Mizuno Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Grace Park to win 11/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Stan James
Just missed out as a win-only selection last week, but saw little reason to drop her from the selections this week. It took her run of consecutive top-10 finishes to seven and eleven from her last twelve starts. She deserves to win more than one title this year and given that last year she finished 1st and 2nd in the two co-sanctioned LPGA and JLPGA events last year, there are no question marks over her ability to travel. Sorenstam has only won two of her last nine starts so she is far from invincible.

Sophie Gustafson to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365, SkyBet, Stan James, William Hill and Paddy Power
Gustafson is one who has won recently and in terms of win ratio, she better Sorenstam in current form: three wins in her last seven starts. The first two of these were Ladies European Tour wins (she also won the Ladies Irish Open in June), but it is her win at the Samsung World Championship that has drawn most attention. Given the overwhelmingly unfavourable opinion in the media on her win, her alleged rules infringement and her relationship with the LPGA Tour Commissioner, she played extremely well to finish 13th last week in Korea. With this event being held in Japan, she is again partially shielded from the North American media and should prosper on a course on which she finished 2nd in 2000. Another win should silent the doubters.

Yuri Fudoh to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
I don't understand this price. Maybe if the event was in North America, but not in Japan. Fudoh has totally dominated the Japan Ladies Tour this season. She has won five times in seventeen JLPGA Tour starts, and until last week (8th), she finished outside the top5 on only two occasions - the first (in April) was after a six-week layoff and the second (in July) was after playing in the U.S. Women's Open the previous week where she finished in the top-20. And it is not as though the JLPGA players have been also-rans in this event - last year they had two players in the top-10 and in each year from 1999 to 2001 they had four of the top-10 places. Fudoh herself was 3rd in 2000 and has been 3rd and 6th with one round to play in the last two years. She should be half these odds!

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Rachel Teske to beat Laura Davies -118 @ Expekt
Davies finished 2nd last week to Teske's 8th, but just can't compete with Teske on a regular basis. The Australian has finished in the top-10 in five of her last six starts, plus she has won twice on the LPGA Tour this year and that is something that Davies has been unable to achieve for the last two-and-a-half years.
(also available at Centrebet)

Candie Kung to beat Soo-Yun Kang -118 @ Expekt
Little to choose between these two in current form, but this will be the first time that Kang has played in Japan so her lack of experience of the course and the environment is the deciding factor here.

Catriona Matthew to beat Suzann Pettersen -118 @ Expekt [4.5 units]
Similar story here. Pettersen has not played in Japan until this week and despite a 6th place finish last week, this has not been a particularly good season for the Norwegian player. Matthew is just very consistent on the LPGA Tour and she has been the same on this course in the last four years.

Gloria Park to beat Suzann Pettersen +100 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
Park is not so consistent, but she equalled her best finish of the season (10th) in the Longs Drugs Challenge in October and last week she closed with a 62 to finish 2nd. She should now be upbeat this week, particularly as she was 4th last year, having been Sorenstam's closest challenger throughout the event.

Annika Sorenstam to beat Se Ri Pak -150 @ Five Dimes
The other two books price Sorenstam -200 and that looks more realistic. She leads Pak 10-3-0 h2h in common events this year, has won this event for the last two years and also won the Nichirei Cup on this Tour earlier in the year. Pak has never won in Japan.
(also available at Expekt and Centrebet)

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; +0.42 units

Teske/Davies WON by 4
Kung/Kang LOST by 5
Matthew/Pettersen LOST by 4
Park/Pettersen WON by 7
Sorenstam/Pak WON by 9

Outrights: 2-1; +3.75 units

Park 2nd
Gustafson 2nd
Fudoh 5th

Very nearly a very good return on the outrights. If only Fudoh had birdied the par-5 last hole to finish joint 2nd ... Still a good result on the event though.