CJ Nine Bridges Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Grace Park to win 9/1 @ William Hill
Last year's event descended into farce as the weekend weather included temperatures no greater than 40 degrees and winds that were gusting up to 35mph. The average score in the final round was 80.75, so course form should be treated with caution or only looking at the first two days. In that respect, Park was 2nd to Pak before the very difficult final round and if the weather is not disruptive this week, she could certainly improve on that mark. She has finished in the top-10 in ten of her last eleven starts and few can mark that consistency. She followed her final round 82 to finish 11th with a win and a runners-up spot in the next two weeks in Japan, so more than many of her American colleagues on the LPGA Tour, she has clearly shown she can win in this company outside North America.

Hee-Won Han to win 20/1 e.w. @ William Hill
With her odds generally around 14/1, this is a rather generous offering from William Hill. She may not be in quite the same form as in July/August when she had five top-3 finishes in six events, including two wins, but in South Korea she should have a considerable advantage over much of the field. These odds could only be expected for the 4th-ranked player in the Rolex Player of the Year award when the #1 was playing, but she isn't.

Mi-Hyun Kim to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill
It has been a disappointing year for Kim following swing changes and these odds reflect that, but she is certainly capable of competing this week. She had been 3rd before the final round last year, so her course form is basically good and she will have been able to get the full-time support from her club manufacturers back in South Korea as this was not available on the LPGA Tour and is a big problem if swing changes are being made. She should be 25/1 at the very most and completes a trio of home selections.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Gloria Park to beat Beth Bauer -123 @ Five Dimes
Park's form is slowly improving with three top-10 finishes in her last eight events. Nothing like the form that has netted her wins in each of the last two LPGA Tour seasons, but with Bauer having just one top-10 in the entire LPGA season (23 events), she should win this even without home advantage.

Heather Bowie to beat Becky Morgan -105 @ Five Dimes
Morgan has struggled to recapture the form that she had in the Spring/early Summer. After returning in August from over a month in Europe, her best finish on the LPGA Tour has been 24th. She has finished behind Bowie in the last two LPGA Tour events and these look good odds for Bowie to continue that run.

Catriona Matthew to beat Carin Koch -112 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
In the last two LPGA Tour events, Matthew finished in the top-10 while Koch finished 47th and missed the cut. The Swede has simply failed to recapture her previous form on any consistent basis since returning from pregnancy in the middle of this season. Little comparison with the ultra-consistent Matthew.

Jung Yeon Lee to beat Janice Moodie -115 @ Five Dimes
Moodie has also been struggling with just four top-10 finishes since her win at the Asahi Ryokuken International Championship 18 months ago. So she comes into this event in indifferent form and with no course experience against a player who did play here last year, is a 'home' player and has finished 13th and 2nd in the last two LPGA Tour events. Should be no contest!

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +5.93 units

Park/Bauer WON by 21
Bowie/Morgan LOST by 8
Matthew/Koch WON by 8
Lee/Moodie WON by 10

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Park 2nd
Han 33rd
Kim 20th

Small profit on the event thanks to the matchups. In the only loss in that category, Bowie had been just one shot behind Morgan, but went the wrong way on Sunday. Elsewhere, the margins of victory were very good. Almost got a return on the matchups. Grace Park did finish joint top among the LPGA players, but could not catch the surprise winner, Shi Hyun Ahn, a KLPGA rookie, who led from start to finish.