Kraft Nabisco Championship

Outright plays (0.75 units):

Laura Davies to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Substantial price difference between Hill's offer and the 20-22/1 generally available. Had an excellent season on the Australian LPGA Tour with one win and two runners-up spots in three starts earlier this year and has been in contention throughout each round of the two LPGA Tour events this year. She has a decent record in this event with three top-3 finishes in the last nine years and may yet gain the two points she needs to enter the LPGA Hall of Fame.

Cristie Kerr to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
A very generous price and five places as well! She has two good finishes in the two LPGA Tour events this year (13th and 9th) with six of eight rounds in the 60s and there were signs that her game was in excellent shape for Mission Hills. Last week she ranked 2nd in greens in regulation and 1st in ball-striking (sum of rankings from driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation). She also finished 3rd last year. Would have looked for place-only terms, but can't pass up these odds.

Rosie Jones to finish in the top-four 12.5/1 @ Centrebet
Can't really see Jones winning in this company, so will definitely take place-only terms here. She improved after a poor opening round to finish 15th last week and looks to be moving back to the form that saw her record top-10 finishes in her last six events of 2002. She finished in the top-4 in three of those events and with six top-4 finishes in the past year (23 strokeplay events), plus a 3rd place finish in this event last year, there looks to be value in these odds.

Matchup plays (0.75 units unless stated):

Cristie Kerr to beat Beth Bauer -118 @ Expekt [2.25 units]
No comparison in form between these two. Whereas Kerr has two top-15 finishes this season, Bauer has finished 30th and 62nd. They did tie for 35th place in this event two years ago, but that was the last time that Bauer played in this event and Kerr is a very different player now.

Cristie Kerr to beat Dorothy Delasin -112 @ Five Dimes
Very little to pick between these two this year and on this course. They have tied once and then Delasin beat Kerr by a single shot last week, while they have both beaten the other once in the last two years. Just rate Kerr as the far better player and more likely to contend in a major championship.

Rosie Jones to beat Laura Diaz -111 @ William Hill and Gamebookers
Doubling-up on another of the outright selections. Continuing to oppose Diaz who has a disappointing year so far. She played poorly in Australia, missed the cut as defending champion in the Welch's/Fry Championship and secured her best finish of the year with 20th last week. She has finished behind Jones in both the LPGA events this year and cannot boast the same course form either.

Rosie Jones to beat Rachel Teske -118 @ Expekt [1.5 units]
Opposing Teske again who has failed to reproduce her impressive Australian form where she had three top-10 finishes. In her two events on the LPGA Tour she has finished well behind Jones on both occasions and apart from a 2nd place finish in 2001, she has a very poor record on this course as well.

Sophie Gustafson to beat Vicki Goetze-Ackerman -118 @ Expekt
Opposing a player who has missed both her cuts this year. Gustafson's form this year has been solid despite the controversy over her relationship with Ty Votaw, the LPGA Tour Commissioner and she has finished in the top-25 in the last two years here.

Christina Kim to beat Natalie Gulbis -110 @ SkyBet
Neither player has played in this event until this week, so will gladly side with the player who has finished higher up the leaderboard in both the LPGA Tour events this season.

Mi Hyun Kim to beat Hee-Won Han -111 @ Centrebet
Apart from a purple patch in April/May last year, Han has rarely shown herself to be a consistent top-10 player on this Tour and her 25th place finish in this event is her best performance in a major. Siding with Kim who finished ahead of her last year and has finished in the top-10 of the Money List with at least 10 top-10 finishes in each of her four years on this Tour.

Hee-Won Han to beat Patricia Meunier-Lebouc -111 @ William Hill and Gamebookers [1.5 units]
Opposing Meunier-Lebouc who has struggled to make the transition from the Ladies European Tour to the LPGA Tour even though she did win the State Farm Classic last year. Last week's 3rd place finish was only her 5th top-10 finish in 33 LPGA Tour starts and her appearance in this week's matchup is an over-reaction to last week's performance, particularly as she has never previously played this course. Will side the less inconsistent Han.

Meg Mallon to beat Patricia Meunier-Lebouc -118 @ Expekt
Both have had one good LPGA event this year, but the big difference is course form. Meunier-Lebouc is a Mission Hills rookie, while Mallon has an excellent record here, including two top-3 finishes in the last four years.

Mid-point update:

Kerr/Bauer Leads by 5
Kerr/Delasin Trails by 3
Jones/Diaz Leads by 1
Jones/Teske Leads by 5
Gustafson/Goetze-Ackerman Trails by 2
Kim/Gulbis Leads by 4
Kim/Han Trails by 4
Han/Meunier-Lebouc Trails by 9
Mallon/Meunier-Lebouc Trails by 10

Davies 12th
Kerr 12th
Jones 16th

Nothing decided at the cut, but need an improvement for anything other than a break-even event. Seriously underestimated Meunier-Lebouc's form as she leads the event by two. Best hope lies with the outrights who are all in striking distance of a return.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-5-0; +0.15 units

Kerr/Bauer WON by 7
Kerr/Delasin WON by 1
Jones/Diaz LOST by 3
Jones/Teske WON by 9
Gustafson/Goetze-Ackerman LOST by 4
Kim/Gulbis WON by 4
Kim/Han LOST by 9
Han/Meunier-Lebouc LOST by 12
Mallon/Meunier-Lebouc LOST by 16

Outrights: 1-2; +0.60 units

Davies 4th
Kerr 11th
Jones 11th

Small profit on the event as Kerr sneaked a win against Delasin and Davies played very solidly over the weekend to secure the place return. Did like a lot of matchups this week and lost more than half of them including two against the eventual winner, so very glad to come out of this event in the black.