Giant Eagle LPGA Classic
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Lorena Ochoa to win 18/1 e.w. @
William Hill
Siding with the rookie again. She was never in contention
last week and so should be refreshed compared to many. This is a far weaker
field and she is generally the 3rd favourite, which is entirely justified in
term of ability. She will win soon.
Grace Park to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Park really did give Annika a run for her money and
eventually only lost out via a playoff. That should be ample enough reason to
avoid her this week, but this has clearly been factored into SkyBet's price and
it now looks a little large. Not only did she win the Michelob Light Open last
month as well as finish 2nd last week, but she finished 3rd on this course last
year. Should do well if not exhausted.
Hee-Won Han to win 28/1 e.w. @ Five
Dimes
The same should apply to Han who set the early running last
week until the last two rounds. She eventually finished 11th, but it was only
the second time in her last six events that she has finished outside the top-10.
Her form is excellent and it had not been that way when she visited in the last
two years. She will record her best finish on this course this week and is
certainly capable of claiming her maiden win against this field.
Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Dorothy Delasin to beat Beth Bauer -118 @
Expekt
Straightforward selection. Bauer's best finish in her last
eight events has been 59th, she trails Delasin 1-10-0 h2h over the past three
months and Delasin has finished 1st and 3rd in the last two years here.
Lorie Kane to beat Dorothy Delasin -145 @ Five
Dimes
Will oppose the course specialist with Kane though. Bauer's
form has been awful, but Delasin's has hardly been impressive. Kane has finished
ahead of Delasin in each of the last three weeks and though she has yet to play
this course, she does look set for a good week.
Catriona Matthew to beat Rachel Teske -114 @ Centrebet
Straightforward again. Matthew did finish ahead of Teske on
the only occasion they have played here (last year) and leads her 8-1-1 h2h over
the past three months, the only reverse being last week.
Jenny Rosales to beat Mhairi McKay -118 @
Expekt
Same here. Rosales leads McKay 8-2-0 h2h over the past three
months and finished in the top-10 last year to beat her opponent.
Annika Sorenstam to beat Se Ri Pak -195 @ Five
Dimes
Steep odds, but considering that Sorenstam leads Pak 5-1-0
h2h over the past three months, there is value here. Over any reasonable length
of time, she holds the necessary 2:1 win ratio in this matchup to justify the
value. This is her first time on this course, but a finish of 41st last year is
hardly impressive for a player of Pak's abilities and she is unlikely to improve
much on that position unless she improves her driving.
1st round play (1.5 units):
Annika Sorenstam to beat Se Ri Pak -160 @ Five
Dimes
1st round update: 1-0-0; +1.5 units
Sorenstam/Pak WON by 1
No 2nd round plays.
3rd round play (1.5 units):
Annika Sorenstam to beat Se Ri Pak -175 @ Five
Dimes
3rd round update: 0-0-1; +0.00 units
Sorenstam/Pak TIED (Push)
Final update:
Matchups: 3-2-0; +1.02 units
Delasin/Bauer LOST by 5
Kane/Delasin WON by 7
Matthew/Teske LOST by 7
Rosales/McKay WON by 18
Sorenstam/Pak WON by 2
18-holes: 1-0-1; +1.50 units
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Ochoa 30th
Park 11th
Han mc
Loss on the event and never really looked liked making a
profit. Enough said. |