U.S. Women's Open
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Lorena Ochoa to win 33/1 e.w. @
Stan James
Backed two weeks ago for the Wegmans Rochester LPGA and I thought her
odds would now be too short to be backed again, but I was wrong. She
finished in the top-3 in the opening major of the year and recorded her
4th top-3 of the year two weeks ago. She is in fine form and has
excellent greens in regulation stats, which will be important this week.
Still don't think we'll see 33/1 on her many more times this year.
Grace Park to win 33/1 e.w. @
Stan James
The Witch Hollow course at Pumpkin Ridge has been considerably
lengthened since Alison Nicholas won the event in 1997 and will now be
the longest-ever U.S. Women's Open course and only a par-71. Rosie Jones
had been on the shortlist, but against this lengthening of the course,
Grace Park gets the nod. Ochoa may have finished in the top-3 of the
Nabisco Championship, but Park took Sorenstam to a playoff for the 2nd
major of the year. It was her second runners-up spot of the season, but
she has also won once (Michelob Light Open) this year and was 3rd on her
last outing. She has had two top-10 finishes in this event in the last
four years and is certainly playing well enough to add another.
Lorie Kane to win 50/1 e.w. @
BetInternet
and
Stan James
Extremely large price for a player who has finished in the top-3 in her
last two events or three in her last five! Like the other selections,
she has good greens in regulation stats and will not be harmed by the
length of the course. She played her first U.S. Women's Open on this
course in 1997 and has since finished in the top-20 on all five
occasions, including 4th in 1999. This looks a more open event than in
previous years and she should certainly feature at some stage.
Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Hee-Won Han to beat Laura Davies -110 @ Bet365
Apart from a 2nd place finish at the Ladies Irish Open against a much
weaker field, Davies has struggled over the past few months. As a
result, Han has a 5-1-0 h2h lead over the past three months and has the
game to among the leaders this week. Can't see Davies being in the frame
this week.
Angela Stanford to beat Pat Hurst -111 @
BetandWin
Have consistently, and profitable, opposed Hurst and will do so again
this week. He has not had a top-10 finish in her last seven events and
since finishing 4th in this event in 1997, she has steadily finished
lower down the leaderboard each year. Stanford's record in this event is
not impressive, but she had finished in the top-10 at the
Kellogg-Keebler Classic earlier in the month before she won last week.
In this form, she should certainly have her best U.S. Open to date.
Catriona Matthew to beat Pat Hurst -118 @
Centrebet
Matthew does have a good event history - two top-10 finishes in the last
four years - and has been in even better form than Stanford and for
longer. She may not have won an event this year, but she has been a very
consistent contender and this week should be no different.
Becky Morgan to beat Michelle Wie -154 @
Expekt
Opposed Wie last week and will do so again. She was suffering from her
victory in the U.S. Women's Amateur Public Links and has had little
chance to recharge the batteries, physical and mental, for this week. It
also makes it easier when the selection has finished in the top-10 in
four of her last five events.
No 1st round plays.
2nd round plays (1.5 units):
Donna Andrews to beat Mhairi McKay -120 @ Five
Dimes
Stephanie Louden to beat Ashli Bunch -115 @ Five
Dimes
Catriona Matthew to beat Cristie Kerr -139 @ Five
Dimes
2nd round update: 1-2-0; -2.03 units
Andrews/McKay LOST by 2
Louden/Bunch LOST by 1
Matthew/Kerr WON by 3
Mid-point update:
Han/Davies WON by 2
Stanford/Hurst WON by 12
Matthew/Hurst WON by 8
Morgan/Wie Trails by 3
Ochoa 31st
Park 43rd
Kane 43rd
Won three of four matchups at the cut, but offset by 2nd
round losses and some sharp movements down the leaderboard by the
outright selections. They will find it hard to catch up on this course,
so will need Morgan to beat Wie to gain some respectability for this
week's efforts.
3rd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Angela Stanford to beat Natalie Gulbis -126 @ Five
Dimes
Juli Inkster to beat Patricia Meunier-Lebouc -132 @ Five
Dimes
Leta Lindley to beat Alison Nicholas -122 @ Five
Dimes [3 units]
3rd round update: 2-0-1; + 4.50 units
Stanford/Gulbis WON by 3
Inkster/Meunier-Lebouc TIED (Push)
Lindley/Nicholas WON by 6
4th round plays (1.5 units):
Angela Stanford to beat Natalie Gulbis -125 @ Five
Dimes
Jeong Jang to beat Hilary Lunke -125 @ Five
Dimes
Suzann Pettersen to beat Mhairi McKay -125 @ Five
Dimes
4th round update: 1-0-2; +1.50 units
Stanford/Gulbis WON by 4
Jang/Lunke TIED (Push)
Pettersen/McKay TIED (Push)
Final update:
Matchups: 3-1-0; +2.19 units
Morgan/Wie LOST by 2
18-holes: 4-2-3; +3.97 units
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Ochoa 13th
Park 10th
Kane 22nd
Small profit on the event due to the matchups and
18-hole plays. All three outright plays finished in the top-25 but were
never in the hunt for a top-5 finish.
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