kerr to win 25/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes
She admitted to being unsettled by her partner, Grace Park's, start in the final round last week, but she will rue her failure to hold on to her lead on the back nine on Sunday. That makes two runners-up finishes in the past three weeks and while she has won on Tour previously (2001 State Farm Classic), she does need to convert her good form into victories. If she keeps putting herself in contention, then it will only be a matter of time and in a week without Annika and Karrie, this could be the one. She finished in the top-20 last year and should at least match that with accuracy more important this year.

Meg Mallon to win 35/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes
The greater emphasis on accuracy should also benefit Mallon who finished 6th on her only previous visit in 2001. She has been competitive this year with a top-5 finish two weeks ago and was in contention throughout last week before finished 12th. This week she plays against a much weaker field and she did win the Canadian Women's Open last year against sterner opposition.

Catriona Matthew to finish in the top-five 9/1 @ Five Dimes
Matthew has won on Tour (2001 Hawaiian Ladies Open), but she is far from a good closer of events. She had been a runaway in last year's Canadian Women's Open until a nervous final round 77 enabled Mallon to win. She did the same three weeks ago in the Takefuji Classic - she had been leading the event going into the final round but a 74 meant she finished 6th. That said, she has still shown very good, consistent form this season and with a 6th place finish this year, this should be another week that she contends. But at these odds I'll take the place-only option until she proves her leading abilities otherwise.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Meg Mallon to beat Beth Daniel -110 @ SkyBet
Mallon has finished ahead of Daniel in each of the last two weeks and when they both made their only appearance in this event in 2001, Mallon finished in the top-10 whereas Daniel finished outside the top-50.

Rosie Jones to beat Laura Diaz -135 @ Five Dimes
Jones looks the more consistent player - her worst finish of 2003 has been 39th whereas Diaz has missed the cut twice in seven starts - and has a very impressive record on this course. They both tied for 16th position in 2001, but only Jones came back last year and she finished 3rd. The greater emphasis on accurate play this year should enhance her chances further.

Jenny Rosales to beat Dottie Pepper -167 @ Expekt
Big price to pay, but worth it for a rare opportunity to oppose Pepper who is a shadow of the player she was before injury. She has played only six times since the 2001 Tour Championship and has a best finish of 39th. Her driving in particular has been very poor and that should be punished on this course. Rosales has finished in the top-10 in three of her last five events and should win this with ease.

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Sophie Gustafson to beat Pat Hurst -115 @ Five Dimes
Rosie Jones to beat Laura Diaz -140 @ Five Dimes
Se Ri Pak to beat Lorena Ochoa -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 1-1-1; +1.28 units

Gustafson/Hurst LOST by 4
Jones/Diaz TIED (Push)
Pak/Ochoa WON by 2

Mid-point update:

Mallon/Daniel Trails by 1
Jones/Diaz Leads by 2

Kerr 32nd
Mallon 47th
Matthew 18th

Needed the profit on the 2nd round plays as the outrights are quite a distance from a top-5 place. Mallon had been closest but is now out of the running after double bogey-double bogey finish. Matchups are close and thankfully Rosales did not tee off as Pepper is having her best tournament for two years.

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Se Ri Pak to beat Lorena Ochoa -142 @ Five Dimes
Catriona Matthew to beat Janice Moodie -140 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-1-1; -2.13 units

Pak/Ochoa LOST by 3
Matthew/Moodie TIED (Push)

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Lorena Ochoa to beat Patricia Meunier-Lebouc -133 @ Five Dimes
Janice Moodie to beat Dottie Pepper -140 @ Five Dimes
Tracy Hanson to beat Giulia Sergas -122 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 0-3-0; -5.93 units

Ochoa/Meunier-Lebouc LOST by 3
Moodie/Pepper LOST by 7
Hanson/Sergas LOST by 1

Final update:

Matchups: 2-0-0; +3.00 units

Mallon/Diaz WON by 2
Jones/Diaz WON by 5

18-holes: 1-5-2; -6.78 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Kerr 11th
Mallon 28th
Matthew 14th

Another poor attempt to pick the winner of a LPGA event. Discounted Jones who had been #3 in my ratings and ahead of the three I chose because I thought her winning days would be getting thin. Should have abandoned that angle when successfully picking Fred Couples last month!