MasterCard Classic

FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +2.63pts

Kerr 3rd
Ochoa 5th
Koch 19th

A good event, but a poor return. Kerr headed into the final round with a two-shot lead over 2nd place and a three-shot lead over Annika Sorenstam, but was trailing before she even stood on the 4th tee as Sorenstam when on a five-hole birdie run. She did get the lead down to just one shot on the back nine, but this tournament had been lost in the first few holes. Koch threatened all week to be on the fringes of a top-five place, but also lost ground early in the round, while Ochoa was the only positive note of the final round as she overcame a poor finish on Saturday to snatch the last place.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Cristie Kerr to win 14/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, BetInternet and Victor Chandler
A three-time winner on Tour last year and ranked in the top-5 for the Tour's Money List, Scoring Average, Top-10 Finishes, etc. Kerr has become a very consistent player on this Tour and has started this season in the same form - she finished 2nd last week and a very close second to Rosales in terms of overall play. If Sorenstam is a little rusty or generally unprepared after "negotiating deals and finagling with lawyers for the past few weeks", Kerr should be there or thereabouts to take advantage.

Lorena Ochoa to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Victor Chandler
The LPGA Tour first event in Mexico since 1975 and home expectations will be high that Ochoa can deliver a famous victory. In terms of course knowledge and crowd support, she will have a big advantage this week if she can handle the pressure. She showed that she had learned a great deal from her winless rookie season by setting records for birdies, rounds in the 60s and rounds under par last year and leading the Tour in top-10 finishes. Her accuracy off the tee was a problem last year and she has been trying a new driver over the off-season. She used it to good effect in South Africa when she shot the 2nd lowest course in the individual format, but it was rather astray last week as she fell out of contention. If she can keep it straight off the tee, she really will be well-placed to secure a home victory. * William Hill and Golfinggods offer 20/1 but only 4 places *

Carin Koch to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Koch was another who impressed individually at the Women's World Cup and while she is not available at the 80/1 on offer last week, she is probably better suited to the place-only market. She has only won once on the LPGA Tour - the 2001 LPGA Corning Classic - but her form over the past year has been very impressive after struggling after giving birth to her 2nd child in April 2003. She closed out 2004 with finishes of 7th and 3rd and opened this season with another 7th place finish. That makes 10/1 rather generous on securing a top-5 finish.