Michelob Light Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Lorena Ochoa to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill and Paddy Power
Very surprised to see such high odds for the rookie; SkyBet offer half this price. She had a very poor draw last week - last group in the 1st round in a three-round event and still finished in the top-20. It was the eighth time in her last nine events that she has finished in the top-20 and that includes a top-3 in this year's major to date. With the course being used for the first time, she is at less of a disadvantage of being a rookie and will surely win several times this year.

Michele Redman to finish in the top-four 12.5/1 @ Centrebet
Siding with players to be placed for the remaining selections with such a strong field. Redman has has been able to reproduce her impressive form from the second half of 2002 with top-20 finishes in three of her last five starts and in one of her 'failures' (she finished 21st in the Nabisco Championship), she had been 4th at the cut. Last week her scores worsened in each round and after failing to be in contention after the 1st day, there is nothing alarming about that. Hopefully, she will be fresher from coasting over the weekend.

Beth Daniel to finish in the top-four 16.5/1 @ Centrebet
Daniel retains her place in the selections after playing so well for 36 holes last week and is now at much bigger odds than last week's 9/1 for a top-5 place. With all four starts this year resulting in top-15 finishes, there is every reason to expect Daniel to be in contention at some stage this week and it is certainly more likely than Centrebet think!

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Rosie Jones to beat Sophie Gustafson -118 @ Expekt
If this is a course where accuracy will be rewarded, then Jones merits the call here. She ranks 11th in driving accuracy this year (78%) against 128th for Gustafson (63%) and coming into this event in comparable form, this looks to be another solid top-20 finish for Jones.

Mi-Hyun Kim to beat Hee-Won Han +100 @ Five Dimes
Will gladly take these odds on Kim. She has finished outside the top-20 just once this season (three of six starts for Han) and is another who should excel on a course where length is not paramount. She has beaten Han in the last two common events and should continue that run.

Karrie Webb to beat Hee-Won Han -154 @ Expekt [3 units]
Really looking for a big week from Webb this week. She has been blighted by one bad round in each of her last four tournaments and it may be that the off-season weight training and swing adjustments have taken a little longer to bed in than expected, but this is the type of course that should suit her and she has shown for all but one round each week that she is approaching he best golf. Han cannot compete at that level and this would be down to Webb to lose.

Karrie Webb to beat Lorena Ochoa -125 @ Centrebet
Partly a hedge play against the outright play on Ochoa, but as above I am expecting a very high finish from the Australian this week. If staying on the fairway is going to be very important, then the course should suit Webb far more and Ochoa is more likely to completely disappear off the leaderboard if she struggles.

1st round plays (1.5 units):

Rosie Jones to beat Beth Daniel -112 @ Five Dimes
Catriona Matthew to beat Juli Inkster -118 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 0-2-0; -3.45 units

Jones/Daniel LOST by 2
Matthew/Inkster LOST by 1

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Cristie Kerr to beat Lorena Ochoa +115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Natalie Gulbis to beat Suzann Pettersen +103 @ Five Dimes
Laura Davies to beat Pat Hurst -125 @ Five Dimes
Akiko Fukushima to beat Becky Morgan -118 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-1-0; +4.95 units

Kerr/Ochoa WON by 1
Gulbis/Pettersen LOST by 2
Davies/Hurst WON by 3
Fukushima/Morgan WON by 5

Mid-point update:

Jones/Gustafson Trails by 1
Kim/Han Leads by 1
Webb/Han Trails by 2
Webb/Ochoa Trails by 6

Ochoa 1st
Redman 35th
Daniel 27th

Good position at the cut with Ochoa in the lead and yet to drop a shot in the tournament, while the matchups are close. Could be a long weekend!

No 3rd round plays.

4th round play (1.5 units):

Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Donna Andrews -115 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 1-0-0; +1.50 units

Ammaccapane/Andrews WON by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 2-1-1; +2.36 units

Jones/Gustafson LOST by 2
Kim/Han WON by 3
Webb/Han WON by 4
Webb/Ochoa TIED (deadheat)

18-holes: 4-3-0; +3.00 units

Outrights: 2-1; +3.75 units

Ochoa 2nd
Redman 42nd
Daniel 48th

Good turn-a-round on the matchups to ensure a profitable event, the only one this week. Good comeback from Ochoa having lost the lead and her game during the 3rd round, but finished one shot short. Will not see 40/1 on her again!