ShopRite LPGA Classic

Outright plays will follow later when Five Dimes have released their top-5 lines.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Pat Hurst to beat Paula Marti -125 @ Expekt
It must be hugely frustrating for Marti that she didn't gain full exemption to this Tour at Q-School. She has spent the last two months on the Ladies European Tour and despite two top-10 finishes from five starts, she has hardly been playing to her potential. When she did get into two LPGA Tour events in March, she missed one cut and finished 60th in the other. She is playing under pressure to earn her card from her limited appearances rather than having to return to Q-School and that is not conducive to good golf. Hurst has been very steady this term and was 2nd on this course in 2000, she should have enough experience to win this match.

Michele Redman to beat Pat Hurst -110 @ SkyBet [3 units]
Redman's course history has not been as good as Hurst's in recent years, but she does remain far more competitive. She has finished ahead of Hurst in four of their last five common events and the solitary loss was by a single shot. Hurst may look good for another top-30 finish, but Redman will have far loftier hopes this week and should finish ahead once again.

Michele Redman to beat Natalie Gulbis -130 @ Five Dimes
Also siding with Redman to beat Gulbis. Again her opponent has the better course history - she finished 5th on her debut here last year - but Redman has been finishing ahead of her opponent on a consistent basis, including the last two common events. Gulbis also appears to be vying for the 'Iron Woman' mantle. She played in 25 of the 28 events for which she was eligible last year and in 12 of 13 this year, plus one event in Japan in May. This will be her sixth consecutive week of competitive golf and it will surely be reflected in some poor finishes when not in contention early in the event. It may have been one reason she finished a lowly 47th last week, failing to break par in any round.

Catriona Matthew to beat Sophie Gustafson -120 @ Five Dimes
Gustafson has just won the Ladies Irish Open, but she will face much greater competition from this weak LPGA field than she did that week. She had missed two of her previous three cuts on the LPGA Tour and apart from Ireland, there is no comparison in form between these two. Matthew has two top-10 finishes in the last four years here and only once in three times has she finished behind her opponent on this course (2000) and that was by a single stroke.

Cristie Kerr to beat Suzann Pettersen -110 @ Five Dimes
Both missed the cut last year, but Kerr was in poor form at the time and was coming off another missed and at least she can point to a 3rd place finish the year before. This year she is well-rested having not played in the last two events, but has finished ahead of her opponent in three of their last four common events.

Patricia Meunier-Lebouc to beat Michelle Wie -105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
There's too much hype about Wie at the moment. Yes, she just became the youngest winner of the U.S. Women's Amateur Public Links and she did finish in the top-10 of the Nabisco Championship in March, but she finished 33rd in her only other LPGA Tour start this season (Chick fil-A Charity Championship), where she also finished behind Meunier-Lebouc and she missed the cut in her three LPGA Tour events last year. If she were to riding on the crest of a wave from last week's win, then it is very likely to run out of steam by the weekend. Last week, she played 36 holes of qualifying, followed by five 18-hole matches to reach the finals, and 36 holes against an NCAA champion who gave her all she could handle on a sticky, sweltering afternoon along the Atlantic Ocean. She is not in the same bracket as Meunier-Lebouc and won't be for another year or two. Expekt goes a far more realistic -154 on Meunier-Lebouc.

1st round plays (1.5 units):

Patricia Meunier-Lebouc to beat Michelle Wie -112 @ Five Dimes
Lorie Kane to beat Laura Diaz -122 @ Five Dimes

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Rosie Jones to win 12/1 e.w. @ SkyBet  (13/1 Five Dimes, but poor place terms)
Difficult to look past the first two selections and hopefully one of them will gain more than a place win if Sorenstam is still suffering from exhaustion. Jones won the Asahi Ryokuken International last month and has maintained that form with finishes of 6th, 5th and 3rd since. She should certainly be able to continue that form in this event as she has prospered on all three courses used since the inaugural event in 1986. She has never won this event, but has five top-5 finishes and has finished in the top-15 on each occasion since the event returned to the Marriott Seaview Resort in 1998.

Juli Inkster to win 17/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes
Inkster did win the inaugural event in 1986 which was held on this course and again in 1988 at Sand Country Club. Like Jones, she has played particularly well since the event returned to its original home with four top-4 finishes in the last five years. Again like Jones, she won an event in May (LPGA Corning Classic) when she was very impressive in closing with a 62 to edge out Matthew and has been in very form recently just one finish outside the top-10 in her last four events.

Soo-Yun Kang to finish in the top-four 25/1 @ Centrebet
Kang has never played this course, let alone played in the inaugural event in 1986, and she cannot lay claim to a Tour win in May. However, she finish 2nd alongside Sorenstam in the LPGA Takefuji Classic in April. She appears to have retained that form with two further top-10 finishes in her last four events and should stand a much better than 25/1 chance of finishing in the top-four.

1st round update: 0-2-0; -3.51 units

Meunier-Lebouc/Wie LOST by 2
Kane/Diaz LOST by 3

2nd round plays (1.5 units):

Catriona Matthew to beat Laura Davies -125 @ Five Dimes
Brandie Burton to beat Paula Marti -108 @ Five Dimes
Rosie Jones to beat Michelle Wie -127 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-1-1; -0.12 units

Matthew/Davies WON by 4
Burton/Marti LOST by 1
Jones/Wie TIED (Push)

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Laura Diaz to beat Becky Morgan -140 @ Five Dimes
Catriona Matthew to beat Natalie Gulbis -127 @ Five Dimes
Janice Moodie to beat Paula Marti -105 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +0.90 units

Diaz/Morgan LOST by 5
Matthew/Gulbis WON by 2
Moodie/Marti WON by 2

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +5.48 units

Hurst/Marti LOST by 4
Redman/Hurst WON by 7
Redman/Gulbis WON by 4
Matthew/Gustafson WON by 6
Kerr/Pettersen LOST by 7
Meunier-Lebouc/Wie WON by 10

18-holes: 3-4-1; -2.73 units

Outrights: 1-2; -1.20 units

Jones 29th
Inkster 3rd
Kang mc

Small profit on the event with the 18-hole plays being costly this week. A good profit on the matchups and Inkster was in a good position to win, but never really challenged Stanford.