John Q. Hammons Hotel Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Juli Inkster to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James
With just two years of course form to go on, siding with players who are simply far better than Stan James give them credit. They appear to have placed much more weight on those two years of course form. Inkster finished 42nd last year, but she had missed two of her three cuts so confidence rather than the course was probably the cause. There are no such concerns at the moment, having won twice and finished in the top-10 in eight of her last ten starts. Even if she doesn't win, she should finish very close to a place win.

Rosie Jones to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
The same can be said for Jones. She finished 31st last year, but had missed the cut and had been 30th in her two previous starts, plus she finished 10th in the inaugural year (2001). She made her first start for over a month last week after the death of her mother and despite a slow start looked a strong challenger to Kung for the title until the final round was washed out. With form similar to Inkster's - one win and seven top-10 finishes in her last eight starts - it is even more of a mystery why Jones is this price.

Beth Daniel to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James
And the same with Daniel. She was coming off a 48th place finish in the State Farm Rail Classic last year, when she finished only 42nd on her debut at Tulsa CC. But with all of her last five finishes being in the top-15, including one win, the concerns that she, like Inkster and Jones, had about her form coming into this event last year are certainly not there this year. Between them, these three selections have won four times in the last three months so there is good reason to expect at least one of them to go close again this week.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Beth Daniel to beat Laura Davies -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Davies finished 2nd last week, but that was on a course on which she had played well in the past. This week, she tees it up on a course on which she has never played so who knows which Laura Davies will turn up this week. Siding with a very consistent (and competitive) veteran who has played this course beforehand and leads Davies 3-0-0 h2h in the last three months.

Meg Mallon to beat Laura Davies -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Same story here. Mallon was 5th last year and has finished 2nd in two of her last four starts. She should not be too far from the leaderboard again this week, which is very questionable for Davies.

Meg Mallon to beat Jennifer Rosales -125 @ Expekt
Two top-10 finishes in her last two starts is good form from Rosales, but just feel that that is about as good as it gets for the player from the Philippines. Mallon is simply the better player.

Juli Inkster to beat Lorena Ochoa -118 @ Centrebet
There is little doubt that Ochoa will be a household name in the future, though she will face some very though competition from other, younger, exciting prospects in the women's golf in the next few years. But this season is very much a mixed bag for the Mexican and she missed her first cut as a professional last week (she withdrew after the 1st round of the 2002 U.S. Women's Open when an amateur for her only other weekend off). Inkster is simply more consistently at the top of her game.

Rosie Jones to beat Candie Kung -102 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Playing the week after winning an event is normally associated with a letdown. Last week she defied that trend and won for the second time in as many weeks, though it must be remembered that it was a win on the back of a washed out final round so we do not know how she would have dealt with the pressure on the final day. So to play after winning in the previous two weeks will surely lead to a major letdown. Will certainly side with the outright selection who has one win and seven top-10 finishes in her last eight starts.
(Also available at BetandWin and Expekt)

Rosie Jones to beat Rachel Teske -118 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Teske has failed to rediscover the form that netted her back-to-back wins in June with just two top-10 finishes in her last seven starts. That does not measure up to Jones' record of accumulating top-10 finishes and so will side with the ever-consistent veteran again.

Cristie Kerr to beat Becky Morgan -111 @ BetandWin
Morgan finished well down the leaderboard on her return to the LPGA Tour last week and behind Kerr. It was a similar record on this course last year with Morgan missing the cut and Kerr finishing 3rd. She may not be in quite the form that she was last year, but seems to have an edge over the Welsh player who was overlooked for the Solheim Cup unlike the American.

3rd round play (3 units):

Cristie Kerr to beat Angela Stanford -125 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-1-0; -3.75 units

Kerr/Stanford LOST by 2

Final update:

Matchups: 1-5-0; -13.95 units

Daniel/Davies LOST by 4
Mallon/Davies LOST by 5
Inkster/Ochoa LOST by 5
Jones/Kung LOST by 3
Jones/Teske LOST by 1
Kerr/Morgan WON by 6

18-holes: 0-1-0; -3.75 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Inkster mc
Jones 15th
Daniel 45th

Ouch!