Safeway International

FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +8.25pts

Ochoa 1st
Kerr 18th
Wie 12th

Thankyou Golfinggods for the 'w/o Sorenstam' market! Ochoa never relinquished the lead from the first day, but put the pressure on herself with a double-bogey on the 16th in the third round to cut her lead to one and she did exactly the same thing in the final round. So when she dropped a shot on the next hole and failed to birdie the par-five last hole, she could only manage to tie Annika's clubhouse score. With that momentum, there was only going to be one winner in the playoff and Annika won it with only a par on the first extra hole. That would have been a painful loss on the Ochoa play if it had not been for Golfinggods' market!

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Lorena Ochoa to win 12/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods (w/o Sorenstam market)
Ochoa is available at 14/1 and five places at a number of places, but looks better value in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market at just a couple of points lower. She has played well so far this season, particularly in South Africa and in Mexico where the pressure on her was immense from the home anticipation and this was not helped by being paired with Sorenstam for the first two rounds. So, playing much more freely this week and on a course where she finished 3rd last year, she should play well again this week.

Cristie Kerr to win 18/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Bet365
Surprising odds for a player who finished 2nd last year, setting the course record by two shots on the way, and has finished 2nd and 3rd in her two starts this year. That she finally buckled under the pressure from Sorenstam to relinquish the lead with just one round to play in Mexico would suggest that the 'w/o Sorenstam' market may be the better option, but there is no comparison in the odds which are half those on offer at Stan James and Bet365.

Michelle Wie to win 25/1 e.w. @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Did consider Grace Park at 18/1 in the 'w/o Sorenstam market', but she pulled out of Monday's pro-am with a back injury, so will opt for Michelle Wie instead. With just one start this year and that resulting in a 2nd place finish, it is difficult to explain why any more than 20/1 is on offer. Maybe her 19th place finish on this course last year is the reason, but it was her first start of the season so some rustiness is to be expected and she was a year younger. I would be very surprised to see her outside the top-10 this time.