Kellogg-Keebler Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Lorena Ochoa to win 18/1 @ SkyBet
With no Pak and Sorenstam surely drained after last week's efforts, this represents an excellent opportunity for Ochoa to finally break her Tour duck. McKay and Sorenstam were 1-2 in both places and greens in regulation last year and such a emphasis on this part of her game should suit Ochoa. She has been getting closer to that Tour win with top-3 finishes in her last two events and these are hard odds to ignore with five places as well.

Cristie Kerr to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
She was available at 66/1 earlier in the day with Bet365, but is now 50/1 tops so will officially make the play at SkyBet for the better place terms. She is the only one of this week's selections to have played on this course last year, but she missed the cut and hence the price. But her form had been faltering after her maiden Tour win and she had been in contention after the 1st round only to lose her game completely with a 2nd round 79. She hasn't won this year, but she still looks to be in particularly good form with two runners-up spots and two further top-15 finishes in her last five starts and is a potential title winner this week.

Catriona Matthew to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Matthew displayed again on Sunday why she is more a title contender than a winner, but the odds from Stan James are so out of line with other books that the place-only odds should be a poor relation to these. Like the other two selections, she currently sits in the top-10 in greens in regulation on Tour and has shown promising form all year. She should contend again and maybe, just maybe, she will finish off the job this week!

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Dottie Pepper -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Ammaccapane finished 2nd last year (Pepper was injured at the time) and currently leads 6-0-1 h2h over the past three months. Very close to a max play!

Cristie Kerr to beat Pat Hurst -111 @ Centrebet
Hurst struggled on this course last year and continued to do the same this season. She does have two top-5 finishes in 2003, but no other top-10s and missed the cut last week. Will certainly side with an outright selection who has been so consistent in 2003 and leads 7-2-0 h2h over the past three months.

Michele Redman to beat Pat Hurst -118 @ Expekt
Redman hasn't quite been as consistent this term but with three top-10 finishes in her last seven starts, she is still very competitive. Having finished 2nd last year as well, there is every reason to expect another good week and a win here in the process.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Lorena Ochoa to beat Juli Inkster -127 @ Five Dimes
Wendy Doolan to beat Wendy Ward -115 @ Five Dimes
Candie Kung to beat Dottie Pepper -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 1-2-0; -4.16 units

Ochoa/Inkster LOST by 4
Doolan/Ward WON by 1
Kung/Pepper LOST by 1

3rd round play (1.5 units):

Christina Kim to beat Natalie Gulbis -115 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-0-1; +0.00 units

Kim/Gulbis TIED (Push)

Final update:

Matchups: 1-2-0; -0.44 units

Ammaccapane/Pepper WON by 4
Kerr/Hurst LOST by 6
Redman/Hurst LOST by 1

18-holes: 1-2-0; -4.16 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Ochoa 19th
Kerr 61st
Matthew 5th

Disappointing return on the event that was so close to being different. The matchups would have finished in profit had Redman not bogeyed the easy par-5 final hole and so finished one shot behind Hurst. The outrights would have finished in a very healthy profit had Matthew shot one shot less and so finished 3rd. Little consolation when finishing 9 units down on the event.